South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 7th October)

Best Days: Southeast Qld: Fri/Sat/early Sun: fun trade swell on the outer points. Northern NSW: Fri/Sat/Sun in the Far North as per SE Qld, otherwise Sat/Sun look fun at sheltered south swell magnets/northern corners with winds tending N'ly. 

Recap: Tuesday delivered a building S’ly groundswell across Northern NSW, though set waves were every inconsistent. After a slow start at dawn, exposed northern ends south of Byron saw solid 4ft+ sets whilst the Tweed Coast reached 3ft+, however further north from the border surf size was very small across the Gold and Sunshine Coasts with mainly 1-1.5ft waves at most beaches, reaching 2ft+ at south swell magnets. Conditions were clean early morning but moderate northerly winds kicked in from mid-morning, easing slightly in the late afternoon at several locations. This southerly swell has eased slowly today and a similar early wind pattern has allowed for a clean window of waves for a few hours at dawn before freshening N’ly winds developed. A strong S’ly change is advancing along the NSW coast; at the time of writing it was midway between Evans Head and Byron Bay and it should reach the border around 6pm Qld time. A small S’ly windswell is building at exposed beaches along the Mid North Coast in the lee of the change. 

This week (Tuesday 6th – Friday 9th)

The S’ly change pushing along the NSW coast is expected to peter out once it's pushed well and truly into SE Qld this evening. 

Whilst core wind speeds trailing the change are quite strong (wind gusts of 35kts at Yamba, 40kts at Coffs Harbour), the fetch width is very narrow and thus won’t generate much in the way of quality new swell for the region.

Northern NSW: Exposed south swell magnets in Northern NSW will see the most size (~4ft sets) from this source on Thursday, but they’ll also be under the influence of a fresh SE breeze so quality will be limited. Protected southern corners will be cleaner but much, much smaller. 

However, we will see a stronger S’ly groundswell fill into the coast throughout the day - mainly throughout the afternoon along the Mid North Coast, reaching the Far North Coast late afternoon and holding into Friday morning. This swell was generated by an intense low pressure system south of Tasmania, linked to the current S'ly change (although the low never really pushed into the Tasman Sea). 

This is expected to generate a similar size range (3-4ft sets at south swell magnets, smaller elsewhere) but also in the water at the same time - replacing the initial S/SE windswell on Thursday morning - will be a building SE trade swell, from the combination of two ridges: one in the Coral Sea and another in the Tasman (attached to the approaching S’ly change).

Local conditions on Friday don’t look especially promising thanks to the developing ridge across the coast, although winds will be much lighter across the Mid North Coast. We’re looking at moderate to fresh SE winds in the Far North (outside chance for a brief SW’er early morning) and this chance of an early favourable pattern is much more likely south of about Yamba, and it’ll probably hold out for a little longer too, before moderate E’ly winds develop during the day. 

Southeast Qld: Thursday morning will initially start out quite small, with very little in the way of new swell. I’m not expecting much windswell behind the change, and the new S’ly groundswell arriving late will only favour exposed south swell magnets (mainly into Friday).

However, the building ridge combo looks set to deliver a great day of waves on Friday, of which we should start to see an upwards trend in mid-range SE swell from Thursday afternoon onwards - albeit small in size to begin with. Most Gold and Sunny Coast beaches are looking at 1ft surf through the morning but as we move through the afternoon it could push 2ft+ by the end of the day, including the outer points where conditions will be much more favourable (south swell magnets should see a little more size but will be heavily wind affected). 

Friday looks to be a much surer bet for good waves at the outer SE Qld points. The ridge will have strengthened late Thursday and it’s expected to extend a reasonable distance down the coast so we’re looking at a healthy spread of surf in the 3ft+ range across the Tweed and Gold Coasts, with bigger sets pushing 3-4ft+ across the Sunny Coast. The outer points may be a little smaller than this but the direction is looking really good for plenty of waves to finish the working week, under an early light SW breeze (at a few locations) tending moderate to fresh SE throughout the day - classic summer winds and surf, really.

This weekend (Saturday 10th - Sunday 11th)

Looks like we’ve got a great weekend ahead for northern locations.

Southeast Qld: The ridge is expected to hold steady into Saturday morning before easing slowly through the day. For a short range swell like this, we’ll typically see the swell trend being a day behind. So, expect Friday’s waves to hold through Saturday (3-4ft+ Sunny Coast, 3ft+ Gold Coast), and a similar wind pattern as per Friday with early light SW winds tending moderate to fresh SE. Ideal for the outer points once again (protected points will be rather small, but very clean).

Sunday’s winds are expected to veer NE into the afternoon, so make the most of the morning’s early light winds and slightly bigger surf. We’ll see wave heights slowly ease throughout the day though the early morning should still see plenty of decent options across the outer points.

Northern NSW: This trade swell will slowly taper off in size with increasing southerly latitude south of about Ballina. There’ll still be some energy in the water across the Mid North Coast - with a little more east in its direction - just not as much as further north. Friday's long period S'ly swell will also ease slowly throughout Saturday, really only showing any value at south swell magnets. 

However, this will be supplemented by a series of small long period S’ly swells moving up the NSW coast on Saturday, reaching Northern NSW throughout Sunday. At this stage set waves should be somewhere in the 3ft+ range at south swell magnets (and very inconsistent). With winds veerring to the northern and freshening - especially through Sunday - sheltered northern corners will be your best options to capitalise on Sunday’s south swell. 

Next week (Monday 12 onwards)

Nothing major in the long term outlook at this stage. We’ve got an ongoing series of deep Southern Ocean lows providing intermittent long period southerly swell for south swell magnets throughout next week and beyond. 

Elsewhere, I’ll be keeping a close eye on the ridge through the Coral Sea. The outer reaches of the model guidance is suggesting we’ll see some unseasonably strong tropical developments north of Vanuatu early next week, which I’m a little suss on right now but certainly can’t discounted (more than anything, it’ll probably just held to reaffirm the ridge and is therefore more likely to maintain some small east swell through the second half of next week). More on this in Friday’s update.