South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 19th October)

Best Days: Tues: peaking trade swell with mainly workable winds in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW (conditions will become N'ly affected in the south, with smaller surf). Wed: possible window of early NW winds and an easing trade swell. Thurs: small mix of residual E'ly swell and small N'ly windswell, plus an early S'ly change - probably best suited ot the southern Gold Coast.

Recap: A steady trade swell offered fun surf across many northern regions over the last few days, with the exception of the Sunshine Coast which has seen problematic winds compared to the Gold and Tweed Coasts. Wave heights built slowly through Saturday and Sunday into the 2-3ft range, and we’ve seen slightly bigger waves fill in this afternoon as the swell continues its upwards trend. Early light winds in most areas have allowed for clean morning sessions with bumpier waves through the afternoons with the sea breezes. South of Ballina, surf size was smaller throughout this period owing to its primary source (trade flow) being aimed at locations north of this region. However winds have been favourable at times.   

Snapper looking fun this morning

This week (Tuesday 20th - Friday 23rd)

TC02F didn’t quite reach the Australian threshold for Tropical Cyclones over the weekend, so it remained a Tropical Depression as it meandered through Fijian waters. However this doesn’t change the forecast a great deal as the depression still assisted in squeezing the easterly pressure gradient south of Fiji and maintaining a healthy trade flow aimed into our eastern swell window.

Southeast QLD: We’re still seeing a slow upwards trend in wave heights and this should plateau through Tuesday - probably around lunchtime and into the afternoon - with sets somewhere between 3ft and very occasionally 4ft at exposed Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches. The good news is that winds are expected to be reasonably workable for much of the day; variable early tending light to moderate onshore through the morning, then variable again into the afternoon (note: variable means it could be from any direction).

Although we should still see some solid sets early Wednesday morning, the trend will be noticeable downwards throughout the day. It’s still quite likely that the open beaches will have a few stray 3ft+ sets first thing but expect smaller surf into the middle of the day and a further decrease into the afternoon.

Wednesday’s biggest problem though will be a freshening northerly breeze. We should see early NW winds favouring the northern ends of the coast at dawn but by mid-morning it’ll probably be gusty N’ly along the Gold Coast. However, there is less of a risk of the N'ly breeze developing on the Sunshine Coast in the morning; it'll probably be closer to lunchtime. Regardless, aim for an early paddle for the best conditions.

Wednesday afternoon’s freshening N’ly winds may also whip up a minor N’ly windswell for exposed parts of the coast - specifically, the southern Gold Coast - which should mix in nicely with residual E’ly swell for Thursday morning. Sets won’t be very high (around 2ft or so) but we’ve got a fresh southerly change expected into the Gold Coast early morning, and then into the Sunshine Coast around mid-late morning. 

Initially there won’t be much swell behind the change but the cooling southerlies should allow for clean peaky waves across the southern Gold Coast points. I am less confident of anything exciting (!) on the Sunshine Coast though, as there are less workable options under southerly breezes and small residual swells (the N'ly windswell will probably be smaller here due to the shorter fetch length).

But with the approach of the change, winds should be favourably light in the morning so there should hopefully be some small peaky beach breaks on offer.

A reasonable, if only moderate-strength southerly fetch trailing the change should generate a new S’ly swell for the region on Friday. At this stage only south facing beaches will see any appreciable size - somewhere in the 3ft range - and most Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches are looking at small weak surf around 1ft to maybe 2ft. The early morning will offer the best waves for south swell magnets whilst winds are light and variable. Otherwise, keep your expectations low.

Northern NSW: Freshening N’ly winds Tuesday and Wednesday will create problems away from sheltered northern corners. We've got two swells on track - the trade swell, of which the biggest waves will be experienced in the Far North of the state, with smaller size as you track to the south (still, the Mid North Coast should peak late Tuesday in the 2-3ft range). In addition to this, a very nice southerly groundswell pushed up the southern NSW coast today, and this should reach most North Coast beaches on Tuesaday with sets around 3ft at south facing beaches. 

Tuesday looks to be the best of both days - with the lightest winds, especially north of Ballina before lunchtime - although early Wednesday may offer an early morning nor'wester in some regions. But keep a close eye on things and pounce if you see anything worthwhile. 

Thursday’s southerly change will have reached the Mid Coast well before sunrise, and although a building short range S’ly windswell is likely during the day, it won’t have much quality. South facing beaches should reach a peak in the 3-4ft range late Thursday (in the south) or early Friday (in the north) but there’s worth getting too excited about thanks to the lingering S’ly breeze. 

This weekend (Saturday 24th - Sunday 25th)

At this stage all regions look pretty slow and lacklustre with no major swell events expected to form in our swell windows. 

A building ridge across the Northern Tasman looks like it won’t be strong enough to whip up any major size, and the southerly swell due Thursday and Friday will be easing from Saturday onwards. 

Additionally, it appears that we’ll be under a moderate NE pattern for much of the weekend so whatever small swell we do see, will probably be affected by unfavourable winds. 

Let’s see if Wednesday has an improvement and upgrade in sight, because right now the outlook isn’t particularly flash for weekend warriors. 

Next week (Monday 26th onwards)

Nothing major on the cards though a strengthening trade flow south of Fiji should build easterly swells about the coast throughout the week. There’s also a suggestion for a strong southerly change and associated groundswell (from about Wednesday onwards) but I’ll take a closer look on this throughout the coming  week.