South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 22nd April)

Best Days: Thurs: easing swells in Northern NSW with good winds (very small in SE Qld). Fri thru' Tues: slowly building E'ly swell, peaking Mon/Tues. Best waves will probably be Sun/Mon at most open beaches with freshening W'ly winds. 

Recap: An enormous range in wave heights across the East Coast from this ECL. Across the Sydney/Hunter coast (where the ECL was focused), exposed locations were easily in excess of 15ft+ on Tuesday, with accompanying storm to hurricane force winds. But wave heights tapered off quickly north of here; anywhere from 8-10ft across the Mid North Coast late Tuesday, grading to just 2ft+ across the SE Qld Coast. Wave heights appeared to peak earlier than expected (overnight Tuesday, instead of early Wednesday) and we’ve seen a slow easing trend all day today but with clean conditions under glorious offshore winds. 

This week (Apr 23 - 24)

So that’s pretty much it from the ECL. It’s now dissipating into a broad trough encompassing the greater western half of the Tasman Sea, tucked into the swell shadow of the Hunter curve. As such there’ll be no new swell from the southern quadrant; exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW may see some early 3ft sets Thursday, but it’ll be on the way down throughout the day. Expect even smaller waves from this source at remaining beaches, and in SE Qld. Conditions will be clean at most beaches with light variable winds. 

We actually have another source of swell from the broad trough (that was formerly the ECL) - a NE fetch feeding into it is expected to generate a new E’ly swell (by way of radial spread) through Thursday afternoon and Friday. However the fetch doesn’t extend much further latitudinally north than the Northern NSW coast, and it’s positioned a fair way offshore and also pointed away from our coast. This will restrict surf size at the coast from this source. 

As such I think any sideband energy we see from it will be very small in the north (1ft, maybe 2ft), with possibly the Lower Mid North Coast seeing a few stray 2ft+ sets later Thursday and for most of Friday. 

Of more importance is the first pulse in a series of long range E’ly swells due to occupy the region for the next four or five days. These swells are being generated by a slow moving tropical system that’s been parked NE of New Zealand for the last few days.

Despite the very large travel distance (and the resulting inconsistency), we should see some fun waves across the coast. Friday’s pulse is expected to arrive mid-late morning (i.e. not quite there for the dawn patrol) and will be biggest late afternoon, possibly showing some infrequent 2-3ft sets at most beaches by late afternoon. Early morning’s conditions are looking great with moderate W’ly winds ahead of an afternoon northerly breeze. So, keep an eye on the local obs and dart into a northern corner after lunch if you have to.

This weekend (Apr 25 - 26)

Friday’s new E’ly swell will hold through Saturday, and should strengthen a little more into the 3ft range. However it will still be very inconsistent at times and probably won’t offer much across the points as a result - it’ll be best suited to the beachies. Saturday’s winds are expected to be light and variable, that is: early light offshores ahead of light to moderate afternoon sea breezes. 

A second, slightly stronger pulse from this source is expected to push through on Sunday but I’m not sure whether it’ll increase wave heights very much (another, slightly stronger pulse is actually due Monday too).

However Sunday’s conditions are looking excellent with freshening W’ly winds as a low pressure system approaches NSW from the west. As such the beach breaks should be perfectly clean all day, and although inconsistent, this east swell should be dishing out some great waves across most coasts. I’m going to hold my forecast in at 3ft+ for exposed beaches on Sunday but again, expect long breaks between waves. 

Next week (Apr 27 onwards)

This tropical system NE of New Zealand has strengthened considerably over the last 24 hours and is showing a small embedded belt of 40kt+ winds, which should kick up another pulse of swell for Monday and possibly Tuesday. At this stage these days looks like they’ll be the biggest from this source, with (again) inconsistent 3-4ft+ waves at exposed beaches. 

However the strengthening E’ly fetch is also developing at a time when it’s slipping into the swell shadow of New Zeland’s North Island. This will affect which locations see this most size - we should see the upper end of this size range across the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast, but anywhere south of Byron or Ballina will be at risk of much smaller surf due to the shadowing effects of New Zealand. 

Monday will however be the day to capitalise on this swell, as we’ve got a developing Tasman Low off the Southern NSW coast early next week that’s expected to drive southerly winds across the East Coast on Tuesday. Monday should see freshening W’ly winds tending SW so most open beaches should remain clean. Tuesday will see restricted options to protected southern corners and semi-exposed points under the developing southerly breeze. 

As this new Tasman Low develops off the South Coast, we’ll see a strong S’ly fetch develop across its western flank, which will generate a strong southerly swell for later Monday (across the Lower Mid North Coast) and Tuesday, but it'll only benefit the Northern NSW coast - this southerly swell direction simply won’t be favourable for SE Qld, away from a handful of south swell magnets. 

South facing beaches in Northern NSW should see 4-5ft sets from this source Tuesday,  but the good news is that another strong front is modelled to project north-east from polar latitudes right up into the southern Tasman Sea early in the week,  generating another strong southerly swell for around Thursday, possibly Friday. 

As such, we’re looking at an extended period of strong south swell for the foreseeable future. More on this in Friday’s update.