South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Tuesday 27th January)

Best Days: Most days should have fun small waves across the semi-exposed points of Far Northern NSW and SE Qld. Fri/Sat/Sun: large south swell for exposed spots in Northern NSW, but with a wide range in heights due to the swell direction. Expect very small surf in SE Qld.

Recap: Rapidly improving surf over the weekend as winds became more favourable and the swell slowly eased from the south-east. Wave heights reached a low point on Monday but have built from the SE today in response to a deepening trough across the central Tasman Sea. This is generating small peelers across the semi-exposed points of SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, although winds are out of the eastern quadrant (however, Snapper looks reasonably clean). 

This week (Jan 28 onwards)

No really change expected in the swell department on Wednesday.

This deepening trough currently doesn’t have a lot of strength within our swell window, but it is expected to muscle up over the coming days so we can expect a more prominent increase in size later in the week. For now expect small runners along the semi-exposed points of Far Northern NSW and SE Qld, with fresh and gusty S/SE winds likely to ruin the surf at exposed beaches. 

There are actually two fetches of interest associated with this trough - the S/SE fetch stretching from Tasmanian latitudes up to the southern Coral Sea, and a broader, but weaker E/NE fetch feeding into the trough from the South Pacific side.

The latter fetch probably won’t generate a great deal of size, but given the stronger S/SE component expected through the back half of the week, it’s worth noting as it’ll probably keep protected spots humming with some small lines (that otherwise might miss out due to directional deficiencies of the south swell).

So, as the S/SE fetch strengthens through Wednesday (off the Southern NSW coast), it’ll also continue its slow westward movement, which will ever so slightly push outside of SE Qld’s swell window (bummer!). 

In fact, by Thursday we’ll see a deep Tasman Low off the Far South Coast (roughly east of Bass Strait) and very strong winds are expected to develop around its core, with the low also expected to remain quite stationary. This is a very positive characteristic for the potential of a large, powerful groundswell.

The overall swell trend will be slowly upwards on Thursday - but still affected by fresh S/SE winds in most areas. Despite the swell muscling up a tad I’m concerned that the slight swing in the swell direction (a tad more south) may restrict wave heights north of Byron - so keep your expectations in check, SE Qld surfers. Otherwise, there should be windy options across the points south of the Byron.

As for Friday - it’s a simple matter of up, up up during the day. But the key is: when? 

We’re looking at an arrival across the Mid North Coast early morning, probably reaching the Far North Coast by early afternoon and then SE Qld from mid-afternoon onwards. The swell will have a lot of south its direction, with a large range in wave heights between beaches - easily 6ft+ or more at south facing spots in Northern NSW, but just ~4ft at most open beaches and ~2ft across protected spots. 

In SE Qld, we’ll see anywhere up to 3-4ft+ at (the handful of) exposed south swell magnets, but most of the regular spots (i.e. semi-exposed points) will be lucky to pull in 2ft sets - don’t expect anything at protected points like Noosa.

Anyway, if the model data changes throughout the next few days I’ll update my thoughts in the comments section below. But for now, Friday look like being quite a dynamic day, particular for Northern NSW. Let’s just hope the swell isn’t delayed, otherwise Queensland surfers may miss out on this pulse.

This weekend (Jan 31 - Feb 1)

Friday’s large south swell is expected to hold through much of Saturday, but in fact the low pressure system generating it is currently modelled to push even further inside the swell shadow of southern NSW later this week, which - despite the overall size and strength - could seriously restrict wave size along even the North Coast (and definitely into SE Qld).

Therefore, right now it’s too hard to have confidence in what will happen, because a slight eastward shift in the current model guidance could open up all kinds of new potential for the weekend. 

However with no other swell sources expected (at this stage), we can be confident on the overall trend, and that is: early peak Saturday, easing slowly through the afternoon and through Sunday. If anything, expect even a slightly wider variation in wave heights between exposed south facing spots and sheltered spots, but I’ll review this in more detail on Friday. 

Next week (Feb 2 onwards)

Nothing of major interest for next week - easing south swell for Monday (from the weekend), supplemented by some mid-week refracted southerly swell from a series of migratory fronts and lows well south of the Tasman Sea that probably won’t offer much away from the North Coast’s south swell magnets. 

A couple of cyclones are modelled to form out near Samoa and the Cook Islands later this week, but at this stage they don’t look like they’ll produce any worthwhile surf for Australia.

However, some of the models are anticipating a second E/SE fetch to develop NE of New Zealand over the weekend - linked in within the same broad trough of low pressure associated with the cyclones - and this could set up a small long range E/SE groundswell for mid next week.  

It also looks like we’ll see a return of the seasonal trades across the low Coral Sea early next week which should provide useful SE swell for Queensland surfers. So if the south swell doesn’t deliver north of the border (and I wouldn’t be holding my breath) then there are certainly some options in the long term. I’ll check all of this out in more detail in Friday’s notes.