South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 13th April)

Best Days: Tues: Large S/SE swell in Northern NSW (much smaller in SE Qld), with good winds early. Wed/Thurs: easing S/SE swell (much smaller in SE Qld) with good winds early. Sat/Sun: small trade swell in SE Qld. Mon onwards: chance for a developing low off the Northern NSW coast.

Recap: Easing south swell all weekend with early SW winds trend S’ly during the days. A solid southerly groundswell reached the Lower Mid North Coast late this afternoon and will fill in across remaining Northern NSW and SE Qld coasts tonight.

This week (Apr 14 - 17)

The south swell currently building across Southern NSW is expected to reach a peak across most Northern NSW regions on Tuesday morning, and through the early afternoon in SE Qld.

As is usual under this swell direction, we’re looking at a large range in wave heights across the coast - anywhere from 6-8ft+ at exposed south facing beaches south of Byron, to 4-6ft at most open beaches/semi-exposed points and 2-3ft inside sheltered southern corners. 

Winds will ease in strength from the south, and we should see early sou’westers in most spots so the semi-exposed points should offer the best waves from this source, especially through the day as winds veer more S/SE.

North of Byron up into SE Qld, wave heights will tail off as the swell loses size under refractive processes. That being said, the outer semi-exposed points of the Gold and Sunshine Coast should still reel in some healthy sets (3ft, nearly 4ft) into the afternoon, with most open beaches seeing smaller, less consistent waves in the 2ft+ range (meanwhile, the handful of reliable south swell magnets should see bigger 4-5ft waves at times). Expect smaller wave heights early morning as the swell is not expected to peak until after lunchtime.

The southerly airstream will also favour the points here so (apart from sheltered spots like Noosa, which won’t pick up much size) they’ll be your best choice on Tuesday.

From Late Tuesday (in the south) and Wednesday (in the north) onwards the trend will be steadily towards. That being said, Wednesday morning should still offer some sizeable waves at exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW (5-6ft sets), with smaller 3-4ft waves at remaining open beaches. It’ll be a couple of feet smaller in SE Qld on Wednesday but there should still be enough energy for some small runners on the semi-exposed points. And, light variable winds should keep conditions clean in the morning.

For the rest of the week we’re looking at an incremental drop in SE swell across most regions, with light variable winds/sea breezes in the North, and freshening N/NW winds across the Lower Mid North Coast Thursday, trending variable Friday.

However the SE Qld coast, especially the Sunny Coast - should see a small uptick in east swell later in the week thanks to a slowly strengthening trade flow through the Coral Sea. Initially it won’t be very well aligned but it’ll slowly broaden into the Northern Tasman Sea by around Thursday with a small icnrease due on Friday, and slightl better surf prospects expected for the weekend. Either way it should keep open Qld beaches ticking with a foot or two of mid-range swell to finish the working week. 

This weekend (Apr 18 - 20)

Mainly small surf is expected for the weekend, with the best prospects to be found north of Brisbane.

The aforementioned strengthening trade flow might bump up surf size to 2ft, perhaps 3ft by Saturday afternoon on the Gold Coast, with slightly bigger waves for Sunday. And the Sunshine Coast should see a few bigger sets again thanks to its slightly closer proximity to the swell source. But this trade swell will not favour Northern NSW as much and we can expect smaller wave heights south of Byron.

Winds in SE Qld are looking OK for the weekend, mainly light to moderate onshore but probably variable early morning. So at this stage there should be a few workable beachies around the traps.

In Northern NSW, we can expect mainly small residual swells on Saturday and freshening northerly winds (south of about Ballina, variable to the north). On Sunday there is a chance for an afternoon gusty southerly change behind a cold front, and a late building southerly windswell - probably just across the Lower Mid North Coast - but at this stage no great surf is expected until probably Monday.

As a side note, late Sunday should also see a smaller component of long period southerly swell by the end of the day (again, mainly in the Lower Mid North Coast), originating from the parent low to this front - but in its earlier stages SW of Tasmania (mainly outside of NSW’s swell window, on Friday). As such it’s not current seen as a significant source of swell - and local winds are looking dicey anyway - however I’ll review this on Wednesday in the hope that the model guidance swings a little more in our favour. 

Next week (Apr 21 onwards)

A steady progression of intense lows south of Tasmania from the weekend onwards are expected to supply small long period south swell to Northern NSW throughout next week.

The latest GFS model has suggested Sunday's southerly change could evolve into a deep Tasman Low off the Mid North Coast, but I'm not especially confident on this scenario right now. There's certainly some potential, and it's the ideal time of the year for these systems to develop - but let's wait and see how future model runs play out with this system. 

Either way, the synoptic charts look very active for the long term, which is a good thing. More on Wednesday.