South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 15th June)

Best Days: Tues: good, easing S/SE swell in Northern NSW but with tricky winds. Small combo of S/SE and E'ly swell in SE Qld. Wed: small NE and S/SE swells with offshore winds. Late Fri (in the south)/Sat/Sun: strong S/SE swell, good for the protected points: Mid next week onwards: new E'ly swell.

Recap: The weekend delivered a range of swells cross the coast: two east swells in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, with a south swell across Northern NSW. Winds however weren’t fantastic in the north so conditions were variable, and wave heights eased a little into Sunday from all sources. Today we’ve seen easing swells in most areas however the Mid North Coast picked up the leading edge of an earlier-than-expected S/SE groundswell (see Crowdy Head buoy, below). This swell was expected to arrive overnight and peak Tuesday and has produced slightly bigger waves than was forecast (4-5ft).  The Byron buoy only picked up the leading edge of this new swell around dark, so most locations north of about Yamba probably didn’t see much new energy before close of business.

This week (June 16 - 19)

With today’s S/SE swell arriving a little earlier than expected, it’s fair to assume that we’ll probably see the backside of this event a little earlier than Friday’s forecast anticipated.

That being said, the Sydney MHL buoy - which had a Tp spike to 15 seconds early this morning, and then a slow dropping trend in period throughout the day, just recorded a new spike to 17 seconds a short time ago. So, this suggests there’s still more energy to come for Tuesday. 

However, freshening NE winds tending N’ly are now expected across much of Northern NSW for Tuesday, earlier than was forecast Friday. Winds are now already fresh E’ly at Cape Byron which suggests the morning session may not bear much fruit in some areas, even with a reasonably solid swell in the water (however winds are light/variable elsewhere, i.e. Coffs Harbour, and light S/SW at Coolangatta but fresh SE at the Gold Coast Seaway - a wide mix). 

Anyway, early Tuesday morning, Northern NSW should still see inconsistent 3-5ft waves at south facing beaches with a fairly steep easing trend throughout the day. Let’s hope the wind plays ball for the early session at least.

SE Qld won’t see much from this S/SE swell, however it’ll mix in with a small established trade swell offering 2ft sets at most open beaches, and south swell magnets should see bigger waves in the 3ft range. I’m a little worried about local winds here too; more E’ly in direction first up then tending NE during the day but we may see a few isolated pockets of SW winds early morning (i.e. southern Gold Coast).

Tuesday’s easing south swell trend will then continue through Wednesday, and early N’ly winds are expected to swing NW by mid-morning, then W’ly throughout the day. This should provide clean conditions across most open beaches, and we’re looking at a small combination of swells thanks to a small NE swell being generated by a fetch feeding into a trough across Southern NSW. No major size is expected but 2-3ft sets are likely at many open beaches (we may see a few bigger waves in the south from this source).

This freshening NE tending N’ly, NW and then W’ly wind through Tuesday and Wednesday is all related to the development of a broad coastal trough. Once this pushes off the Southern NSW coast around Wednesday, we’ll see a low form and a subsequent southerly flow push up through the southern Tasman Sea. However, we probably won’t see a building trend from this fetch until Friday so despite a SW wind change across the region on Thursday, the surf will mainly consistent of easing residual energy from the NE (about 2ft at most open beaches). 

The new S’ly swell due to push through Friday looks like it may eventuall become quite large, thanks to a stalled trough off the Mid North Coast that could generate southerly gales for most regions throughout the day. As such, protected locations looks like being the best choice to end the working week, depending on the timing of the swell increase - the Mid North Coast can expect an early morning upwards trend but this may not arrive across the Far North until mid-late afternoon. SE Qld would then be positioned behind this, so for the most part Friday looks set to deliver small residual energy across the Gold and Sunshine Coasts with reasonable winds. Let’s fine tune things on Wednesday. 

This weekend (June 20 - 21)

The stalled trough off the North Coast Friday may form a closed low at some point, but regardless, the broad outlook for the weekend is for windy conditions and a large S/SE swell Saturday, easing on Sunday.

It’s too early to put an estimate on wave heights but with these winds it’ll probably be a protected-points only scenario, with locations north of Ballina the biggest beneficiaries (in particular the Gold/Sunshine Coast points). I’ll take a closer look at this on Wednesday but for now it’s pretty safe to say there’ll be no shortage of swell this weekend.

Next week (June 22 onwards)

The weekend’s large S/SE swell will ease steadily into early next week, and beyond this the models are suggesting a broad developing trade flow from New Zealand longitudes right through to the south-western Coral Sea. This points to a great run of east swell through the second half of next week and next weekend. More on this on Wednesday.