Strong building SE swell with good options at many beaches

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales by Ben Matson (issued Monday 20th April)

Best Days: Tues/Wed: strong building SE swell in Northern NSW (much smaller in SE Qld) with generally good winds north of Port Mac. Thurs: easing SE tending S'ly swell in Northern NSW, but windy at times. Much smaller in SE Qld. Fri/Sat/Sun/Mon: slowly building, fun E'ly swell with good winds. 

Recap: The weekend’s trade swell came in a little under expectations, but Sunday morning was still the pick with light W/NW winds and fun peaky surf across open SE Qld beaches (smaller surf south of the border). Wave heights tapered off into this morning but we’ve seen building SE swells and freshening S/SW winds across the Lower Mid North Coast thanks to a developing ECL.

This week (Apr 21 - 24)

Oh jeez, this is a tricky forecast. 

We’ve got a complex East Coast Low developing off the Lower Mid North Coast, and it’s already generating gale to storm force winds about its southern flank (even hurricane forecast, as per Wattamolla this afternoon). 

However the accompanying fetch is partially straddling the North Coast’s swell window, and as the low deepen into Tuesday its expected to slowly contract to the coastal margin - a fair percentage of it positioned inside the Hunter curve - as well as swinging more southerly in direction, even south-west through Thursday.

This will reduce the surf potential for the second half of the week from this source.

But first things first - we’ve got a mighty ol' weather system taking shape and parts of Northern NSW are going to see great waves from it. As the low initially develops, winds will remain out of the western quadrant for most of Tuesday (although, the Mid North Coast will see much stronger winds, and locations in the south could see developing southerlies at some point). 

A new S/SE swell generated by the broad fetch feeding into the ECL will push up the Northern NSW coast during Tuesday, probably reaching a peak sometime Wednesday before easing from Thursday onwards. Wave heights will be largest in the south (and at exposed south facing beaches), probably reaching 8-10ft+ between Seal Rocks and Port Mac, but with decreasing size from Coffs Harbour northwards (say, peaking around 6-8ft at south facing beaches in the Ballina/Byron region on Wednesday). Expect smaller surf through Tuesday but with a gradual upwards trend all day.

As always, protected locations and points will be smaller than exposed beaches due to the swlel direction. But the quality of the swell should be pretty good.

North of Byron, surf size will taper off due to the swell source and direction. Tuesday morning will start out small at most beaches - just some residual E’ly swell at open beaches - but most Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches should reach 2ft+ from this S/SE source on Wednesday, with outer semi-exposed points likely to push 3ft, maybe 4ft at times (and bigger waves again at the region’s handful of exposed south swell magnets). 

The models are not in close agreement with the synoptic evolution from Wednesday onwards (I’m leaning with GFS right now, it’s been pretty good on this system so far). Nevertheless the general outlook is for a swing in the swell direction to the south, with an easing trend as well. This will (probably) shut off the supply of swell to SE Qld for the second half of the week, with only south swell magnets really raking in any notable size.

Northern NSW should continue to see (easing) southerly swell - initially strong on Thursday morning - but with fresh SW winds in most areas (south of Byron) thanks to the low’s broadening characteristics as it pushes into the central Tasman Sea, those exposed beaches could be wind affected.

Elsewhere, we’ve got a broad tropical system developing NE of New Zealand that’s expected to generate a really nice E’ly swell for all coasts this weekend. The leading edge of this will probably push through on Friday and should offer inconsistent 2-3ft sets at exposed beaches by the end of the day. With good winds on hand - mainly light to moderate W/SW - there should be some fun waves to finish the working week. 

This weekend (Apr 25 - 26)

The aforementioned E’ly swell is looking pretty tasty at the moment, the only downer is that the fetch is located such a large distance from the mainland. Freshening W/SW winds are expected all weekend as another strong frontal system crosses the SE corner of the country, and we should see great beach breaks in the 3ft range on Saturday. A little inconsistent at times, but well worth the effort. 

Into Sunday, a second pulse of E’ly swell from this system is expected to arrive from an intensification through Wednesday and Thursday. This may kick up wave heights by another foot, which should provide excellent options right across the region as W/SW winds continue to freshen.

I’ll update all of this in Wednesday’s notes when the effects of the ECL should be a little better understood. 

Next week (Apr 27 onwards)

We’ve got more strong south swell for Monday onwards thanks to a strong frontal passage across the Tasmanian region. 

However, Sunday’s E’ly swell is expected to still be quite strong in the water for Monday morning, so as this E’ly swell eases and the new S’ly swell starts to fill into the coast, we should see fun peaky breaks breaks across most areas.  

At this stage the southerly regime looks like it’ll occupy our southern swell window for a few days, so most of next week will maintain its focus to the south (and there could be some size there around 6ft at south facing beaches). Let’s see how the model updates pan out over the remainder of the week.

Comments

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Monday, 20 Apr 2015 at 7:39pm

This is going to be an interesting one. Hope that thing doesn't duck into the hunter curve too quickly.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 21 Apr 2015 at 3:35pm

Small lines starting to show on the Byron cam now and the buoy has strong data (finally!). The Coffs surfcam has had plenty of size all morning (8ft south facing beaches? Bigger?). But wow, conditions look unreal.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 21 Apr 2015 at 3:46pm

It showed here beautifully this morning, a bit behind the buoy data, which was strong all night.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Tuesday, 21 Apr 2015 at 4:32pm

Yes I heard your local was glorious this morning Steve.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 21 Apr 2015 at 4:56pm

D'Bah is pushing 3ft now but the rest of the GC (and the points) are smaller, just a foot or two it seems.

saltman's picture
saltman's picture
saltman Tuesday, 21 Apr 2015 at 5:01pm

Some long lines showing on the back beaches right now -easily 4ft
with quite a bit of current pushing north

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 21 Apr 2015 at 5:11pm

You on the Tweed?

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Tuesday, 21 Apr 2015 at 5:07pm

Love these Swellnet cams.

Anywhere up to Newcastle is a mess. Coffs clean and solid, looks 4ft+.

Couple of defined lines at the Pass, maybe 2ft but nice shape.

It's great to be able to look at these swells up and down the coast. Hope you get some waves people.

saltman's picture
saltman's picture
saltman Tuesday, 21 Apr 2015 at 5:37pm

Yes Ben
This morning was interesting - 2 swells in the water with the forerunning S swell sometimes running over the top of a more east short period - forming some odd peaks - other times just long lines every 15 minutes

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 21 Apr 2015 at 5:48pm

Unreal. Yeah should see a little more size there compared to the Goldy. Tomorrow should be excellent!

saltman's picture
saltman's picture
saltman Tuesday, 21 Apr 2015 at 5:50pm

Cheers - Will let you know

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 21 Apr 2015 at 5:59pm

was pulsing on dark with the incoming tide.

deffo some 6ft sets.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Tuesday, 21 Apr 2015 at 6:08pm

BIg sets way outside Nth Wall Ballina this evening.

wellymon's picture
wellymon's picture
wellymon Tuesday, 21 Apr 2015 at 6:39pm

Absolutely pumping barrels with no-one around...?
Could not believe it;)
Yeeewww

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 21 Apr 2015 at 6:40pm

Yeah it was big on the bar eh LD.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Tuesday, 21 Apr 2015 at 7:01pm

Yeh free.
Guys towing trestles got some nice pits.

no-eye-deer's picture
no-eye-deer's picture
no-eye-deer Tuesday, 21 Apr 2015 at 7:14pm

I checked the same stretch as Saltman late on this arvy. Saw a couple of sets really pulse, too bad it is overpowering the banks there as conditions were otherwise magic.

Looks like i'll be taking a number in the queue at a local pointbreak in the morning.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 7:44am

Bummer.. looks like the swell may have peaked overnight across Northern NSW and SE Qld. Still looks bloody good for the open beaches though (and should be quite sizeable at exposed spots south of Byron). Snapper's still picking up a few 2-3ft sets though and looks pretty fun.




saltman's picture
saltman's picture
saltman Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 8:58am

just out of the water - swell definetly peaked last night.
Now its 3 to 4ft at best on open beaches. the high tide was almost swallowing it, and longish waits between sets made it an easier paddle than yesterday
regardless had a dozen or so lovely clean set waves to myself before work - just not what I was expecting

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 11:07am

Pffft..... Here's the go....
"Possible long period east swell..." - Saturday, 18 Apr 2015 at 10:47am
http://www.swellnet.com/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-n...

Really liking the look of this system.... Most forecast sites have a tendency to underestimate these long distance eastswells for Qld/NNSW..... Dunno why.. Perhaps swell travelling east to west do not dilute as much as swells travelling west to east, or north to south etc.... I suppose that's one for the physics buffs.... Earth rotation/ coriolis blah blah blah... I dunno....
But bottomline, expect something in the 3 to 5 foot range... really nice lines... A touch inconsistent but sweet... You all have the tools/calclators to work out when... In fact, as the swell gets a touch of ese in it, it may be pleasantly surprising ;)

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 11:11am

I'll fine tune the numbers this arvo, but in Monday's notes (avove) I went 3ft range, with an increase into the 4ft range filling in on Sunday.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 11:16am

Note it's wsw progression towards NZ and fetch intensification... A pleasant surprise.... A bit of a shame for those in NSW's NZ shadow, though....

the-u-turn's picture
the-u-turn's picture
the-u-turn Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 11:19am

Ben, when we're all done with the storm could there be a gallery of some of the unusual spots surfed this week (i.e. Sydney Harbour). Cheers

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 11:41am

Half the size today, but it opened up some lovely exposed spots. The new E'ly input was very noticeable.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 12:36pm

Yeah saw some footage from your local this morning Steve. Still looked way fun. So you saying there's an E'ly swell in the water this morning too, or the S'ly swell has more east in it this morning?

Cylinders85's picture
Cylinders85's picture
Cylinders85 Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 11:43am

shit sheepy swellnet should give you a job.thats if they could put up with you hahaha.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 12:05pm

Tim Baker via Instagram (re: Tweed Coast):

Looks more like 3-4ft to me, however I've had a couple of other reports of 4-5ft sets at south swell magnets on the Tweed Coast early this morning. Dropping steadily by the looks of things though.

 

Two guys out but they have a ski towing 4-5' waves. Such a shame

A photo posted by bytimbaker (@bytimbaker) on

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 12:11pm

Well when I mean half the size I mean it's gone from 6ft sets to a very slow and incon 3 to occassionally 4ft.

Power and volume in waves is logarithmic not linear.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 12:13pm

SD, I'm not too excited about that South Pac fetch.
3ft sets every twenty minutes with a 4ft wave every hour.

If it comes in combo with another swell then it's happy A-frame.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 12:14pm

Nahhh, cyl..... Have you seen what it's done to Ben's hair? I like being unaccountable.... ;) Thanks anyway, but Ben and Craig have got it pretty wired.... Blokes like Me, don, FR, just like sparring with them.... Keeps em' sharp.....
I might be bailing soon anyway..... Some will be breaking out the Grange lol

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 12:21pm

Free ride... Probably better north of the border..... She's a decent fetch, mate....

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 12:32pm

yeah, doesn't look quite as good to me on ASCAT. Head of the fetch is a long way away and I don't think swell periods are big enough to avoid significant swell decay.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 12:41pm

I'm tending to agree Steve. First arrival of this swell doesn't look much above 3ft/3ft+ to me, however if that intensification comes to fruition along with the retrograde and the fetch stays above that sheep shaggin isles shadow, then I'm thinking locations to the north could have some decent and powerful 4ft sets later on.....just as the winds turn from offshore to cross/onshore!!!

And it's still a BIG if for that more powerful stuff. Small changes in the location (too far south) and less retrograde with less intensification could potentially halve that swell forecast.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 12:49pm

It's a tough one, the intensification Thursday night and into Friday is juicy and just in the swell window for SE Qld.

Later Monday and Tuesday looks to be the peak for me and if not shadowed I could see some 5ft sets. I'd be more in that strong 3-4ft range though with rare inconsistent bigger bombs.

 

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 1:02pm

It is juicy.... The low itself doesn't really move wsw, but the fetch's intensity does..... Don, FR, Use whichever "loop" is your fave.... You'll see what I mean..... Don, I'll shoot you a link....
3 to 5 foot is my call.... And yeah, it's a fairly broad call, so my apologies....... More than likely the odd 5 foot bomb at a few swell magnets north of Jupiters which I wont name ;)
But in agreement with Ben on 3 - 4 foot......

Whatever way you look at it, should be nice waves with a worse case scenario of 3 foot with a decent period....... with possible great local conditions....

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 1:18pm

For me the shadowing is the big IF. EC has the fetch a smidgen more south than GFS. It won't take much for that sheep shaggin isle to cut our swell in half!!!

I've seen it numerous times where the actual fetch is sucked poleward more than the forecast and that's then all she wrote.

wellymon's picture
wellymon's picture
wellymon Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 2:30pm

" It won't take much for that sheep shaggin isle to cut our swell in half!!! and that's then all she wrote."

Uuummmmm;)

saltman's picture
saltman's picture
saltman Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 1:52pm

Right now its all but over on the open beaches
at best 3 ft inconsistent sets lacking the energy of yesterday

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 2:01pm

I mean considering the strength of the system and comparing it to say, the Pasha Bulker system and other 2007 ECL's it was a bit of a fizzer as far as swell production goes.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 2:26pm

That's because the bulk of it was shadowed by Seal Rocks and The Hunter.

You guys just got that single pulse from when it was east of Seal Rocks, but since then it's pushed back into the shadow and moved south.

Dropping considerably here as well.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 2:44pm

Still looking good at D'Bah.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 2:53pm

Yeah I understand that Craig. Hopefully any more ECL's will move into the central Tasman and stall.
Still, that first pulse yesterday morning was sweet as and not many people on it.

Nistol's picture
Nistol's picture
Nistol Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 4:01pm

Swell didn't make it to the Sunshine Coast

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 4:05pm

Was only meant to be 2ft+ across most of the Gold/Sunny Coasts. Jack Dekort took this photo a few hours ago (Sunny Coast), looks a good 2ft to me.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 4:21pm

That pacific low out yonder as we speak has gale to to severe gale strength easterly winds in the quadrant -28 to -30 x -162 to -165.... An extensive area of near gale strength easterlies also in the window....

spidermonkey's picture
spidermonkey's picture
spidermonkey Wednesday, 22 Apr 2015 at 6:49pm

Surfing the sth swell magnet Nth of Noosa last few days.3ft max amasing conditions not much got up this way tho.agree with SD next swell looking real good for Us Northern Folk