Directional south swell short term, cyclone potential long term
South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 30th January)
Best Days: Sat/Sun: exposed beaches both mornings with light winds and a strong but pulsey (and probably easing) south swell. Expect very small surf in SE Qld. Tues onwards: good confidence for building swell all week thanks to a developing Tropical Cyclone, which could produce large waves by the week's end.
Recap: Certainly been an active week of swell. The central Tasman trough maintained good SE swell across the coast through Wednesday and Thursday although due to the direction, surf size tailed off north of Byron Bay, and winds were tricky at exposed spots. Today we’ve seen a strong southerly groundswell advance along the coast (reaching 8-10ft in Southern NSW this morning!), and our Coffs surfcam - which is at a south swell magnet - is showing occasional 5-6ft sets. The swell doesn’t seem to have reached SE Qld yet, which is still seeing a small mix of SE and E’ly swells from mid-week sources. Early light winds are now up from the NE at most coasts so conditions have dropped a lot in quality.
This weekend (Jan 31 - Feb 1)
We’ve got quite a complex weekend to forecast for across this region.
The reason for this is that the low responsible for today’s building swell (across the greater NSW coast) has already reached a peak, however the energy we’re seeing today was generated on Thursday during its slow westward track from the central Tasman Sea.
Fortunately, the initial intensification happened within the North Coast’s south swell window, but the primary fetch is now moving slowly into the swell shadow of the Hunter curve, which will somewhat restrict wave heights north of Seal Rocks (as most of the energy will have to refract back into the coast, even into south swell magnets).
That being said, we’ve got a few characteristics in our favour - (1) the existing active sea state, which the current (and future) fetch will continue to work off, and (2) an expectation that the low will remain very slow moving in the south-western Tasman Sea on Saturday, before tracking slowly eastward into Sunday (under a weakening phase).
So for the next 48 hours at least there’ll be a decent southerly fetch in the southern Tasman Sea, just not in a particularly good part of the North Coast’s swell window (although if we take a closer look, the fetch is expected to expand longitudinally through Saturday afternoon and into Sunday, which in my eyes is actually a positive development despite the fact that winds will be weaker than Friday night).
Unfortunately for SE Qld, this entire episode is pretty much outside of the swell window with very little energy expected aside from the initial pulse later today or early tomorrow, at south swlel magnets.
So, the weekend overview is for a wide range in wave heights between exposed beaches and protected locations along the North Coast. I’m expecting an initial peak on Saturday morning (essentially the same pulse we’re seeing now) with a downwards trend through the afternoon and then into Sunday morning. Locations with very good southerly exposure should manage 4-5ft sets at the peak of this cycle, with smaller 2-3ft waves at most open beaches and very small surf inside southern corners.
As the fetch slowly widens on Saturday afternoon, we should see a smaller reinforcing pulse later Sunday and Monday from the south. Exposed south swell magnets in Northern NSW could see a late kick up to 3-4ft+ but it’s very hard to have confidence on the timing of this particular pulse.
As for winds - early offshores and afternoon sea breezes are the most likely scenario. The Mid North Coast will probably see light variable winds both mornings but north of Yamba we’ll probably be under a nor’west flow, which should suit the open south facing beaches quite nicely.
And for SE Qld - I’m really not expecting a great deal of size this weekend. If you’ve got a particularly reliable south swell magnet up your sleeve (all four of 'em), that’ll be your best option on Saturday (maybe some 2-3ft+ sets, clean under the NW breeze) but otherwise we’re looking at a slow mix of residual swells between 1ft and 2ft. Smaller surf is likely through Sunday.
Next week (Feb 2 onwards)
Righto. Before we get talking about the Coral Sea cyclone activity, let me quickly make mention of a couple of south swell expected through the Tasman Sea mid-next week, from a series of frontal passages. They’ll only benefit Northern NSW south swell magnets, the first on Wednesday (occ 2-3ft sets) with a bigger swell due later Thursday or perhaps early Friday around 3-4ft+.
Prior to this, Monday and Tuesday will see slowly easing S’ly swell from the weekend - Monday should initially have some decent sets (3-4ft+ south swell magnets) but it’ll be much smaller elsewhere. Don’t expect any of this south swell to make a noticeable impact north of Byron Bay.
So, on to the Coral Sea… and jeez, the charts have certainly swung in our favour since these notes were last prepared on Tuesday.
A small tropical low is current positioned northwest of New Caledonia, and it’s because it’s current within Fiji’s ‘Area of Responsibility’ (for cyclone monitoring), the FijiMet service are currently tracking its cyclone potential. They currently anticipate Cat 1 status by Saturday.
Fortunately for surf potential - the latest model guidance has this system tracking due south into the Northern Tasman Sea, whilst intensifying rapidly.
Although it’s acknowledged that this swell window has been somewhat of a disappointment so far this (cyclone) season, there is very good agreement between the models that (1) we’ll see the presence of a significant Tropical Cyclone in this region sometime early next week, and (2) it’ll stay within the longitudinal confines of 165E and the mainland (i.e. won’t be whisked over to the east).
What this means is that we are once again on standby for a solid swell event from early-mid week onwards.
Some models - including the one driving our surf model forecast - have it developing much earlier than the others, and have a building trend from Tuesday (E/NE) with solid waves expected through Wednesday and Thursday, before the swell direction then swings east and then south-east (at least in SE Qld) as the TC tracks southward along the coast, at considerable strength.
At this early stage there’s not much point getting too caught up in the particulars, because we can be very confident that the models will continually revise their output over the coming days.
Nevertheless there is a medium to high chance for a large swell event during the second half of next week.
So let’s keep it nice and broad for now, and anticipate building energy from this system from about Tuesday onwards. On the balance, this system looks like a strong contender for a couple of days of large, powerful point waves across the region - especially if the model guidance holds true with S/SE winds. How big? I'm not prepared to put a size on it right now but I feel reasonably confident that this will be the biggest swell event we have seen in quite some time (say, within the last six months).
I will continue to update my thoughts in the comments section below over the weekend, with another comprehensive update on Monday.
Have a great weekend!
Comments
So much about keeping the forecasts short while Craig is away, eh?
Great summary cheers Ben
Yeah, nice work, Ben... I'd have to say these current models (all models) are the most encouraging I have seen in a long loooong time re' SEQ...... When you have lows on the western side of New Cal heading south, it's crack the bubbly time.... When you have have a high cradle it, and at the same time the potential for another low to form in the tropics, well........ Maybe break out the Cubans......
Does anyone remember the 23 day swell back in the 70s? ;)
Tell you what, Ballina Bar was absolutely booming this arvo onto dark. That S swell pulse was strong. Shame about the 15-20knot nor-easter or it would have been on like donkey kong at the point.
Re: this probable TC. I'm more worried about a coast hugger/bank busting scenario than any lack of size. A massive bank busting close range storm would be the last thing needed as we enter the summer denouement.
"Re: this probable TC. I'm more worried about a coast hugger/bank busting scenario than any lack of size. A massive bank busting close range storm would be the last thing needed as we enter the summer denouement."
100% completely agree Steve, and in fact these were my exact words to the guys I surfed with this morning after discussing the impending TC next week.
We don't need the GFS model. Feck off!!! and give me EC any day!!!
I've been watching that flow of sand into the point all week and talking to crew in the surf about it. The conversation goes the same every time - " How good is this looking for our autumn banks ! Fuck I hope we don't get a massive ENE swell that gives us bugger all surfable waves and scours the joint ".
What size was the B Bar freeride ? I watched it on the waterways cam late - looked beefy.
It was solid 6ft, probably bigger once you were out there. Serious energy smashing into the walls.
Great forecast Ben again. Wow!
Does look very promising for sure.
Like you say Sheepio, swell for awhile I reckon, Once it starts it does repeat ie weather patterns over a few weeks. thats MO;)
Have to agree with sheepdog low west of New Cal. . Crack the bubbly! Always a good start at least...let's not forget the nature of the beast. I for one will be clearing my gutters and having a look around clearing the yard. Any track a few degrees further south and +50kt winds on the coast are more than likely.....I heard a tale today of a time in the 70s when noosa car park was 5ft( as in "in the car park") and 20 odd feet on the points. The story go's that somebody died that day. Also had some old salts recall gum trees snapping like twigs in the same area. I'm sure the landscape was slightly different when the occurred but I for one hope I get to witness such an event ( without the death of course)....time will tell.....
Heffo, I'm hearing ya champ, live in the hinterland and have witnessed gummies 130ft tall, 2ft wide at the base snap just like that, back in...? 2004......????? Not sure really what year but around the quickie pro, full on shit, Cat 1 on the coast was definitely 125kmh winds.
I'm with you not looking forward to a system to come right on top of us.
I'm not saying right now, but things can happen so fast within the next week with all these models....?
Well I should mean a weather system like this I haven't seen in years up here.......!
Could be dangerous?
was that the year of the start of Occys comeback? I believe there was a qualifying event moved to pt Cartwright I wandered Dow and actuallywitnessed His win and celebrations! didn't even know there was a comp on and didn't take long to pick that it was Occy in a heat "A BACK HAND GOOFY SNAP LIKE NO OTHER"...I certainly wasn't expecting that! A day I will never forget for ...Also have footage from the same swell event (vhs cam Corder) of the biggest I have ever seen a wave break wide of carties. I couldn't even estimate the size. Massive left way, waaaaay wide of the point but when you watched it it was like it was in slow motionew. It must have been 3 or 4 seconds for each curling hollow section of lip to go over the falls and In fact it's the only time I have ever seen it break! ...
I'll have to hunt around for the tape...and a cheap vhs player...haha
Latest GFS looks a bit more sane. Drifts it in then slides it SE with a possible following system having potential if it stalls near the North Island.
It's surf Jim.
Yeah for me it's just GFS aligning more so with EC and Access G rather than dooms day.
Don and fr..... Also known as Captain negative and Major hard to please......
"Re: this probable TC. I'm more worried about a coast hugger/bank busting scenario than any lack of size. A massive bank busting close range storm would be the last thing needed as we enter the summer denouement."
"100% completely agree Steve, and in fact these were my exact words to the guys I surfed with this morning after discussing the impending TC next week.
We don't need the GFS model. Feck off!!! and give me EC any day!!!
The swell hasn't even hit and we're already hunting for negatives?
Both give yourselves an uppercut.......
Or!!!!! Perhaps if you both chant in harmony for long enough, you might be able to weaken the system...... Perhaps even destroy it..... ;)
I just hope this system doesn't stall where that frenchie island will dissect the fetch on it's back NE flank!!!
Well latest ASCAT has confirmed my fears above.
I'd be more concerned about that bloody inland trough that has hung around since YOUR NT/WA "cyclone"........ ;) It's blocking progression of the high, which we all hope will cradle this system and create a decent fetch......
Yes please!!!
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65648.html
Btw, just got back from the local....... Solid but badly wind affected.....
Funny story too. About 2 weeks ago, one of the locals scrawled some graffiti in the chair - "sheepdog wanks".....
So last week I added to it......
It then read "sheepdog wanks his HUGE cock"
Today, I found that this dawg hating Tasmanian graffiti legend added some more... It read "Sheepdog wanks his HUGE cock over gay porn"
But it now reads "Sheepdog wanks his HUGE cock over gay porn of you sucking dick"
Lets see what he comes up with next visit lol
Lol. That's gold!!!
Gold Dawgie, funny as.
Making some great friends down there eh;)
Hahaha..... Only really surf by myself.... Had a couple of sessions with a bloke named paul, and another bloke named Todd I think..... pauly is a good guy.... Don't really know Todd..... Just seen him around a bit...
I'm wondering if Wesley has been around...... Gday wes if ya out there...... ;)
Ola is born.
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65648.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20032.txt
Ola ola rocknrolla!
Maybe they should just retire " Lame " as an Australian name for Cyclones .......
Gday, Southey.... I think once it gets to here;
- it wont matter if it's a cyclone or an ex cyclone.... As long as it gets there..... A man with your extensive experience would know a low doesn't need a "name" to produce good waves ;)
Wish that high would freakn hurry up...... Freezin' down here...... And I wish that inland trough/low that's been a permanent fixture over inland qld would quietly f' off.....
There always better when Nadi names em
Actually, next time we have a gulf or NT cyclone, I'd love to see an aboriginal name... I can't recall one....
Ola Bola.
Bola was as good as they get. Lets hope Ola does the same.
Loving the latest Bellmere weather 5 day GFS .
GFS appears to be the outlier at the moment.
Well clearly I spoke too soon. She's gone Cat 3 which is exactly what GFS was progging whilst the others reding have her that intense. EC now aligning with GFS. Shit hey!!!
You guys still reasonably confident Ola could have some quality? Thinking of juggling some work and getting up there either wed or Thur for a 24hr strike mish.
But it now reads "Sheepdog wanks his HUGE cock over gay porn of you sucking dick"
Sounds like you've got yourself a penpal Sheepdog
Yehh, cool, aye mick..... Might even rename the break to sheepdogs lol
Hey shoredump... Models still look good for solid 4 to 6 foot... Points only though,,, Bit of se wind expected....
Thanks Sheepy
Two times in row now, all the EC and GFC models....? Was really hoping on a fairy tale system sitting off the coast;(
Weather patterns follow each IMHO, within a few week of each other.
Still a nice looking low off the coast which will produce some bit bigger than 3ft surf in these parts.
Coolio.
Good but not great. That's what I was thinking the last couple of days. I might sit this one out and come and annoy you some other swell Welly.
It's a small system really lacking a supporting ridge but the track is to die for.
Swellnets "Swell Train Analysis" is a bit all over the shop atm.... I can't see south facing beaches on the sunny coast jumping to 5 foot plus tomorrow arvo.... But I can see some increasing ene swell tomorrow, and stepladder sets from the east -ene overnight on tues..... Tues morning compared to wed morning will be like two different oceans....
This swell will have some "whip" to it... I used to find these sort of swells have a very peculiar type of power.... Not "grunt", not "punch", but a sort of whip cracking quality, especially on take off.... Hard to describe.....
Welly, I still think this is the best setup I've seen for you guys in a while... Should be a good 5 days of waves starting tomorrow, tailing off with a trade swell, and more stuff brewing next week....
Shorey, it'll be better than "good"..... It'll be 7 to 8 out of 10
Ok Freeride and Sheepdawg.
Pressing the green Go button for a mish.
Cheers.
Yew!
Sunny, goldy or nnsw?
Likely Goldy, as I'll be staying at a mates house there. But I've been wanting to check out that semi secret spot much further north, the one that would require his 4x4.... It's a long drive for a day trip and the swell probably too South for there by Thursday anyway. Hmmm have to come up with a plan of some sort
Mid-late morning king tides would make the day trip drive to that semi secret spot you refer to a wee bit of a mission also!!!
Is the cmc 6 day maps a reliable forecasting tool?
Last time I checked, they had a low skill score compared to some of the other models - but they can be OK at times. Haven't used them a lot though, personally.
Shoredump, this is a QLD swell. Head north and work south with the system.
Swell direction will be key as the system moves. Be there in advance of it, not behind it if you want to score.
I second Fr's comments...... Swell will start at sunny/ fraser coast first... Later in the week, NNSW will be the go.....
I'd appreciate the lack of spot naming in this thread too please, particular from those out of towners that don't intend to surf SE Qld!!!
Don't "feckn" tempt me.... Donny...... ;p
Keep ur trap shut chihuahua !!!!! We already know..... 12 spots pumping, yadda yadda yadda. Even the 4wd comments from others aren't helping..... Obviously u don't need a 4wd to visit ur usual weekend car park.
Gee I'd hate to frcking see it if I did tempt ya!! FFS!!
He'll never learn don..... Decent at predicting weather..... Otherwise, major fuckwit!
I heard a secret spot just N of Sunshine Beach might be cooking.
Place of shade.
True... But when the swell turns more ese later in the week, a certain paddock would be worth trudging trough, FR........ ;)
I'd like you all to shut up now please.
Thank you
Gary
Sunshine Coast
with 4x4 and Tue, Wed, Thur free.
Yeah no worries mugsy.... We'll leave the banter to ch7, ch9, abc24, spinksys surf report and the local radio station surf reports.... We wouldn't wanna create a crowd up your way.... We know how untouched and isolated that stretch of coast is..... (just jokes mate ;) )
Spare seat mugo...?
Where shall I meet ya ;)
I know an island who knows an island.
Actually just ran into a mate who was going to QLD to chase the swell. Invited me but it'd be very poor form to miss the young fellas first day at school so I could go surfing.
Bad news about the ferry though. Only running twice a day and then only for those that have registered for the text alert for what time they're sailing.
I know of 2 islands that isn't really an island at all.... And of course, we wont mention a certain secret point where they used to hold a famous man on man comp. back in the 70/80s......... Not a bad wave with this sort of swell I hear......... the rivermouth down the road gets ok too......
And the two cvnts sprouting out the most won't be within coo fecking wee of any of these spots. Nice work gents!!!
And none of you could paddle out to my areas.................mind you I wouldn't mind betting a few GC boys will do a mercy dash to one spot ...........
Fitzroy-21.... Fitzroy reef? Lady Elliot island?
Which one...................or ones...............you could name all 2000 reefs if you wanted to. Take a pick. You need to know what works in what wind and swell.
Don we didn't and haven't named any fucking spot, unlike your ferry trip last year....... Stop pretending SEQ is indo, mate..... The 40 or 50 blokes and one dipshit that frequent this particular forecast blog all know anyway, otherwise bloggers wouldn't be mentioning "ferry rides"..... ffs..... How many ferry rides in seq Don????? Are you gonna have a go at him for mentioning ferry rides cos' it's a dead give away, mate? You "feckn" blurted all over these pages last cyclone season about that place when you were going there/been there......... Did I call you cunt? Did anyone call you a cunt? You actually NAMED the place!!!!!
So stop telling people what to say and not "feckn" say, especially about breaks that you live nowhere near, or ones that have cameras on them 24/7 in the middle of bloody suburbia...
Yeah, I absolutely agree with you on semi secret spots, but not the qld points that will be mentioned and recommended on saturation media outlets....
And you are delusional if you think a few cheeky comments on one website blog will have any affect on the crowd at ANY of the breaks you are concerned about... They would be packed, even if swellnet didn't exist... Both coast radio stations and Brisbane tv will make sure of it........
Now have your valium sandwich and calm the fuck down.....
And, Ben, it would be interesting to know how many individuals have visited this thread. Don could then minus the locals off the total, deduct those like me or Southey who are definitely not coming to take his waves during this swell, then divide the remainder ( those brisbanites and interstaters who were you know,,,,THROWN over the edge and encouraged by fr and my outrageous comments) into all the point breaks of seq......
He could then write back to fr and me saying "you cunts, instead of 764 people out at the S********, there were 781!!!!! Yoooouuuu mongrels!!!!!"
Ffs.....
Feck it, just typed an essay back to you SD but it fecking crashed when I tried to post it. Can't be fecked trying to repost now cause it's not worth my time wasting time responding to your shit.
But in summary, if ya aint gonna surf it, shut the feck up about naming or even hinting at locations, particularly after I asked so politely and then you turn around and post another handful of posts hinting at spots. That's called dumping a big turd on my chest mate!!!
Children! Stop it!
New forecast notes are up: https://www.swellnet.com/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2015/02/02/building-swells
More than happy for you to close/delete this thread!!! ;)
Why DW...?
Its great viewing for sure.
Grab the popcorn, welly ;p
Don, re' "essay" crashing.... That's karma, buddy lol....
It's all gone viral, all of a sudden.
Thanks for the new forecast Ben:)