South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Monday 28th September)

Best Days: Saturday morning and Monday.

Recap: 

Saturday was a fairly average day across SE Qld as a whole, with locations north of the border picking up inconsistent 2ft surf under a southerly breeze. Sunday saw a more favourable airflow allowing for clean conditions early of a similar size to the day before. Exposed south facing beaches across northern NSW did a little better, receiving residual energy off the back of last weeks south swell. Saturday held in the 4-5ft range, easing to 3-5ft by Sunday afternoon. Southwesterly winds limited options to smaller open beaches and more protected corners.

Today, back beaches of northern NSW were in the 4ft range from a new SE swell, and remained workable even when a light seabreeze kicked in. This swell was smaller across SE Qld (2ft most beaches, bigger at swell magnets), however northeeasterly seabreeze increase by mid-afternoon causing conditions to deteriorate.

This week (Tuesday 29th - Friday 2nd):

Over the coming days, the surf will gradually fade across all coasts. This easing trend will be slowed somewhat by a subtle pulse generated by a particularly weak low sitting that has been residing over the northern Tasman today. A small and weak easterly fetch off the southern half of this system will provide inconsistent back ground energy on Tuesday, mixing in with the easing SE swell, with sets around 2ft+ early at south facing beaches, smaller later. 

By Wednesday, all coasts should have faded back to the 1-2ft range, preceding a small kick in size due Thursday.

A low moving over Tasmania today is looking to move into the swell window of southern NSW by early Wednesday morning, steering a small south/southwesterly fetch of 25-30kt winds. There are a few problems with this fetch - firstly, its south/southwesterly alignment is not optimal, but it’s also moving in an easterly direction across the swell window as opposed to a more favourable captured fetch.

Nevertheless, Thursday afternoon should see a building 2ft southerly swell across the back beaches of the Port Macqaurie to Coffs Harbour stretch, into Friday morning for south facing beaches along the Far North Coast. Models aren’t really showing this pulse up very well at this stage, so it’ll interesting to see how it handles the next update. 

Northern NSW can expect clean conditions under light northwesterly winds early on Thursday preceding an increasing northerly seabreeze. On Friday, a southerly flow will be established over NSW, however southeast QLD has a window of light offshore breezes early before a gradual southerly change.

We then have to look to the Southern Ocean for the next swell generating systems which are looking promising for healthy weekend surf.

This weekend and next week (Saturday 3rd - Sunday 4th onward):

We've got a small east swell on the way for the weekend. A small band of freshening easterly winds south of Fiji from Tuesday onwards are expected to kick up some small energy, which will be supplemented by a small S/SE swell originating from a developing ridge through the Coral Sea. There won't be much size from either source, mainly 2ft at most beaches with a few bigger sets on the Sunshine Coast, but with S'ly quarter winds on hand thanks to the ridge there should be some small peelers at the outer points both days - biggest Saturday.

As for Northern NSW, a strong front and low should pass to the south of Tasmania on Thursday evening, with a westerly core fetch of 50-55kt winds. As this system moves east, the core winds will weaken and become more west/southwesterly, becoming marginally better aligned.

However, the most important part of this system is the southwesterly quadrant of the low where a trailing fetch will have a much more well aligned, but weaker southerly fetch of around 25-35kts. All these factors taken into consideration, we are in for some good sideband energy in the 3ft range due on Saturday, but only south swell magnets in are likely to pick up this energy (note: the long period forerunners will be in late on Friday, but the size will be negligible). North of the border, the size will be tiny away from the swell magnets.

Early southwesterly breezes are a good chance on Saturday morning across northern NSW before tending light south/southeasterly. Sunday will see the surf fade across all coasts.

A second more intense system will pass across the swell window throughout Saturday but will lack a few key factors of the previous system. Firstly, the core fetch of around 55kts will maintain a stronger westerly component throughout the duration of its lifespan and will move in an easterly direction across the Tasman. However, with stronger winds, a fair amount of sideband energy will still be felt.

The other similar feature will be a southerly trailing fetch which again will be the key feature of this system. I’d expect the surf to again build into the 3ft range on Monday, exclusive to south facing beaches, with the very long period forerunners arriving the day before. Again, much of southeast QLD will miss out, apart from some weak energy at the south swell magnets and some small residual trade swell.

By this stage a ridge looks to be dominating over eastern Australia leading to generally light winds. A light offshore breeze in the morning is not out of the question along all coasts, followed up by a northeasterly seabreeze in the afternoon. Details will be more easily defined in the coming forecasts.