South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 6th February)

Best Days: Weekend: looks good for Mid North Coast with light winds and a fun south swell. Should be some fun small waves across the semi-exposed points of SE Qld and Far Northern NSW (albeit small in size). Tues/Wed: fun renewal of SE swell in SE Qld.  Mid-late next week: extended run of large E'ly swell still on the cards.

Recap: Despite the downgrade, Thursday and Friday have produced great waves across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. We’ve seen a mix of building S’ly groundswell plus some mid range SE swell, with the best waves found at the semi-exposed points.

This weekend (Feb 7 - 8)

No major changes to the weekend outlook.

We’ve still got a robust SE flow through the Coral Sea but the southern extent of the primary fetch is at about Byron Bay longitudes, which means locations south of here simply won’t see any of the associated short range energy (and, northern-most locations, i.e. the Sunshine Coast will see the biggest waves).

The fetch is now retreating so conditions will slowly improve across SE Qld over the weekend (at exposed beaches, that is) but Saturday will still have periods of bumpy conditions at times. 

Expect 3-4ft sets at open beaches here early morning (easing during the day, smaller across semi-exposed points), with 2-3ft waves across the Gold Coast (also, easing during the day and smaller across semi-exposed points). There’s a chance for early light SW winds in a few regions early morning but for the most part expect moderate to fresh SE winds. 

Lighter winds and smaller swells will prevail across SE Qld on Sunday. 

In Northern NSW, we’ll see a dominant southerly swell moving back up the coast (another pulse is just pushing into Sydney now with 4ft+ sets).. This should provide occasional 3-4ft+ sets at exposed south swell magnets during Saturday, although it may not reach some regions - especially the north - until the afternoon. So anticipate a building trend throughout the day, with early light winds tending moderate SE during the day (a little stronger in the north). Beaches not completely open to the south will be much smaller.

On Sunday, this south swell will slowly ease but south swell magnets should still see early 3ft sets. Light variable winds and sea breezes are likely in all areas, so it’ll be well worth a morning paddle. Again, surf size will be smaller at beaches with less southerly exposure.

Next week (Feb 9 onwards)

The long term forecast still looks excellent. 

Initially, Monday will see the trades kick up across the northern Tasman Sea, feeding into the Coral Sea, and this will generate a fun short range SE swell for SE Qld in the 2-3ft range through Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will remain from the SE so the semi-exposed points should offer fun clean runners.

A series of small southerly groundswells are also expected through next week but no major size is likely, only south swell magnets in Northern NSW will pick up any appreciable size. A weak secondary ridge through the central Tasman Sea should maintain small levels of peaky easterly swell through the middle of the week across Northern NSW beaches. 

However of much greater interest is a broad belt of developing trades north of New Zealand from about Sunday onwards. Initially this will be develop in our mid-to-far swell window, but it’s expected to broaden and strengthen through the week with a retrograde track. Current model forecasts are showing quite an impressive swell generating region through Thursday and Friday - probably one of the better trade belts of the season so far.

So, the upshot of this is for a steady upwards trend from Thursday onwards (3-4ft+), building strongly through the weekend (4-6ft or more at exposed beaches) ahead of a peak through Monday and Tuesday in the 6-8ft range at exposed locations. In fact, our model guidance currently has surf size holding 6ft or more from Sunday right through until the following Friday (see chart below from the Gold Coast) - a six day run of large E'ly groundswell!

Whilst these wave heights may be a little overly ambitious, all signs are certainly pointing to an extended run of quality (and sizeable) groundswell from one of our favourite synoptic setups. Let’s tune in on Monday to see what the latest model developments are saying.