South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 4th February)

Best Days: Entire period: should be good surf across the semi-exposed points. Weekend: looks good for Mid North Coast with light winds and a fun south swell. Mid-late next week: solid options out of the east.

Recap: Small early Tuesday but a solid E/NE groundswell from TC Ola built in tandem with a fresh S’ly groundswell (in Northern NSW) and some short range S/SE swell, all of which seemed to offer a comparable size - anywhere between 3ft and 5ft at their respective facing beaches (across both the SE Qld and Northern NSW regions). It’s been hard to get a precise estimate of surf size today, due to the E/NE tending E’ly swell (from TC Ola) being very inconsistent, and also a wide range of buoy data. For example the Gold Coast buoy has nudged just a fraction higher than yesterday but peak swell periods have increased by a couple of seconds. These trends are mirrored at the Mooloolaba buoy, however the Tweed buoy has seen a slight drop in size.  Overall it seems some exposed coasts got close to the 6ft mark but the SE Qld points and other protected spots were much smaller (this may be attributable to a slight clockwise swing in the swell direction), and wave heights were also smaller south of about Yamba. Nevertheless, excellent waves were reported at many locations yesterday and today.

This week (Feb 5 - 6)

Downgrade. There’s a headline for ya. 

Despite the models holding steady from late last week, through the weekend and then into Monday - we saw a significant departure from this trend later Tuesday, with the weakening TC Ola then expected to become absorbed by a passing long wave trough to the south. This means it’ll be whisked to the south-east and outside of our swell window post-haste.

So, the ramifications of these developments are mainly related to surf size, because we’re still looking at a strong ridge across the southern Queensland coastline, thanks to the interaction between a broad tropical low north-west of New Caledonia, and a large high pressure system across the south-east of the country.

In fact this tropical low will move westwards towards the central Queensland coast later this week. As this process occurs, SE winds will strengthen about the southern Coral Sea, generating plenty of short range SE swell for SE Qld - but probably not a lot for locations south of about Ballina.

However, surf size will initially become much smaller than anticipated in Monday’s notes. SE Qld will be relying on the fading leftovers of groundswell from TC Ola on Thursday, plus short range SE energy from the building ridge (somewhere in the 3ft range at open beaches, smaller across the semi-exposed points). 

Northern NSW will see very little short range SE swell south of Ballina, but conversely, a strong southerly groundswell will make its way up the coast during Thursday, with some sizeable waves for south facing beaches by the afternoon - possibly in the 4-6ft range at the swell magnets. Fresh S’ly tending S/SE winds will generally make conditions rather unattractive at those spots picking up the size but there’ll be good options across the semi-exposed points after lunch. 

On Friday, the south swell will slowly ease across northern NSW but local winds are expected to remain similar to Thursday, so semi-exposed points will be your best option with fun runners.

In SE Qld, we’ll probably see a slight building trend in short range SE swell during the day however the Sunshine Coast will probably be the biggest beneficiary - exposed beaches should reach a choppy 4-6ft by the end of the day (smaller earlier), with better 3-4ft waves across semi-exposed points and much smaller surf across protected spots (like Noosa) for the late session. From the Gold Coast to about Byron, surf size will probably be around a foot smaller. 

This weekend (Feb 7 - 8)

A fairly steady trend in the surf department this week in all areas: biggest Saturday morning, easing through the day and into Sunday.

Moderate to fresh SE winds will persist about the Far Northern NSW and SE Qld coasts both days (although lighter SW winds are possible early morning), and wave heights will be biggest across the northern Sunshine Coast (3-5ft early morning open beaches early Saturday, smaller on the points, easing into Sunday). Expect smaller surf from this source across the Gold Coast and henceforth with increasing southerly latitude.

Northern NSW isn’t looking too bad this weekend. We’ll see much lighter winds thanks to the influence of a Tasman High, and a new south swell due overnight Friday should provide good 3-4ft waves at exposed south facing beaches early Saturday morning, before easing in size through the rest of the weekend. Sunday morning will be smaller but winds should be light and variable for the early session.

Next week (Feb 9 onwards)

The long term forecast is looking excellent. The trades north of New Zealand are expected to fire up and develop a broad, sustained fetch from early next week onwards, and in fact there’s a suggestion that we could see some more significant developments within this region mid-late next week. 

So right now the general consensus is for a steady and strong upwards trend in easterly swell from about the middle of next week, with a chance for some sizeable groundswell next weekend. I’ll have more details on this in Friday’s notes.