South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 17th June)

Best Days: Thurs: Fun E/NE thru' NE swell at open beaches (biggest in the south) with mainly offshore winds. Sat/Sun: plenty of S/SE swell with improving conditions (a little dicey Sat though).

Recap: Plenty of S/SE tending SE swell on Tuesday with set waves still pushing 3-5ft across exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW, before easing today. Wave heights were much smaller in SE Qld, just a couple of feet. We’ve seen a new E/NE tending NE swell build today with 2-3ft sets across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, and slightly bigger waves across the Mid North Coast.

This week (June 18 - 19)

The synoptic chart has a broad trough developing across the southern Tasman Sea. Within the trough line, two centres of low pressure are expected to form over the next 36 hours - one low will form off the South Coast and track steadily E/SE to be positioned near New Zealand’s South Island by late Thursday; a second low will form off the Mid North Coast early Friday and move E/NE into the northern Tasman Sea. 

Across the southern flank of this broad trough, fresh to strong southerly winds will develop through Thursday and are expected to generate a new south swell for the entire NSW coast. Prior to this we’ll see a fun round of peaky surf for much of Thursday, but slowly easing E/NE thru’ NE swell across open beaches during the morning with set waves in the 2-3ft range (a little bigger across the Mid North Coast). Light offshore winds are expected in most regions for the most part, so conditions should be very good.

New S/SE swell off the southern Tasman Low (off NZ's South Island) isn’t expected to arrive until Friday, in which we’ll see a steady upwards trend all day - wave heights may be smaller at first light, especially in the Far North and across SE Qld, ahead of a peak into the afternoon - but the main concern around Friday are the local winds as the low develops off the North Coast.

Winds will initially be W/SW thru’ SW at most locations but gusty S’ly winds are expected to spread from the Mid North Coast (mid-late morning) through to the Far North Coast (early-mid afternoon) and then north of the border (mid-late afternoon). This will eventually wipe out surface conditions at exposed locations, and it’s a shame as the S/SE groundswell is expected to peak around the same time, somewhere in the 4-6ft range at Northern NSW’s south facing beaches. As such you'll have to tuck into a sheltered location for the best waves on Friday, depending on the timing of the change - if it's stalled in any way then we could see a tidy window of strong, quality waves. I'm really not too sure which way it'll eventuate.

In SE Qld, we’re going to see much less size from the (slowly building) S/SE groundswell so even though the late southerly change will be more manageable here, surf size may only be small, consisting mainly of a small residual E/NE swell in the 2ft range at open beaches, then some small late new S/SE energy of a similar size at most beaches (I don’t think we’ll see an appreciable kick in short range swell off the North Coast low until after dinnertime). However, if the models speed things up I’ll update my thoughts in the comment section below.

This weekend (June 20 - 21)

So, it’s looking like a busy weekend of S/SE swell with Saturday expected to see the most size. Exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW should see 4-6ft sets in the morning, with smaller waves elsewhere due to the swell direction, and a lingering fresh S’ly airstream may swing SW in a few locations early morning if we’re lucky: protected locations and semi-exposed points will be your best bet on Saturday. The North Coast low is expected to quickly depart our swell window so we’re unlikely to see any major size from this source. 

In SE Qld, the S/SE swell will deliver much smaller surf on Saturday, around 2ft+ at most beaches however south swell magnets should see bigger surf in the 4ft range at times. Semi-exposed points won’t see a great deal of size but with the general SW tending S’ly flow they’ll be your best point of contact.

On Sunday, a high pressure system developing across the southern Tasman Sea is expected to create light variable winds across most of Northern NSW, as well as extending a weak ridge through the Coral Sea that’ll maintain some form of S’ly breeze across SE Qld beaches (lighter SW early though). Wave heights will trend downwards from Saturday, early 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches in Northern NSW (smaller elsewhere) and only 1-2ft across SE Qld beaches (bigger at south swell magnets). However with better winds on hand Sunday should be the pick of the weekend. 

Next week (June 22 onwards)

Generally easing surf is expected early next week with a high pressure system moving into occupy the Tasman Sea.

We’ve got a couple of possible swell sources for next week though: the North Coast low looks like it’ll linger within a broad troughy feature across the Northern Tasman Sea for a few days, and may briefly re-intensify into something of a swell-producing nature around Monday. This also includes a second, more significant fetch developing NE of New Zealand. However, the models are a little flaky on both scenarios right now (with the second fetch in particular being shunted into the swell shadow of the North Island) so let's give it a few days before discussing possibilities.

Elsewhere, we’re looking at a southerly change later Tuesday that may deliver some short range southerly for Northern NSW energy mid-week. And a series of strong fronts below the continent should keep exposed south facing beaches from becoming too small. However mid-next week is still quite some time away so let’s wait and see how the models pan out on Friday.