South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 24th June)

Best Days: Fri: fun E'ly swell but only at places that can handle fresh S'ly winds. Sat/Sun: fun combo of small peaky swells across the region, but dicey winds at times (mainly Sat). Mon onwards: series of strong south swells for Northern NSW, with good winds (nothing major expected in SE Qld although we should see some small E'ly swell around the same time). 

Recap: Fun small south swell Tuesday, easing today, with generally light winds. Not much happening north of the border.

This week (June 25 - 26)

We’ve got a mixed bag for the rest of the week, but I’m not confident we’ll see anything amazing.

First up: Thursday. With no new swells in the water at first, the morning is looking similar to today with light winds in most areas and tiny residual energy across most beaches.

A moderate southerly change is expected to develop in the afternoon (a precursor to a stronger southerly flow Friday) however we may see a late arrival of new E’ly swell that’s also due to reach a peak on Friday. If you’ve got a semi-exposed point up your sleeve (preferably in the Far North, or SE Qld regions) it may be worth a mid-arvo swell check as we may start to see some late 2ft+ sets.

On Friday the southerly flow will become more established and thus stronger across the coastal strip. This will wipe out conditions away from protected points.

However, we’re looking at a building E’ly swell from the fetch that developed north of New Zealand over the last few days. At this stage there’s no reason to deviate away from previous size guidelines - the Sunshine Coast will see the biggest waves (3ft+ exposed beaches), with 2-3ft surf across the Goldy and Far Northern NSW coast, and then smaller surf as you track south from Ballina. 

We’ll also see a small southerly windswell build across south facing beaches in Northern NSW but nothing of any major quality is expected. 

This weekend (June 27 - 28)

Friday’s easterly groundswell will ease slowly through the weekend, starting off somewhere in the 2-3ft range across SE Qld early Saturday morning, with smaller surf south of about Ballina. 

We’ll also see two other swells in the water - a slowly easing S/SE windswell across Northern NSW on Saturday (no major size or quality) and a small trade swell that’s due to to build in size across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW on Saturday, before easing on Sunday.

This trade swell will originate from the strengthening of a broad ridge across the Coral Sea overnight Friday and early Saturday, when it’ll briefly extend south to about Byron latitudes. This should kick up 2-3ft of peaky E/SE swell through Saturday afternoon and maybe Sunday morning, but probably only favouring SE Qld and perhaps Far Northern NSW. 

As for the weekend’s winds, Saturday looks a little dicey in SE Qld with the strengthening ridge expected to fresh SE winds about most regions (may be light SW early), and this will probably influence locations south to about Ballina or maybe Yamba. South of here we should see light variable winds. 

This synoptic flow will ease on Sunday but probably remain a similar direction (early SW tending S’ly then SE in the north, light and variable in the south). So, mornings will certainly be the best time to surf both days. But semi-exposed points should have a few waves throughout the daytime.

Next week (June 29 onwards)

There are a few suggestions we’ll see a moderate trade flow across our eastern swell window next week, which points towards a small east swell at open beaches in SE Qld for some time. Although no major size is expected, we often experience prolonged flat conditions at this time of the year so anything out of the east is always welcome.

Looking to the south, and an incredible storm track below the continent this week will finally enter our southern swell window late Saturday, with a vigorous front pushing south-east of Tasmania that should generate a healthy new southerly swell for Monday afternoon across the Mid North and (hopefully) Far Northern NSW.

However, this swell probably won’t impact SE Qld in any major way due to the storm track and alignment. 

A series of strong follow up front/low combos behind this will then maintain strong, albeit small to moderate sized south swell for the rest of the week, spaced a couple of days apart. And the good news is that with the storm belt remaining generally south of Tasmania and a broad high stretching across the Tasman Sea, local winds should be favourable.

At this stage the broad trend looks like Monday afternoon’s south swell should provide 3-4ft waves at south facing beaches in Northern NSW, easing a little throughout Tuesday before back up into a similar size range on Wednesday afternoon. Another small dip is expected throughout Thursday before a possible bigger south swell (than Mon/Wed) arrives on Friday. However, beaches not open to the south will be much smaller. 

Let’s check back Friday to see how we’re tracking.