South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 16th September)

Best Days: Fri/Sat/Sun: solid then easing combo of S'ly and SE swells in Northern NSW, smaller in SE Qld and best suited to the outer points. Tues/Wed: solid E/SE swell with (at this stage) good winds. Next Thurs/Fri: easing but still good E/SE swell, with possibly a second stronger SE swell in the mix (for Northern NSW).

Recap: Easing S’ly swells and developing northerly winds have kept a lid on surf prospects for the last few days. Early Tuesday morning had a few options but that’s been about the best of it. A small southerly groundswell pushed into south swell magnets along the Mid North Coast this afternoon but there wasn’t much size in it (occ 2ft sets - smaller than what was seen in southern NSW).

This week (Sep 17 - 18)

A trough pushing off the NSW coast today and a high ridging in from the west are expected to drive fresh southerly winds across much of the East Coast for the next few days.

The coastal trough will stall off the Far North Coast - possibly forming a small closed low east of Byron Bay on Friday - but a series of approaching fronts into the Southern Tasman Sea will anchor this southerly airstream in place for a while.

Thursday’s surf potential looks pretty grim at this stage. The only possible source of new energy for SE Qld is a strengthening N’ly flow off the SE Qld coast tonight, which may whip up a small NE windswell for exposed north facing swell magnets early morning. I can’t see much more than a foot and a half of weak windswell tops. Winds should be NW for much of the day before southerlies develop overnight. Keep your expectations low.

In Northern NSW, we have a small long period southerly groundswell that’s expected to push up the coast during Thursday, generated by a series of intense lows through the Southern Ocean over the last few days. There’s not much confidence in the timing, but south swell magnets should see inconsistent 2ft to maybe 3ft sets at some point. At this the leading edge is due into the Mid North Coast around lunchtime (building during the afternoon) but we may not see this new swell in Far Northern NSW until Friday. So, expect small residual south swell from today to pad out exposed beaches.

As for local winds - there’s a lot of divergence between models. Some have an early gusty change but I’m of the opinion that we won’t see any major strength until the offshore low actually forms within the trough (overnight Thurs). So for the most part I think we’ll see light variable winds across Northern NSW on Thursday with southerlies kicking in late afternoon across the Mid North Coast (extending north overnight).

On Friday, S’ly winds will strengthen across the coast as the low develops a little more, and this should kick up some additional short range SE swell (on top of the small long period S’ly groundswell in Northern NSW). Exposed south facing beaches in Far Northern NSW should see messy 4-5ft sets during the day - maybe a little undersized early morning, and smaller at remaining beaches. However we’re looking at some fun waves across the outer SE Qld points into the afternoon, somewhere in the 2-3ft range (again, likely to be a little smaller at first light). It’ll be bigger at swell magnets north of the border but local winds will create bumpy conditions at these locations.

This short range energy will really be concentrated towards northern locales, so south of about Yamba surf size will be smaller, but similarly affected by fresh S’ly winds. So, don’t expect anything worthwhile at exposed beaches and it’ll be even smaller elsewhere.

This weekend (Sep 19 - 20)

The trough/low off the Far North Coast on Friday will weaken into the weekend but the ridge is expected to remain firm through the Coral Sea (extending back into the central Tasman Sea) which should ensure a few days of small waves across the outer SE Qld points, somewhere between 2ft and maybe 3ft if we’re lucky - smaller at most beaches and protected points. 

With the synoptic wind easing we should see periods of lighter SW winds in the mornings before moderate to maybe fresh SE winds develop throughout the daytime. 

Northern NSW will also see a continuation of small long periods southerly groundswell in the mix, and similar winds are expected here too (early light SW, tending moderate SE throughout the days). No major size is expected, just inconsistent 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches with smaller waves elsewhere.

We have a few other possible swell sources for late Sunday - mainly for the Mid North Coast, and likely to show better on Monday than on Sunday. The first source will begin to develop on Friday, when a small low is expected to form off the West Coast of New Zealand’s South Island, strengthening a S/SE fetch (this will also enhance the ridge through the central Tasman Sea, and thus additional short range SE swell at the same time). The timing on both of these swells is not particularly clear but size wise it’s only expected to hover around the same as what we’re expecting from other sources anyway.

Late Sunday may also see the arrival of a small trade swell, originating from a developing trade flow near Fiji over the coming days - not no major size is likely from it.

Next week (Sep 21 onwards)

Lots of swell potential for next week.

First off, Monday should begin with a small mix of SE swell (from the low off NZ Friday), plus some short range E/SE energy (from the weekend ridge through the Central Tasman) and additionally a small long range E’ly swell from the Fijian region. It’s still early days but set waves around 3ft+ in Northern NSW and 2-3ft across SE Qld seem reasonable for a ballpark figure right now. 

This is expected to be quickly overshadowed by a much better E/SE groundswell arriving during the late afternoon that’s expected top provide great waves through Tuesday. The origins of this swell are interesting: the low off NZ’s South Island on Friday is expected to track slowly northwards on Saturday and merge with the remnants of the trough/small closed low developing east of Byron Bay on Friday, supercharging a fetch exiting western Cook Strait (the body of water between NZ’s North and South Islands). And, the synoptic pattern is expected to remain slow moving for a few days.

This E/SE fetch will be mainly aimed towards Northern NSW, and current expectations are for strong 4-6ft waves at exposed beaches. With the swell direction out of the SE thru’ E/SE there should be a reasonable spread of size across the region, meaning the semi-exposed points should do very well. At this stage there’s no suggestion for any major trend in the wind but it’s early days yet (I’ll update in Friday’s notes). 

In SE Qld, we’ll see smaller surf from this source but the outer points should still pull in good quality 3-4ft+ sets, with smaller waves at protected points (bigger options at swell magnets though, as long as local winds play ball). Let’s take a closer look on Friday to see if the models are still holding firm.

Tuesday’s swell is expected to hold into Wednesday, and although an easing trend is likely throughout the day, the fetch off New Zealand’s West Coast is expected to remain anchored in place for a few days meaning we should see good residual swell persisting through Thursday and Friday.

In addition to this, there is also a suggestion that we’ll a stronger cut-off low develop in the Central Tasman Sea around the middle of the week that could generate an additional large SE swell on top of the previous energy for Thursday and Friday. 

It’s way to early to have any confidence in this last weather system, however it certainly fits in with the suggestion I gave in Monday’s notes that next week will "probably head towards some more dynamic developments along the East Coast” as the “atmosphere primes itself for a significant weather event in our eastern swell window”. More on this in Friday’s notes.