South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 2nd January)

Best Days: Entire period: plenty of fun trade swell, becoming quite solid in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW from Tuesday onwards. 

Recap: Although there’s been plenty of fun waves around the last few days (mix of E’ly and S’ly swells), local onshore winds have been the spoiler. Mornings have had brief windows of lighter winds.

This weekend (Jan 3-4)

*forecast notes will be brief this week*

A fairly straightforward forecast for the weekend. We’ve got strengthening trades in the lower Coral Sea right now, and they’re building easterly swells that’ll provide plenty of surf through the weekend. 

Wave heights will be biggest on the Sunshine Coast (3-4ft+), with the Gold Coast expected to see 2-3ft+ surf, and smaller waves with increasing southerly latitude.

However, exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW will see a small signal of very inconsistent south swell, probably biggest through Sunday in the 2ft+ range. 

As for local winds - they’re expected to be onshore (E’ly across SE Qld, E/NE across Northern NSW and NE across the Mid North Coast) however we should see periods of light winds in the mornings. 

So in general expect plenty of workable waves at most open beaches; quality won’t be super high but the east swell should be very consistent and the beach breaks are likely to deliver the best results. Tuck into a northern corner if you can, especially in the south (i.e. Mid North Coast) where local NE winds are expected to be strongest.

Next week (Jan 5 onwards)

There’s really only one region worth discussing for the long term - a broad strengthening trade flow our eastern swell window; a regional staple at this time of year. 

This pattern is expected to remain anchored in place from the western Coral Sea through to the South West Pacific Ocean for most of next week and beyond. 

Although the winds within this fetch are not expected to become overly strong - yet - its sheer length and breadth (see chart below) will result in an very good, sustained trade swell for the entire East Coast. 

At this stage Monday is expected to see similar surf as per the weekend, with synoptic winds veering a little more clockwise (i.e. from the E to the E/SE in SE Qld) as the primary fetch south of New Caledonia slowly retrogrades, pushing closer to the coast (and correspondingly increases local wind speeds through the middle of the week). 

Tuesday will then herald a stronger upwards phase of trade swell, and once this energy reaches a peak late afternoon and into early Wednesday, it's then expected to ebb and flow of a similar magnitude until the weekend. 

The Sunshine Coast should see solid 4-6ft surf at open beaches during this period (although they are likely to be wind affected), with protected points - including Noosa - expected to see smaller, but cleaner waves.

The Gold Coast won’t be quite as big as the Sunshine Coast but should still manage 3-5ft waves across open beaches and semi-exposed points. South of Byron, wave heights will become incrementally smaller with increasing southerly latitude.

The only negative for next week will be the local winds, which will probably have too much east than is preferable - but this just means you’ll have to sniff out somewhere smaller and more protected. 

At this stage next weekend will probably see strong but easing surf from this source, however there’s also a suggestion that we could see a tropical depression in the Fijian region intensify within the back half of this broader trade flow later next week, which could result in a renewal of strong E’ly groundswell later next weekend or early in the following week (sometime around Jan 11/12).

The ‘stronger’ swell component is likely to be the result of longer swell periods, associated with higher core wind speeds within the intensifying depression (if it all comes off as is currently expected). I’ll have more details on this on Monday. Until then enjoy your weekend!