South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 8th April)

Best Days: Later Thurs/Fri/Sat: strong S'ly swell with good winds for the NSW points (size peaking Fri, easing Sat onwards). Only small in SE Qld due to the swell direction but there'll be a few waves about. Late Mon/Tues/Wed: Another strong S/SE groundswell with great waves at many locations.

Recap: Small residual E’ly swell has maintained run 2ft waves at most open beaches for the last few days with mainly light winds (morning offshore, afternoon onshore). 

This week (Apr 9 - 10)

The developing low off the southern NSW coast right now will be a strong focal point for the next few days.

Although it’s currently located inside the swell shadow for Northern NSW and SE Qld - being positioned inside the Hunter curve - it will slowly track eastwards and by Thursday morning should be positioned inside the south swell window for Northern NSW.

As such, Thursday morning will probably start out small at most locations with a similar level of small residual east swell as per the last few days (perhaps a shade smaller). The new southerly swell should reach the Mid North Coast mid-late morning, progressing northwards to the Far North Coast mid-late afternoon: it may not quite reach the border by the end of the day. 

As for size, it’ll be quickly upwards across the Mid North Coast from mid-morning onwards, and by the end of the day should be somewhere in the 6ft+ range at exposed south facing beaches (although very poor quality due to gusty S/SW winds). Due to the acute southerly swell direction, surf size will be considerably smaller at beaches without good southerly exposure (3ft+ most open beaches, 1-2ft southern corners)

It’s hard to have much confidence on how far north the bulk swell will penetrate on Thursday due to the poor alignment of the fetch overnight tonight. A fair estimation would be somewhere to about Yamba or Ballina but I’d keep size expectations in check until Friday as this is when we’re more likely to see an appreciable increase across the border region.

Thursday's winds will also dictate quality to a large degree - gusty SW in the south, but only moderate SW tending S’ly in the Far North. With some luck we’ll see a reasonable increase in this region to allow for some small peelers across the semi-exposed points late afternoon.

In SE Qld on Thursday, don’t expect much surf as the new S’ly swell probably won’t arrive until overnight. As such, small lingering E’ly swell will proabbly be the only source throughout the day. There is an outside chance that we’ll see a late pulse at south facing beaches but it’s a low percentage game at the moment. 

On Friday the south swell should be well and truly established across most coasts. As per usual there will be a large range in wave heights between exposed beaches and protected locations, and the SE Qld region will also see much smaller surf due to the poor fetch alignment.

A developing ridge across the Queensland coast will maintain gusty S/SW tending S/SE winds north of Byron Bay, and gusty S’ly winds across the remaining Northern NSW coast south to about Port Macquarie.

South facing beaches in Northern NSW should see bumpy but solid 6ft+ surf from this fetch, with 3-4ft waves at remaining open beaches and 1-2ft surf inside sheltered southern corners. In SE Qld, wave heights will be very small from this source - just a foot or maybe two of inconsistent refracted swell at most open beaches, possibly up to 2ft to occasionally 3ft at some of the outer semi-exposed points, plus some bigger sets at the region’s handful of exposed south swell magnets (and they will be wind affected with a freshening S/SE flow). But in general: not really worth a day off work north of the border on Friday.

This weekend (Apr 11 - 12)

Not an amazing weekend of surf for the region but there will be plenty of waves.

The Thursday/Friday south swell will ease slowly from Saturday morning through Sunday, and wind will remain fresh from the southern quadrant north of Ballina - early SW tending S’ly then S/SE during the days. 

This will favour the semi-exposed points however due to the southerly swell direction, surf size will be smaller at these spots. Exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW should see early 3-5ft waves (easing during the day), with 2-3ft at most open beaches and 1-2ft surf inside protected corners. 

On the Mid North Coast there’ll be a similar level of swell but with more favourable conditions, mainly light offshores in the morning and moderate onshores in the afternoons.

On Sunday, surf size and wind strength will ease across all regions, so get in early for the best waves at your favourite south swell magnet.

Next week (Apr 13 onwards)

As discussed in Monday’s notes we’ve  got an excellent synoptic pattern setting up for next week. An amplifying Long Wave Trough over the south-eastern Tasman Sea is expected to focus off a series of intense fronts right through the primo south swell window on Sunday, aimed ideally for the entire NSW coast. Even SE Qld is likely to see some reasonably good waves from this source.

The sheer length and strength of this fetch looks incredible at the moment, stretching from the ice shelf through to about Sydney latitudes. This means we can expect a large and sustained south swell event through the first half of next week.

Current thinking is that Monday will dawn small at all beaches, but the new swell will start to show by mid-afternoon across the Mid North Coast, reaching far Far North Coast late afternoon (but possibly not SE Qld). South facing beaches could see some very big waves, owing to a large swell period in conjunction with an impressive significant wave height - exposed spots (especially down south) could push into the 8ft+ range at the height of the swell: again, expect much smaller surf at locations not directly exposed to the south.

In SE Qld, surf size will be much smaller due to the southerly direction but it’s reasonable to expect clean 2-3ft waves across semi-exposed points, reaching 3-5ft at the region’s handful of exposed south swell magnets. 

The other good news is that due to the storm tracks’ more eastern position, it should exert less influence on local winds. As such, the most likely outcome is early light offshores and afternoon sea breezes.

This swell is expected to peak overnight before easing throughout Tuesday (early 6-8ft+ sets at south facing beaches in Northern NSW, smaller elsewhere) but we may see a secondary SE swell arrive later Tuesday and into Wednesday morning, originating from a re-intensification of the primary fetch just off the southern tip of New Zealand’s South Island, later Sunday. This won’t be any bigger than the pre-existing, easing S/SE swell but should maintain strong energy across all coasts, probably around 4-6ft at exposed coasts in Northern NSW (much smaller north of the border, into SE Qld).

Let’s wait and see how Friday’s models pan out but for now, the first half of next week looks particularly exciting.