South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 12th October)

Best Days: No great days. Small combo of E'ly and S'ly swell in Northern NSW, mainly Mid North Coast, on Thurs. Small trade swell for SE Qld building over the weekend, peaking Mon, but winds look tricky. 

Recap: Plenty of waves over the weekend with a decent trade swell offering 3ft+ waves in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, with smaller surf along the Northern NSW coast. A small southerly groundswell also provided waves to exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW. Winds were light early mornings, freshening from the east across SE Qld on Saturday and north-east on Sunday, but the north-east trend was prevalent all weekend south of about Ballina. Today, freshening northerly winds have accompanied a much reduced trade swell in the north, but a small southerly groundswell has kept exposed northern corners busy across Northern NSW. 

This week (Tuesday 13th - Friday 16th)

Northern NSW: Not much happening in the short term. Northerly winds will continue into Tuesday, ahead of a southerly change advancing along the coast that’s due to reach the Mid North Coast early-mid morning, and the Far North Coast mid-late afternoon. 

Somewhere in the middle - a few hours prior to the change’s arrival - there may be a period of light variable winds as the trough slides across the coast but with only a small inconsistent southerly groundswell at the swell magnets, a minor level of trade swell and a small N’ly windswell in the water, I wouldn’t spend too much time chasing waves.

In any case, this southerly change won’t have much schtick behind it, so swell prospects into Wednesday will remain small (although the cooling effects of the southerly breeze will be very welcome). South facing beaches in Northern NSW will pick up the most size with occasional low quality 2ft+ sets but it’ll be much smaller elsewhere. 

This trough is then expected to linger in the Central/Northern Tasman Sea through Wednesday, developing a moderate E’ly fetch that’ll supply a minor increase in short range E’ly swell for the region on Thursday. At this stage it looks like the fetch will be primarily aimed towards the Lower Mid North Coast (sets building to 2-3ft), so I think we probably won’t see much size north of about Coffs Harbour or Yamba (1-2ft). 

A weak ridge across the coast will probably result in light winds, and although the trough is expected to slowly ease and tracks to the west (towards the coast) during the day, I don’t think we’ll see much strength in local winds. 

Thursday’s E’ly swell will then ease into Friday, with light winds eventually freshening from the north during the day. However we will see a small southerly groundswell push up across the coast during Thursday, peaking overnight before slowly easing through Friday. The Southern Ocean storm track has weakened since Friday’s outlook so surf size has correspondingly dropped; I don’t think we’ll see much more a couple of inconsistent feet at south swell magnets - however, the combination of this southerly groundswell and E'ly windswell could produce some fun peaky waves at open beaches though. This will be best surfed on Thursday with smaller energy padding out the last day of the working week.

Southeast Qld: Model guidance has Tuesday's southerly change nosing into the Gold Coast in the evening, and then the Sunshine Coast sometime in the early hours of Wednesday, but only just. By this stage it’ll be weakening quite a bit which means a slower northward pace so there’s not much confidence on the timing. 

Tuesday’s northerly winds and small residual swells will write off the chances of a decent wave anyway. And with no new swell expected in the wake of the change, don’t expect anything worthwhile across the Gold or Sunshine Coasts on Wednesday either. 

Unfortunately, the E’ly fetch off the trough in the Central/Northern Tasman Sea on Wednesday will be aimed at points well south of the border, so we’re not looking at much size through Thursday either. However, some time around Thursday - and we need a lot of flexibility in the timing - we’ll start to see a small increase in trade swell, originating from an intensifying E’ly fetch around Fijian waters over the next few days - initially poorly aligned in our swell window, and not especially strong either.

This swell is not really expected to show until the weekend, ahead of a peak early next week, but both Thursday (afternoon) and Friday may see some small lines of E’ly swell in the 1-2ft range at exposed beaches. Winds should be generally light and variable with sea breezes both days; if anything Friday is probably the pick. But it will be only small.

This weekend (Friday 17th - Saturday 18th)

Northern NSW: Nothing major expected this weekend. Surf size is expected to remain small, just a small combo of minor lingering S’ly groundswell across south facing beaches, and a building trade swell that’ll be biggest in the Far North (2ft Saturday building to 2-3ft Sunday, but smaller south of Byron). Northerly winds are expected on Saturday but another weak trough pushing up the coast on Sunday should result in light variable winds tending south-east during the day. But at this stage it’s pretty ho-hum sorta stuff.

Southeast Qld: It’s currently hard to tell whether we’ve got good waves in store for this weekend or not. Main reason being: the approaching trough (from the south) will probably swing winds back to the northern quadrant on Saturday, and at this stage model guidance suggests the trough won’t influence our region at all on Sunday.

This is a shame as we’ll have a building trade swell in the water that should reach 2-3ft by Sunday (possibly a shade bigger on the Sunshine Coast), with smaller surf on Saturday. However at this stage the best options will be early morning inside northern corners. 

If there’s a positive though, it’s that the northerly wind probably won’t have too much strength both days. So if you’re prepared to deal with a few lumps and bumps there’ll be waves about. Let’s review the data again on Wednesday.

Next week (Monday 19th onwards)

No major synoptic developments on the cards for next week. As such, the most size we’re expecting is a peaking trade swell around Monday or maybe even Tuesday with inconsistent 3ft+ sets at exposed beaches in SE Qld, and smaller surf with increasing southerly latitude south of Byron.

A few migrating low pressure systems south of the Tasman Sea should maintain small levels of southerly groundswell across exposed beaches in Northern NSW next week, but it’s hardly worth getting excited about. Let’s see if Wednesday has a little more promise.