South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 7th January)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri: fun but easing trade swell, best conditions in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW (early mornings). Late Sun/Mon: strong renewal of E'ly swell with probably good (light) winds. Tues onwards: chance for a strong (rare) NE swell in SE Qld. Plenty of decent E'ly swell on the cards for the second half of next week too.

Recap: Building combo of short range E/SE and mid-range E’ly swells with gusty SE winds (Tues) throughout SE Qld, but winds remaining E’ly in Northern NSW (generally light to moderate south of about Yamba). Wave heights came a little under expectectations on Tuesday but seemed to reach forecast estimations today (at least in SE Qld). Certainly a good round of surf across the semi-exposed points of this region anyway.

This week (Jan 8 - 9)

The rest of the week should see a fairly even trend in the surf department. We’re close to the top of the swell cycle of this initial trade energy, and a gradual easing is expected from Thursday into Friday and the start of the weekend. 

In similarity to the current energy, surf size will be biggest on the Sunny Coast's open beaches (between 3ft and very occasionally 5ft early Thursday) with slowly decreasing size with increasing southerly latitude (to perhaps 2-3ft+ across the Lower Mid North Coast). 

The abating swell trend throughout this period won’t really be noticeable at open beaches from hour to hour, but with winds expected to be cross-onshore (if not straight onshore) at exposed spots, you’ll have to tuck into a smaller, sheltered location - and this is where the easing trend will be more pronounced (i.e. Thursday will be bigger than Friday, which will be bigger than Saturday etc). So, make the most of Thursday if sheltered points are your thing.

As for the local airstream, we’ll see a weakening pressure gradient so consequently slightly lighter winds in general, possibly variable (even briefly SW) for a few hours early mornings in some areas.

Otherwise, as per the last few days Thursday’s synoptic direction will remain out of the SE across southern Queensland, tending E’ly in Far Northern NSW and NE across the Mid North Coast. 

On Friday we’ll see similar strengths in the northern regions but with a small counter-clockwise rotation as a trough approaches from Southern NSW. This will strengthen NE winds about the Mid North Coast during the day so expect difficult conditions away from protected northern corners (south of about Coffs). 

However for the most part the semi-exposed points of SE Qld and Northern NSW should have small fun waves both days.

This weekend (Jan 10-11)

The swell cycle is expected to bottom out on Saturday, but there’ll still be plenty of surf about the coast.

Local conditions will probably be similar to Friday with light variable winds tending E/SE throughout SE Qld and Northern NSW, but with fresher NE winds about the Mid North Coast. Expect 3ft+ waves on the Sunshine Coast's open beaches grading to 2ft+ across the Mid North Coast.

On Sunday, we’re likely to see a renewal of mid-range E’ly trade swell from a retrograding depression south of Fiji later this week. Unfortunately, the models have cooled on the possibilities from this system since Monday's notes, but I still think we’ll see some great waves from it.

At this stage I’m not 100% on the timing - it looks like it’ll probably push through around lunchtime - so expect small residual swells through Sunday morning, similar to Saturday, and with generally light variable winds and sea breezes.

However once this new swell kicks in we should see some decent sets for the latter part of the day, pushing 3-5ft on the Sunshine Coast, 3-4ft on the Gold Coast and then incrementally smaller surf southwards. With some luck there won’t be much wind (model guidance is currently in support of this, due to a slack pressure gradient) so Sunday’s currently on target for some great afternoon waves.

Next week (Jan 12 onwards)

Last Monday’s notes detailed a couple of possible dynamic scenarios on the cards for next week. 

Over the last two days, the model guidance has moved around a little and it seems we’re likely to see a mixed bag of both possibilities - the first being Sunday afternoon’s late afternoon push of E’ly swell (mentioned above) which should hold through Monday of a similar size, if not a shade bigger, with similar local winds in most regions.

Otherwise, the TC developments in the Coral Sea this weekend look to be, to put it lightly, rather explosive.

However, southward tracking systems are not always great for swell production, unless there’s a slightly S/SW bias in the storm track, so for now the initial stages of this system are hard to be confident in (re: surf potential). 

Additionally, there have been some major revisions of projected storm tracks/TC intensities with each recent successive model update, and I don’t think we’ll be able to lock anything in firmly for a few days yet. Nevertheless, all signs are still very positive for some dynamic surf next week.

Right now my main area of interest is for SE Qld and the possibility of a significant NE groundswell event. It’s worth pointing out that long period swells from this direction are extremely rare, which means that - due to a lack of previous swell templates to work off - the confidence levels are reduced. 

At the present time most computer models seem to agree that by later this week or early in the weekend, we’ll have two systems (both possibly TCs) in the Northern Coral Sea - one near the Solomon Islands and the other embedded in a vigorous monsoon pattern crossing Cape York Peninsula.

It’s likely that we’ll see a southward trajectory from at least one of these systems over the following days but from there on, we've got a wide range of synoptic possibilities.

However some of the modelled characteristics of the Solomons system during its early stages is quite impressive - potentially 40-50kts of N/NE winds on its eastern flank, aimed somewhat within SE Qld’s NE swell window, with core wind speeds of 60kts+ (see chart below).

Whilst its way to early to start pinning down possibilities from here, early indications suggest a possible N/NE groundswell arriving around Tuesday or Wednesday (give or take), which will be sitting on top of an active, pre-existing E’ly swell (itself could still be worthy of 3-5ft at some exposed spots).

Obviously, many parts of the Northern NSW coast would be sheltered from a N/NE swell so we'll really need to see some satellite wind observations - once the cyclone(s) form - before starting to estimate its surf potential south of Byron Bay.

Beyond Tues/Wed there is reasonable confidence that we’ll see further activity in our swell window that’d provide strong E’ly swell through the second half of the week. But there’s not much use in debating specifics until we get closer to the evolution of these cyclones.

So for now, it’s worth penciling in much of next week for some flexi time - and (local winds pending) if we do end up seeing a reasonable NE groundswell, it’ll be worth considering sniffing out some of those coastlines that rarely experience swells from this direction. More on this in Friday’s update.