South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 9th February)

Best Days: Entrire period: great waves in Southern Queensland with a slowly building SE tending E'ly swell, biggest late Fri/Sat. Next week: good chance for a sizeable E'ly swell.

Recap: Steadily easing swells since Saturday with favourable morning winds. 

This week (Feb 10 - 13)

Freshening SE winds through the Coral Sea will kick up some new short range swell for southern Qld over the coming days. This should result in a steady upwards trend in the size department, each day building incrementally on the last - although moderate to fresh SE winds will confine the best waves to the semi-exposed points. Swell direction will initially be SE on Tuesday but by Wednesday should tend more E/SE.

Additionally, wave heights will be bigger in more northern locations (continentally speaking, up to Fraser Island) due to the closer proximity to the swell source. Our swell model seems to be picking up this difference quite well: the Gold Coast should start off around 2ft Tuesday morning while the Sunshine Coast should start off around 2-3ft (open beaches, that is: smaller on the points).

At this stage a plateau is expected through late Friday or Saturday, with solid 3-5ft waves at exposed beaches in southern Queensland, and smaller waves along the points. Again, fresh SE winds will continue to focus the best waves to the protected points. 

In Friday’s model runs there had been a suggestion for a tropical depression to intensify within the trades later this week, however it’s been pulled back a little in the last few runs (and consequently kept a lid on surf size at the peak of this cycle). However, the good news is that this established trade flow is expected to continue delivering strong swells for quite some time and there are sizeable options still on the cards for the long term period (keep on reading below!).

As for the Northern NSW Coast, initially the Coral Sea fetch will be mainly favourable for locations north of Byron Bay, however over the coming days it’s expected to merge with a more established trade flow that’s developing north of New Zealand. This particular system will favour the entire East Coast for quality E’ly swell and we can expect a solid building trend from about Thursday onwards with solid 3-5ft surf at open beaches through Friday and Saturday. 

Winds will mainly hold out of the eastern quadrant all week but shouldn’t be too strong over, in fact we should even see pockets of light variable winds in the mornings. So all in all, expect small surf for the next couple of days (south of about Ballina) ahead of some solid offerings for the second half of the week. 

This weekend (Feb 14 - 15)

Looking pretty good for the weekend. Friday’s late peak of E’ly swell should level out into Saturday with reasonably consistent 4-5ft waves at most open beaches, and smaller surf across the points. 

The wind regime is expected to be similar to what we’re expecting through the week but it may be a little lower in strength as the pressure gradient temporarily relaxes across the coastal margin. So, there’s a very good chance for a period of light variable winds in most regions. An easing trend in the size department is likely through the afternoon.

On Sunday we’ll probably see wave heights tail off a little, but with similar conditions as per Saturday. All in all a really good weekend of waves coming up.

Next week (Feb 16 onwards)

The good news for the long term is that we seem to be in the early stages of a considerable broad scale blocking pattern. What this means is that this trade flow will remain entrenched across the Northern Tasman Sea for quite some time. 

In fact, the latest computer models are showing a broad tropical depression moving south from a position east of New Caledonia during the weekend, ridging against the large stationary high over New Zealand longitudes (see chart below), and generating a very strong easterly groundswell for the early to middle part of next week, and likely to hold through until the end of the week.

While it’s still too early to pin down size estimates, this is certainly shaping up as an extended period of quality groundswell from the eastern quadrant, with a very good chance of some sizeable waves mid-next week too. More on this in Wednesday’s update.