South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 8th June)

Best Days: Tues/Wed/Thurs: small trade swell for SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. Fri/Sat: slightly bigger, but less consistent E'ly swell. Thurs/Fri: Strong S'ly swell in Northern NSW (some spots spoiled by local winds though).

Recap: Saturday maintained plenty of S/SE swell across the Northern NSW Coast (3ft+), but there was very little size across SE Qld. This swell eased throughout the afternoon and further into Sunday, leaving us with tiny 1-2ft waves at south facing beaches this morning. On Sunday a small trade swell built across the SE Qld and Far Northern NSW coasts, providing 2-3ft surf at exposed beaches through into today. However very little of this energy has made its way south of about Yamba. The trough responsible for this swell delivered fresh and gusty S/SE winds through Saturday however locations south of about Coffs Harbour were unaffected, with winds remaining SW for much of the day.

This week (June 9 - 12)

A ridge across the Coral Sea has maintained a reasonable fetch within SE Qld’s eastern swell window since Sunday, and as a result we’re looking at a pulsey trade swell for the next few days north of about Yamba. Set waves won’t be very large nor very strong, and there’ll be quiet periods at times however exposed locations should see occasional 2-3ft sets through into the middle of the week. 

Light variable winds are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday morning so conditions should be great across the beaches. A new ridge developing across the Coral Sea from Thursday may freshen SE winds later Wednesday although the timing on this isn’t clear (most of the day should be favourable for surfing).

In Northern NSW, a lack of activity within our southern swell window means that Tuesday will see tiny conditions persist south of about Coffs Harbour (north of here, we’ll see increasing levels of trade swell in the water). 

However, Wednesday is expected to see an about-face, with a new south swell pushing through during the day. A vigorous frontal passage currently crossing Tasmanian longitudes (Maatsuyker Island off Tas’ South Coast recorded a N/NW wind gust of 84kts a short time ago, that’s 156km/hr) will be the source of this next round of swell energy. 

Right now this weather progression is still tucked inside the Tasmanian swell shadow, however two fetches will clear east into our swell window early Tuesday morning, with strong W/SW thru’ SW winds occupying the waters south from eastern Bass Strait to about 55S.

In fact, the initial system, whilst the stronger of the two fronts, is actually less favourably aligned for East Caost swell potential: the second system pushing through later Tuesday and early Wednesday morning will be on the backside of the Long Wave Trough and consequently will have a stronger meridional component (north-south). This means it’ll be aimed better into our swell window and will subsequently produce bigger, stronger swells for southern NSW (due Thursday).

The leading edge of the first south swell is due to build slowly into Wednesday morning ahead of a strong increase - mainly in the south - later Wednesday afternoon; early 2ft sets should reach 3-4ft+ at south facing beaches by late afternoon (there may be a lag on this new swell in the north though). 

Unfortunately, Wednesday’s building trend will be accompanied by a wind swing from the SW around to the S during the day - although, it won’t be overly strong, perhaps 15-18kts tops - but still enough to wreck surface conditions at exposed south facing beaches (they’ll be the only locations picking up any notable size). 

The biggest swell from this pattern is due on Thursday, originating from the strong secondary front. This is expected to arrive overnight Wednesday and should produce 4-6ft surf at most south facing beaches during Thursday. However these locations will be adversely affected by fresh and gusty S/SE winds (may be lighter SW for a brief period early morning, but don’t get your hopes up). Very little of this south swell is expected make its way past Cape Byron due to the acute south swell direction - but there'll be a continuation of trade swell in the water so we should see fun waves in SE Qld.

Thursday’s south swell with then ease slowly through Friday with persistent S/SE winds maintaining moderate to fresh strengths. Again, we may see early periods of SW winds at selected locations however the broader synoptic flow is expected to remain cross-onshore.

While all of this is going on, an intensifying depression NE of New Zealand on Tuesday and Wednesday will have generated a new E’ly groundswell that’s also expected to push through for Friday (and hold through the weekend). This fetch looks good on the synoptic chart but I think our swell model is overcooking it (I have a feeling it’s not resolving the various mix of new and residual south and east swells expected around this time).

Regardless, I do think we’ll see an increase at some stage on Friday - unsure of the exact timing - but with sets likely to push 3-4ft across SE Qld and most of Northern NSW, down to about Coffs Harbour, with smaller surf south of here. Due to the more distant source, set waves will be a little inconsistent - although this may not be quite as noticeable as usual, with the easing S'ly swell filling in the mix. It’s a shame about the local winds (S/SE, favouring only the points) as this mix of east and south energy would otherwise be a great combo of swells for the open beaches.

In any case it looks like a pretty good finish to the week if you can find a semi-exposed point handling the wind, as there should be enough swells from both directions to generate fun waves at most coasts. More on this in Wednesday’s update. 

This weekend (June 13 - 14)

Friday’s east swell is expected to hold through Saturday before slowly easing in size and consistency. With the ridge remaining in place across the Coral Sea, SE Qld surfers should have a fun weekend of small semi-exposed points on offer (3-4ft open beaches Saturday, 2-3ft Sunday, a shade smaller on the points). 

In Northern NSW, we’re looking at a combo of trade swell (decreasing in size with increasing southerly latitude), plus an easing south swell from Thursday’s sizeable pulse. Local winds look pretty good all weekend south of about Ballina under the influence of a light variable airstream thanks to a ridge of high pressure across the southern Tasman Sea. 

Next week (June 15 onwards)

A strong series of polar lows and fronts are expected to develop south of the Tasman Sea over the weekend, which - although located towards the eastern edge of Northern NSW’s south swell window - may provide some new S/SE swell during the first half of next week. This is however some time away and it’s common for the computer models to shunt this pattern further east as we draw closer to it (i.e. pushing it outside of our swell window). Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday.