South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 10th April)

Best Days: Sat: strong but steadily easing S'ly swell with good winds for the NSW points. Much smaller in SE Qld due to the swell direction. Sun: small leftovers at open beaches but clean in the morning. Tues/Wed: Another strong S/SE groundswell with morning offshores, and great waves at many locations.

Recap: Small residual E’ly swell on Thursday with clean peaky 2ft+ waves across most open beaches, ahead of a late pulse of new S’ly swell on Thursday in the south that built across remaining coasts today. Surf size came in higher than expected (8ft to nearly 10ft exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW), even the Tweed Coast saw solid 5-6ft+ surf (see photo below, from mid-late morning today). And SE Qld pushed a foot bigger than expected (occasional 3-4ft sets at Snapper Rocks, 2-3ft across remaining Gold Coast beaches and the Sunny Coast). Very impressive indeed, especially for an acute south swell.

This weekend (Apr 11 - 12)

Easing south swell is the general expectation for the weekend. This south swell did plateau a little longer than expected in Southern NSW (from late yesterday thru' this morning), so it’s fair to expect that the same trend will pan out across Northern NSW too. 

As such early morning should see some bombs sets at south swell magnets in the 4-5ft+ range across Northern NSW swell magnets but an easing trend will certainly take place throughout the day. Beaches not completely open to the south will be much smaller, and apart from an early period of SW winds in some areas, moderate S/SE winds will persist for much of the day.

Sunday will see even smaller surf, thanks to a lack of new swell sources expected in the next 36 hours. Local winds should be light offshore for most of the morning though (ahead of afternoon sea breezes) so aim for an early paddle for the best waves (2-3ft+ sets south facing beaches, smaller elsewhere).

In SE Qld, surf size will also trend downwards and without any new swell sources in the water we’ll be relying on this southerly swell all weekend.

The synoptic wind will ease in strength so an early SW flow is likely in most areas but it’ll swing S’ly then S/SE during the day. Semi-exposed points may pull in some early 2-3ft sets on Saturday but it’ll be smaller elsewhere (1-2ft) and by the afternoon surf size will have abated a little more. The region’s handful of exposed south facing beaches should see bigger waves early morning (3-4ft) but they may be wind affected. 

On Sunday, expect smaller residual swells best suited to south swell magnets, with early light winds tending moderate S’ly then S/SE throughout the day. 

Next week (Apr 13 - 17)

We’re still looking at a great southerly groundswell for the first half of next week, but wave heights have been downgraded a little since Wednesday’s notes. 

The storm track looks like it’ll maintain a similar track as per previous model guidance but the strength and duration of the fetch (specifically, a secondary intensification near the SW tip of NZ’s South Island) has been downgraded a little.

For the most part, Monday will see small residual leftovers from the weekend. The leading edge of this new swell is due into southern NSW mid-morning, but may not reach the Mid North Coast until late afternoon, with the bulk swell increase likely to arrive here overnight. It certainly won’t reach the Far North Coast or SE Qld until after dark, however locations from Coffs Harbour southwards (especially south of Port Mac) may see a decent kick in long period southerly swell in the last few hours of the day. 

On Tuesday, the S/SE swell should be into fifth gear through the morning, and we’re looking at some very sizeable waves at exposed south facing locations in Northern NSW, near 6-8ft+. In fact, thanks to the more eastern storm track - which will allow for a little more S/SE in the swell direction - we should see a healthy percentage of size across many open beaches (i.e. not quite as small as what is experienced under straight S’ly swells). So expect strong waves at most beaches, points and reefs from this swell. 

Throughout SE Qld, surf size will obviously be much smaller but the outer semi-exposed points should pick up occasional 3ft to nearly 4ft sets at times on Tuesday (similar to what we saw today). Most Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches should see inconsistent 2-3ft waves from this source, however exposed south swell magnets are likely to see occasional 4-5ft sets at times. 

As for local winds during this period, no major synoptic influence is expected so anticipate early light offshores trending moderate S/SE during the days. 

Tuesday’s swell event will then ease slowly from Wednesday onwards, and at this stage there are no other signs of significant swell on the cards for the long term period. As such, make the most of Tuesday and Wednesday as they should deliver the best waves of the next week or (maybe) two.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!