South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Monday 21st September)

Best Days: Early each day at protected spots in NSW. Thursday and Friday for SE QLD.

Recap: 

The last three days has seen great surf across the SE Qld region, with surf around 3ft+ and favourable winds for the points. South of the border, winds were a little problematic Saturday but improved on Sunday morning and today, with a mix of swells from the E/SE and S. 

This week (Tuesday 22nd - Friday 25th):

Tuesday will see an easing trend right along the coast of northern NSW and southeast QLD as the current peaky east/southeasterly swell fades.

Most coasts should drop back to the 2ft range with light westerly winds for the early session; however exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW may see a few bigger waves from a small SE groundswell that originated off a low off New Zealand late Friday. A gradual southerly change will move up the coast (Port Macquarie early, Coffs by mid morning) causing conditions to deteriorate.

Further north, SE QLD will see an afternoon north-easterly sea breeze resulting in pretty ordinary conditions, so aim for the early session at the exposed beaches if you want to get wet.

All this detail is fairly insignificant ahead of a much more exciting large south swell which has been the talk of the town. The synoptic set up for the coming week looks fairly similar to the last forecast issued by Ben on Friday afternoon. 

A southerly change will move up the coast of NSW on Tuesday in the wake of a strong frontal progression. This fetch will whip up an initial pulse due Wednesday. The surf should build to around 4-6ft by the end of the day at exposed south facing beaches south of the border, while south facing beaches across the Gold Coast can look forward to surf in the 3ft range throughout the afternoon. The points will probably be smaller due to the swell direction.

This swell will be accompanied by a gusty southerly component breeze which will limit option to the more protected southern corners of the open beaches. Yes, you’ll have to sacrifice some size, but the quality will be much better.

A low anchored over the North Island of New Zealand will set up a blocking pattern late on Tuesday causing this strong front to develop into a near stationary Tasman Low on Wednesday. Central parts of the southern Tasman will become much more active with a south/southeasterly fetch becoming elongated with core winds of 35-40kts. These south-easterly fetches are predominately aimed towards northern NSW which is likely to see the largest conditions.

The surf is expected to build further to around 6-8ft at exposed south facing beaches in northern NSW late on Thursday. Believe it or not, the peak of this swell is not due until Friday morning (in Northern NSW, later in SE Qld) which has the potential to see 10ft+ surf across the back beaches of northern NSW. Again, fresh/strong south/southwesterly breezes are will continue right along northern NSW which will render back beaches a write-off. Protected bays, coves and points will be the best bet not only for protection from the wind, but to wash off a bit of size and make it more manageable.

North of the border, the end of the week is looking great. Due to the southerly tending south-easterly swell direction, we obviously have to apply the usual rule that cuts surf size heavily for the outer points (compared to south facing beaches), however we can still look forward to surf somewhere around 4-5ft on Friday. The southwesterly airflow will also be handled much better across the points, well worth keeping an eye out on both days, particularly in the mornings.

Along the Sunshine Coast, the more sheltered points will see much smaller surf than the outer points thanks to the swell direction, but it's worth noting that this is looking like being a very large swell event, compared to most usual swell out of the south, so it'll be worth considering all locations for a surf check. Due to the brisk breezes, options will be limited to the protected points, so prepare yourself for a large discrepancy in size.

This weekend (Saturday 26th - Sunday 27th) and further ahead:

This Tasman system is the dominant feature for the forseeable future and will continue to be the main influence on our surf into the weekend, with a secondary SE fetch feeding in from another low near New Zealand's North Island from Thursday through Friday.

Following Friday's peak, surf size will ease steadily from Saturday onwards although the ridge across the northern Tasman should maintain plenty of surf with strong waves expected through Saturday, favouring the points of Northern NSW and SE Qld under similarly fresh winds from the S/SE (maybe SW early in a few spots). The outer points in SE Qld should continue to provide the best waves of the region with 3-4ft surf easing during the day. Expect much bigger but more wind affected surf south of the border. 

Exposed parts of northern NSW should ease back to 3-5ft by Sunday and 2-3ft for the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast. Early indications show that the start of next week will see all coasts ease in further in size.