South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 21st October)

Best Days: Fri: mix of small E'ly swell, peaking NE windswell and a early S'ly change - mainly favouring the southern Gold Coast (may be OK on the Sunny Coast too under an early NW wind before the S'ly arrives mid-late morning). Sat/Sun: easing S/SE swells with mainly light winds in the mornings. Biggest and best in Northern NSW.

Recap: Hope y’all made the most of Tuesday’s unreal trade swell. Winds were relatively light all day and surf size was a pretty solid 3-4ft across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, with locations south of Ballina seeing a smaller mix of trade swell and S’ly groundswell. Today we’ve seen easing trade swell (and S’ly groundswell in Northern NSW) with early light winds tending fresh N’ly across the coast, trashing all but the most protected northern corners.

This week (Thursday 22nd - Friday 23rd)

Unfortunately the southerly change originally expected Thursday morning has been stalled in the latest model runs and is now unlikely to reach the Mid North Coast until the evening, pushing through the Mid North Coast around dinnertime and then reaching the border in the early hours of Friday morning. 

Southeast QLD: Generally looks like a write-off on Thursday, with strengthening N’ly winds overpowering a small residual E’ly swell. In fact, because this northerly flow will have been around for more than a day with speeds in the 25kt range, we should see plenty of peaky NE swell at exposed north facing locations in the 3ft range. But it won't be very high quality.

Friday looks a lot better for the region. Current modelling has the southerly change into the Gold Coast around dawn, and the Sunny Coast mid-late morning (with NW winds prior to its arrival).  Although the NE windswell will be easing rapidly during this time frame, we may see some early 2-3ft sets at north facing swell magnets around dawn - more likely the Gold Coast over the Sunshine Coast, owing to the slightly longer fetch length. There’s also likely to be a lingering E’ly swell in the 2ft range at remaining open beaches. 

So once the change pushes through, the southern Gold Coast points should eventually see some clean peaky options within an hour or two. Even the Sunshine Coast may have some workable options on the beach breaks with the early norwester ahead of the southerly.

The change itself will be poorly aligned for most of the Gold and Sunshine Coast - with respect to swell potential - so I’m not expecting much of a swell increase from the south at most beaches during the day - but south swell magnets should see some 2-3ft sets (they’ll be quite bumpy and wind affected under the accompanying S’ly breeze though). 

Northern NSW: Thursday's northerly winds look like they’ll create a lot of problems for the morning, however there is a chance for a late NW trend in southern regions - probably well south of Coffs Harbour - throughout the last few hours of the day. With a building NE windswell in the 2-3ft range there should be a few options if you don’t mind the bumpy surface conditions.

Friday may see some lingering NE windswell at first light but it’ll be easing rapidly from the get go, replaced by a building short range S’ly windswell. Unfortunately Friday looks pretty ordinary for the most part as the south swell trailing the change doesn’t look especially big (maybe some 4ft+ sets at south swell magnets by the afternoon) but those locations handling the fresh S'ly breeze will be much, much smaller. Keep your expectations generally low.

This weekend (Saturday 24th - Sunday 25th)

With this southerly change being held back by a full twenty four hours, the weekend forecast has improved a little.

Essentially, the south swell we were expecting to ease on Friday will now occur on Saturday, but the system responsible for the swell will track steadily eastwards, so the pressure gradient will relax across the coast, leaving us with mainly light winds. 

Southeast QLD: No major size is likely across most of the Gold and Sunshine Coasts, unfortunately. The east swell will be but a distant memory (inconsistent 1-2ft sets at best) and with the south swell really only getting into south swell magnets (3ft sets early Saturday, smaller thereafter and half the size at most beaches) you’ll have to make the most of the morning session for the best waves. Slightly smaller surf is then forecast for Sunday. 

Local winds are looking to be light/mod SE on Saturday and NE on Sunday, with pockets of early SW winds across many regions for a few hours. The Sunshine Coast may possibly dip out on Saturday morning’s favourable winds, owing to the lingering effect of Friday’s change, but I’ll have more on this in Friday’s update.

Northern NSW: Saturday morning will see the biggest and best waves across the coast, with early sets between 3ft and maybe 5ft at south swell magnets easing steadily throughout the day (the peak in size owing to a slight intensification of the trough/low in the Central Tasman Sea on Friday morning). It'll be much smaller at beaches not open to the south, however. And by the afternoon it’ll be a foot or two smaller, with this downwards trend continuing into Sunday.

Local winds look pretty good Saturday (light and variable with sea breezes) but Sunday is at risk of a gusty afternoon nor’easter, especially in southern regions. So aim for the mornings for the best waves, in particular Saturday.

Next week (Monday 26th onwards)

Looks like we’ve got a strong southerly change pushing up the coast sometime around Tuesday, and a series of strong southerly swells accompanying the change from several sources in the Southern Ocean and Tasman Sea. 

Some model guidance has this change stalling off the North Coast and re-intensifying a trough along the coastal margin in a possible ECL setup configuration later Wednesday and through Thursday, but I’ll have more details on that in Friday’s update. 

Take home message for now: lots of south swell building Tues/Wed (mainly Northern NSW) with a chance for a possibly dynamic event somewhere along the East Coast during the second half of next week.