More of the same: continuing action on the semi-exposed points

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 11th February)

Best Days: Entire period: great waves across the points with a continuation of the existing E'ly swell. Next week: plenty of E'ly swell, still a chance for a sizeable pulse (although on standby right now).

Recap: Steadily building SE swell with good waves across the Gold Coast and protected Sunshine Coast points (nice 'lil screeny of First Point Noosa from our surfcam this arvo, below). Even some workable waves across parts of the Northern NSW Coast in and around a generally moderate to fresh E’ly airstream (often going light and variable with passing rain showers). In fact, winds south of about Coffs have been under 10kts for much of today, and most open beaches seem to be pulsing around the 4ft mark as a new E’ly swell starts to kick into gear.

This week (Feb 12 - 13)

More of the same is expected for the next few days, if anything the peak of the initial swell cycle has been brought forward, due to the latest model guidance which shows a peak of the trade flow south of New Caledonia today, before weakening slightly through the end of the week.

This should create 3-5ft surf at open stretches across most coasts through Thursday ahead of a slight downwards trend on Friday. Expect smaller surf across the points as per usual, and as for local winds, there’s really not much change to the existing synoptic pattern so the most likely scenario will be for a moderate SE gradient flow across SE Qld, tending E’ly across Northern NSW. There should however be pockets of light variable winds at times (especially in the mornings).

So overall - another couple of great days for the semi-exposed points that can pick up a reasonable percentage of swell but also offer a slight degree of protection from the wind.

This weekend (Feb 14 - 15)

I’ve slightly downgraded the weekend’s outlook from Monday, based on the latest computer model runs which maintain a healthy but slightly-weaker trade fetch through the northern Tasman Sea later this week. The alignment of this fetch is also expected to swing ever so slightly clockwise (i.e. a smidge more SE than E/SE) but I don’t think this will cause too many problems, mainly due to the depth, length and duration of these trades.

Saturday should see solid 3-4ft waves at most open stretches (smaller on the points etc), with a minor easing trend through Sunday. No major change is expected in the overall wind direction (somewhere near SE across Southern Queensland, to E in Northern NSW, possibly even light NE through Sunday afternoon) but overall a weak pressure gradient should allow wind strengths to pull back from what we’re expecting over the next few days. And there’ll be periods of light variable winds at times too, especially in the mornings. 

So overall - a fun round of waves across most beachbreaks this weekend, and plenty of runners on the semi-exposed points. 

Next week (Feb 16 onwards)

The trades north of New Zealand are expected to remain anchored in place for much of the long term period, which will ensure a lengthy supply of fun E’ly swell for the region. 

Unfortunately, the models have pulled back on any major enhancements within this trade flow (as was suggested on Monday) however the synoptic setup remains very similar - so I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a favourable rebound by Friday’s update.  Let’s wait and then to make a final call on the chances of a solid groundswell event from this quadrant next week.

Elsewhere, there are no other major systems of note in the long term outlook - a couple of minor fronts traversing the waters south of the lower Tasman Sea may kick up some minor southerly energy but it’s nothing worth working around at this stage. I’ll take a closer look on Friday.

Comments

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 11 Feb 2015 at 8:29pm

We keep getting trade swells and then downgrades on the low pressure augmentation.

No real complaints ...a wave served up every ten seconds or so.

rees0's picture
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rees0 Wednesday, 11 Feb 2015 at 9:02pm

Glad Ola didn't destroy the banks, Few around in really good nick.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Thursday, 12 Feb 2015 at 7:04am

What do you think of those local winds this morning Dawg?

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog Thursday, 12 Feb 2015 at 8:49am

Not overly impressed... The whole sunny coast is a write off...... Onshore most of the night... currently ese 12k, with 17k gusts...
Gold coast seaway, onshore overnight, currently sse 12k, 15k gusts...

One of my handful of spots - the gatta - not bad -basically calm overnight with a ssw influnce, certainly not a decent overnight offshore to sort out the lump....... So therefore gurgly crud swell, not 5 foot or "incredible" or "excellent" - at last count 32641 shortboarders, 15202 mals, 1851 lids, 76 sups, and dave the rave bodybashing, all enjoying eachothers company... Expect shit wind very soon...

Ballina - similar to the gatta - basically calm over night - a zephyr land breeze, but was onshore till 11pm.... Therefore lumpy crud swell.. Not 5 foot.......However, looks like 2647 less folk in the water at byron..... That's a score!!!!!~! Again, expect shit wind soon...... ;)

Cylinders85's picture
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Cylinders85 Thursday, 12 Feb 2015 at 9:56am

Is this season below average for cyclone activitie? Feels like the swell has been less then par and the winds we all know about that situation

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Thursday, 12 Feb 2015 at 11:41am

It's been a very quiet cyclone season in both the AOR and South Pacific.

Meanwhile another named storm in the NW Pacific (Higos).

SD, offshore winds till mid-late morning on North Coast this morning mate. Hardly a shit wind.

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog Thursday, 12 Feb 2015 at 5:10pm

Yeah, but the overnight shitwind has that much lump in the swell, It needed more than 4k of land zeyphyr for 3 hours..... It was still onshore at 6.30am.... Lots of workers have to get out of the water by 7.00..... ok winds from 7.00am to 10.30am, swinging from s to ssw..... Not ideal for beaches, like tallows, or shellys - sideshore, to even slightly sideshore/onshore....ok for the odd point.....
So 3 1/2 hours of ok winds at the points only......
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN60701/IDN60701.94599.shtml

I wouldn't use ballina stats, as it's at the airport,.... That's what 2, 3, 3 1/2km inland? That's like using Tewantin for a wind readout at Sunshine beach............. Cape Byron is a fair example for the region....

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Thursday, 12 Feb 2015 at 6:02pm

Amazing how you can tell me what the surf is like in my own backyard without looking at it from 1500 miles away Doggy. You should get your own website. No need for surf reports any more. You can tell everyone what it's like from Tasmania.

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog Thursday, 12 Feb 2015 at 6:25pm

Mate, look above.... You asked me for my opinion at 7ish this morning..... Don't ask me for my opinion and then have a hissy fit about my answer .... And you have heard of webcams, haven't you..... I don't have to be there..... ;p

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Thursday, 12 Feb 2015 at 8:38pm

You should cop this one on the chin mate.

Not only was it not a shit wind , it was offshore for most of the morning.

Ben called it right.

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog Friday, 13 Feb 2015 at 8:37am

No more magic mushrooms, free ride...... The "excellent" and "incredible" threads cover the week re' winds, not just 3 1/2 hours on thursday morning... Predominantly crap wind.....
In my eyes, excellent is 5 to 8 foot with no wobble from a shit wind....
Fr, you can dispute me with heresay, but I'm just looking at the BOM obs' at Byron, seaway, and Maroochy, the reports of wobble and lump thanks to ese winds, the limited options, comments by other folk in these threads ..... If you wish to dispute BOM data, perhaps there's a chance back at the climate change thread to swing you around into being a bit more of a skeptic re' BOM data..... ;p

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 13 Feb 2015 at 12:15pm

Dispute you with heresay?
Mate, you are pure gold. I'm looking at it and surfing it with my own eyes. Saw every surf beach between Byron and Ballina.
Shiteloads of fun surf.
Photo evidence, eyewitness reports and you continue to say the Earth is flat.
No harm done, it's all good fun but jeez, you should know when to quit mate. Your credibility takes a hammering when you headbutt reality so readily.

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog Friday, 13 Feb 2015 at 4:51pm

That's a bit rough, stevo lol......Do you just wanna fight or something this week, man??? Fun surf?????? Fun aint "excellent' or "incredible".... Excellent.............. Incredible................Mate your credibilty is the one in question hehehe.... You bend with the breeze, mate......... We're talking wed' through to Sunday right??? Not just a brief thursday morning, right????????

Speaking of bending with the breeze, last week, on friday you rated thursday as shit... Gurgle was the word......
And I quote "Huh? Go look at the reports the past couple days. It was gurgle with hardly any S swell in the mix."
http://www.swellnet.com/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-n...

But on the actual thursday, you wrote "amazing how few people surfing today. at least where I was. Bit of chunk"...
http://www.swellnet.com/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-n...

I was confused and asked you the difference between chunk and gurgle lol..... No comment was the loud reply.... But bottomline was on friday 6/2, you said thursday 5/23 was gurgle...

Well here's thursdays 5/2/15report on the beach ya dick ;p - http://tandemsurfandsport.com.au/?p=14147

So, last week 3 to 4 foot with a southwind is gurgle... hahahahaha.....
But this week, 3 to 4 foot onshore is good.....Fun surf...... FFS Consistency is all i ask for, Steve.....

Actual facts -
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60701/IDQ60701.94569.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60701/IDQ60701.94580.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60701/IDQ60701.94592.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN60701/IDN60701.94599.shtml

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 13 Feb 2015 at 8:08pm

go home dawg. Last drinks was an hour ago. your missus is waiting up for you with a glass of warm milk.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Saturday, 14 Feb 2015 at 11:22am

Wow... You hate being wrong, don't you.....
Now karma has set in lol
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN60701/IDN60701.94599.shtml

Don't forget the leggy today, mate... ;)

boogiefever's picture
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boogiefever Saturday, 14 Feb 2015 at 8:28pm

http://ts1.mm.bing.net/th?&id=HN.608030987187783938&w=300&h=300&c=0&pid=...

haha. keep it going, I love the hole ur digging shitdog.

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog Saturday, 14 Feb 2015 at 11:01pm

Ahh. Free rides love doll....

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Saturday, 14 Feb 2015 at 8:51pm

Mate I just got out of the water at the Pass ....it was butter texture, 3ft breaking from outside take-off rock to Clarkes. You do realise the AWS is at the top of Cape Byron and winds accelerate up the cliff face. Just like they do at Cape Moreton and DI. Sea level wind was way less than 10 knots. Beautiful.
SE is offshore at the Pass, ESE is fine.

Yesterday was same but bigger....and so on and so on.

Shitwind? It's been a bonanza of good to great point surf. Very consistent Feb so far.

This is pure gold. Being told from Tasmania that the surf is shit.
Maybe you need to go for a surf mate. Get away from the computer.

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog Saturday, 14 Feb 2015 at 11:15pm

Now you are just being an idiot.... have you ever looked at margs cam and gone "its shit"? Fair dinkum, steve..... Have you ever looked at Cronulla cam and gone "hmmm easterly wind".....
Ballina report - 5 out of ten
Goldy - 4 out of ten
Sunshine - 5 out of ten
far from "incredible", or "excellent"
Get a fuckn grip, mate.....
BTW, I said "I'm seeing se way offshore, but tending quite ese to east close in, thanks to the ridge being influenced by the inland trough/low.... Options limited to less than a handful between Nth nsw and Fraser........"
Less than a handful - Byron, Snapper, Burleigh, Noosa........

You still haven't explained gurgle from chunk..... And usually when I'm wrong, Don, ben, even craig jump in..... But you're on your own... oh except for cumstain from yaroomba who's never predicted anything except his own premature ejaculation.... Even Don said the beachies were fucked.....

Always got an excuse, steve.. "Ohh it's on the hill at byron"
No excuse for maroochy
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60701/IDQ60701.94569.shtml
No excuse for Yamba
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN60701/IDN60701.94589.shtml

You had a camera in your phone all week....... No photo's of 4 to 5 foot beachies....... That's cos they're fucked, like coastwatches cams show them to be....

But hey, that's all wrong... You're right..... You are always right........

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 15 Feb 2015 at 5:36am

Beachies?
You've got to stop drinking and posting Dog.
It's a tradewind swell mate. SE winds, Pointbreaks.
You know those big headlands? With some of the best waves on the world peeling down the northern side of 'em.
Read the packet mate.
How long did you live up here for?

We go through shit winds in Spring so we can surf these Points during Summer.

boogiefever's picture
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boogiefever Sunday, 15 Feb 2015 at 10:48am

I predict that shitdog will still want to argue the point.......isn't this whole argument about a numbskull from Tassie(well over 2000kaway) telling a Byron local that saw the surf with his own eyes that his vision of the surf is wrong? are u fucking serious????? id take first hand visual experience from a seasoned surfer than raw data interpretation guessing anyday of the week!!! let it go sheepshit.... take the loss, learn from it.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Sunday, 15 Feb 2015 at 11:37am

SD I do have to admit those pics that Ben posted of Burlz do look quite good and much better than I expected. Although this weekend was always gonna be kinder wind wise than what we saw during the week.

And I'm not sure burleigh is clean and offshore in a SE wind either (unlike the other points you named above).

Any this is old news. Time to move onwards and upwards.....oh that's right, it looks shit for the long term also!!! ;)

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog Thursday, 12 Feb 2015 at 10:38am

I dont think so, Cyl'..... Late Feb/ march is prime time anyway... that's why the stubbies used to be held in march... same deal now with the quicky being held late feb/early march.....
Had some td activity out in the pacific not too long ago, 1 or two off w.a, Ola, and another brewing up the top end now, but it looks like heading west.....
I must say, though, NW Oz and NT has been rather dry..... But that should change soon.....

Cylinders85's picture
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Cylinders85 Thursday, 12 Feb 2015 at 6:54pm

Hope the coming weeks are good for us.I don't remember the last time I seen a 6ft swell with the winds to match. Might have missed a few due to work.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 13 Feb 2015 at 9:57am

Mark 'Wilba' Wilson's been Johnny-on-the-spot at Burleigh this week. Late Thurs arvo:


And this morning looked pretty tasty too:



Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Friday, 13 Feb 2015 at 10:49am

Burleigh would have to be in my top three places to surf in Australia. Not including crowd factor of course.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Sunday, 15 Feb 2015 at 1:09pm

Don.... The argument was about a predominant ese tradeflow putting wobble into the swell, which it did, and that the overnight offshores wont be stong enough or long enough to create "excellent surf".... The headlines were "excellent", and "incredible"..... Now ,fair enough, bogmuncher from yaroomba may very well think that 3 to 5 foot trade swell is incredible... But free ride, who attacks the Balina reporter constantly for being slightly off, for him to argue that the winds have not been predominantly tainting this trade swell is beyond belief...
He stated the winds would be more than manageable.... I stated that the winds will only suit a handful of breaks ( 3- 5 foot is the perfect size for many beachbreaks and even the odd reef on the sunny coast, therefore dispersing the cowds)......
Now, from what i gather free ride is from lennox, one of the best points in the world.... yet he has had to drive 22km up to the pass to go surfing???????? Really?????
Why may one ask?.... Maybe because the east in the south east breeze has fucked the conditions at Lennox and Broken head..... Why drive to the pass when you live at lennox? Why not surf one of those "windows"..... Why? Because Lennox was fucked by the breeze..... And the only breaks that were coping were the handful I mentioned....
Anyways, the data is there for all to see.... Check BOM.... Wouldn't matter to bog fever... He's just a troll that has it in for me.... Have not seen one comment from him about anything else other than "dawg sucks".....
And I'm sure if free ride was spending a month in Alice springs, he would have the knowledge to look at cams, maps , and reports of his home town, and have a fairly good idea... So his tasmania rant is not only stupid, but insulting to commonsense.... I'm sure is lets say southey was in Cairns for a month, and he looked at the maps of vicco, the cams, the reports, he'd know exactly whats going on...... Same deal with you and Indo breaks, Donny.... You don't have to be on the beach, right? So it's pathetic, and I'd expect better from steve......

And lastly, mainly for bog breath, here are some comments from the reports and from forums over the last few days;
Wed' - Donweather - "We are two weeks away from the start of Autumn and constant onshore winds are not what us SE Qlders expect for this time of year"
"Give me that any day over this shit we're being served up for this week and into next!!!!"
(bogbreath -isn't donny the guy you respect the most? dickwad)

Thurs - Cylinder85 - "Is this season below average for cyclone activitie? Feels like the swell has been less then par AND THE WINDS WE ALL KNOW ABOUT THAT SITUATION"....

Thurs' - mark pridmore -" 5:05am: Bumpy 3ft E, Moderate ESE, Partly Cloudy 3/10
Dawn Report: There was a shift in the winds to the SSW for a while,
but they've swung back to the ESE now making for a return to the bumpy
conditions. More of the same for the day so don't expect too much from
the 3ft waves. "

Thurs ' Goldy - "Dawn Report: similar to yesterday afternoon, we have 3ft+ waves for
the Goldy this morning with moderate ESE winds along the open beaches
putting some bump into the conditions"

Thurs - Ballina - "Dawn Report: The winds have been light all night so the 3-4ft waves
are nice and clean this morning. They're still light and variable, so
you're best off checking around for where's ideal, but they'll be
settling in from the ESE later"

Thurs - Yamba - "The surfs about 3 to 4 foot on the sets and all spots have a few waves
. The best of it is the southern corners or headlands with a little
protection. Even though there's waves keep expectations low the waves
are really lumpy and wobbly from onshores all night. Plus we've got
that dirty water which for me isn't making things to inviting"....

Anyway, i'm done... Got a sick wife... been sick for a while.... Not good....She's more important to me than some troll on the sunny coast, or bitching about 4 foot trade swell.....
C ya round......

donweather's picture
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donweather Sunday, 15 Feb 2015 at 6:45pm

Can't see too much wobble in those burleigh pics SD?

And mate you mentioned me above that I wasn't chirping in hence I must have been agreeing with ya so I then jumped in and stated it certainly looked better than what I thought it would look like particularly at burleigh which is not protected from SE swell or locally generated SE or E/SE windswell and then ya have a go at me too? WTF?

boogiefever's picture
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boogiefever Sunday, 15 Feb 2015 at 2:28pm

yap yap yap! jesus shitdog..... u need help! hats off to ur mrs 4 putting up with u. sunny coast has been poo all week, no disputing that as I have seen 4 myself each morning,what we r discussing is how the fuck freeride can see the surf, ride the surf,report on the surf, and yet ur guessing is meant to b more accurate? thurs Ballina report sounds just like what freeride said.....I wasn't there so I have to take his word for it. u weren't there either so shut the fuck up and take ur medicine . im no troll.., learn the meaning of words b4 using them..... im just a reader/commenter who wont b pushed around by an arrogant bully who cant accept another opinion!!!!! now don't running off crying to mummy, accept that u bit off more than u could chew and come back next week a little more humble, a little more meek and lot less of a conceited tool.

mick-free's picture
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mick-free Monday, 16 Feb 2015 at 8:24am

Geez looks all time for Thursday /Friday on the points

donweather's picture
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donweather Monday, 16 Feb 2015 at 8:30am

Not sure what you're looking at MF but it looks very different to what I'm seeing!!!

mick-free's picture
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mick-free Monday, 16 Feb 2015 at 8:37am

Just took a call from a frother up there. Building to 3.8m Thursday on SN charts.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Monday, 16 Feb 2015 at 9:51am

Dog, you just screwed the pooch mate.
Step away from the puter and freshen up a bit.
You'll come back a better man for it.

There's plenty of real shitwind to get excited about coming up.

50young's picture
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50young Monday, 16 Feb 2015 at 10:53am

Nice waves to be had on Saturday Morning at Kirra with light offshore wind