South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Wednesday September 23rd)

Best Days: Thursday morning at protected locations., Friday morning at protected locations.

Recap: 

A fun southeasterly swell and light offshore breezes provided clean 2ft conditions across southeast Queensland on Tuesday morning, before turning off in the afternoon as a northerly seabreeze kicked in. South of the border, clean 2-3ft peaks were on offer before the first signs of a southerly change revealed themselves along the Mid-North Coast in the afternoon.

A gusty southerly breeze was impacting the coasts of northern NSW and south east Queensland from day break this morning limiting options to protected locations. The surf has increased throughout the day, largest at the back beaches south of the border which are in the 5-6ft range and heavily wind affected.

This week (Thursday 24th - Friday 25th):

The system which we have been anticipating all week seems to be well on track. A strong cold front which moved over the nation’s southeast yesterday encountered a separate system residing over New Zealand’s North Island setting up a blocking pattern.

This blocking set up has resulted in a near stationary Tasman Low and and a very tight pressure gradient extending over the central and southern Tasman Sea. As a result we've been observing 35kt southerly winds across southern and central parts of the Tasman for close to 24 hours now. This fetch will intensify and become particularly elongated this evening in a southeasterly/northwesterly orientation creating a captured fetch, well aligned for the northern NSW coast. 

We are already seeing the effects of this system, with the surf building to a strong 6-8ft across the Hunter coast, with more size due this evening. Further north, Coffs is in the 4-6ft range this afternoon and building. The peak isn’t due until Thursday afternoon for northern New South Wales and Friday morning for South East Queensland. Exposed south facing locations south of the border have the potential to be in the 10ft range.

It’s all well and good throwing big figures out there and making ambitious plans to try and surf, but conditions are pretty ugly at the exposed spots this afternoon, and the coming days are likely to be very similar in terms of wind. The anemometer at Cape Byron spun up to near gale speed this afternoon, with occasional gusts in excess of 75km/h.

Only the more protected locations will be worth considering on Thursday and Friday, so find a point or headland and sit in the lee. This will also wash of some of the size making it much more manageable. South facing beaches will be a write-off, and only good for spectating.

As for the points however, it’s looking really good. South/southwesterly winds will be well handled each morning with plenty of size filtering in. Outer points across SE Qld can expect the surf to build into the 3-4ft range throughout Thursday and to around 4-5ft on Friday. The semi-exposed points in Northern NSW will be bigger but also more wind affected. Conversely, the more sheltered points will be smaller, in the 2-3ft range but clean and rippable. Options will become a little bit more limited each afternoon as these fresh winds tend more south/southeasterly.

This weekend (Saturday 26th - Sunday 27th) and next week:

The weekend will see the swell ease steadily off the back of this large swell event. Exposed south facing beaches will fade to around 4-6ft on Saturday in northern NSW. North of the border, the outer points shuld offer surf in the 3ft range, bigger at south facing beaches, easing further on Sunday.

Although lighter, the southerly flow will continue throughout the weekend so the only decent options will be confined to the points or more protected southern corners of the open beaches. 

A fresh southeasterly swell will begin to impact the NSW coast (particularly southern parts initially) late on Sunday afternoon/evening, more likely Monday morning further north. A small scale low sitting off the West Coast of New Zealand’s South Island will be responsible for this swell, generating 35-40kt winds throughout late Friday into Saturday morning. This fetch will weaken on Saturday after, however will extend a small captured further into the central Tasman. 

All in all, we should receive a fun pulse of southeasterly swell in the 3-4ft range on Monday, slowly easing thereafter. All coasts look to be under a generally light northwesterly airflow in the morning, leading to fun clean conditions preceding an afternoon seabreeze.

Looking further ahead, a weak low is likely to develop over northern parts of the Tasman on Sunday and Monday which will provide some back ground energy maintaining surf in the 2ft range mid-way through the week gradually fading.