South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 17th April)

Best Days: Sat/Sun: fun building trade swell in SE Qld but with tricky winds. Sun AM the pick. Mon/Tues/Wed/Thurs: building short range SE swell across all coasts thanks to a developing ECL. Very large in the Far South, grading much smaller through to SE Qld but there should be waves at most locations. Best conditions expected north of Port Macquarie.

Recap: Plenty of fun waves on Thursday as the S/SE swell eased but today was much less interesting: small and mainly onshore. 

This weekend (Apr 18 - 20)

It’s a shame that we’re looking at a general NE tending N’ly flow in SE Qld over the weekend, as there’s an otherwise fun trade swell expected to build throughout the region. It’s not going to be especially big, but you’ll have to tuck into a sheltered northern corner (if there’s one at your disposal) for the best conditions. 

The Sunny Coast should see a peak late Saturday through Sunday in the 3ft to almost 4ft range at open beaches, with 2-3ft surf across the Gold and Tweed Coasts, and smaller surf as you track south from Byron. With no new swell sources in the Tasman Sea right now, most Northern NSW locations (except the Far North) will be very small and lacklustre during this period.

As for local winds, freshening NW tending NE winds on Saturday will further compound Northern NSW’s small surf prospects,  whilst SE Qld will see light to moderate E/NE tending NE winds, thanks to the close proximity of the trade belt. 

As the trade belt eases in strength on Sunday, winds should go light and variable across SE Qld early morning before tending light to moderate N’ly during the day. However an approaching cold front to the south will freshen N/NW tending NW winds about Northern NSW. 

In actual fact we should see a small level of peaky N/NE windswell across exposed NE facing beaches south of Ballina on Sunday, up to 2ft+ (biggest in the Far South, around Forster). As winds swing NW during the day there could be some OK waves but it’s not really worth working around. A shallow SW change will then push through mid-afternoon ahead of a strong southerly change overnight. 

Next week (Apr 21 onwards)

As discussed for all of last week, we’ve got a proper East Coast Low developing off the NSW coast early next week, in the wake of a gusty southerly change pushing across southern NSW. 

For Northern NSW, the surf forecast is very complex because conditions will vary considerably north and south of the axis of the developing low. Right now, this seems like it'll probably occur around Port Macquarie - so we’re likely to see an outflow from the SW across locations north of here. 

In and around the Port Mac region, we’re more likely to see a strong southerly flow, whilst locations to the south (i.e. Southern NSW) will see strong SE winds. 

However, if model guidance moves around - as is quite posisble - the precise location of this axis could very well change, and subsequently alter local winds.

Additionally, it’s hard to be confident on just how much size we’ll see. The biggest waves from this developing ECL will be either directly in line of the core fetch, or just to the south - so probably from Seal Rocks through the Hunter/Sydney and Illawarra coasts.

North from Seal Rocks, wave heights will taper off in size with increasing northerly latitude - so the key to scoring the best large surf will be to find somewhere just north of the low’s axis, so that winds are offshore but you’re able to maximise potential surf size.

Let’s look at southern regions first (south of about Coffs Harbour): we’re looking at a building trend all day Monday into Tuesday with exposed spots likely to cap out about 8-10ft+. With southerly gales on hand you'll really have to find somewhere extremely sheltered.

However as the ECL develops and tracks SW towards southern NSW (as is broadly suggested by most models), wave heights will start to ease steadily from about Wednesday afternoon onwards - being more influenced by an easterly indeed from the eastern flank of the ECL. 

In fact right through the second half of the week, this E’ly or even NE indeed is expected to remain near-stationary across the Central/Northern Tasman Sea, which means we’ll see waves right through the period, even if the core ECL developments (mid-week) are aimed towards southern NSW.

Across the remaining Northern NSW coast, we can expect a similar trend but with less size, from both sources - and slightly delayed in its arrival compared to southern regions. It’s quite likely that exposed south facing beaches will pick up a strong pulse through Tuesday/Wednesday in the 6-8ft range. With more favourable winds across this region (S/SW tending SW) could be some excellent surf across the points (albeit smaller in size).

However, we need to bear in mind that small changes in the position of the low could greatly affect this outcome. I’ll revise my thoughts in the comments below (over the weekend) if there are dramatic changes in model guidance. 

As for SE Qld, I am concerned that the position of this system and the orientation of the core fetch really won’t favour much more than a small to moderate increase in S/SE swell  through Tuesday and Wednesday - maybe 2-3ft across most beaches, 3-4ft at semi-exposed points and bigger 4-5ft sets at exposed south facing beaches. Local conditions should be good though, so I’ll leave it until Monday as we’ll be very close to the event so confidence will be much higher.

Anyway, it’s a very dynamic week of waves coming up - have a good weekend and I’ll see you Monday.