South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 31st October)

Best Days: Sat: Small long period south swell at protected northern corners in Northern NSW (gusty N/NE winds will make things tricky elsewhere). Sun: fun leftover NE swell inside southern corners and possibly up in SE Qld, and clean under a S'ly breeze. Mon/Tues: strong south swell at south facing beaches in Northern NSW but with tricky winds on Mon; better Tues as the swell eases.

Recap: Thursday threw a few curveballs our way. The new southerly swell that started to appear late Wednesday (in Northern NSW) backed off early morning but then rebuilt throughout the day, offering very nice waves at protected northern corners as the nor’easter developed. Most interestingly, this acute southerly swell actually produced some reasonable waves across the Gold Coast into the afternoon (also thanks in part to a weakening NE airstream), with sets pushing 2-3ft at times - which is a very rare occurrence for long range swells of this origin - especially considering that it wasn’t massive in Northern NSW, in fact some south facing beaches across the Mid North Coast barely reached 3ft. The Sunny Coast picked up some small waves form this source too, but not quite as much as the Goldy. Today has seen smaller residual swells across all coasts with freshening NE winds again. The leading edge of a long period south swell should be nosing into the Mid North Coast at the moment (it arrived in Sydney mid-afternoon).

This weekend (Nov 1-2)

Local winds will heavily dictate the weekend’s surfability. Strengthening N’ly winds on Saturday are expected to reach gale force through the afternoon, and in doing so will whip up a solid short range NE swell for the Northern NSW coast. 

It’ll be bigger in southern regions, with a peak expected throughout the afternoon (3-5ft across NE facing beaches of the Mid North Coast), with smaller 2-3ft surf in the Far North and probably just a foot or two across SE Qld. We’ll also see some inconsistent S’ly swell at exposed south facing beaches with occasional sets to 3ft across Northern NSW. There will be long waits for 'em though.

However, the broader northerly airstream will limit options away from (the small handful of) protected northern corners that’ll be able to handle these winds (and should also be picking up the infrequent S’ly groundswell). So keep your expectations generally low, especially in SE Qld where it’ll be small and very wind affected.

Sunday looks much better with a fresh southerly change due into the Mid North Coast in the early hours of the morning, before reaching the Far North Coast around dawn and then the Gold Coast early-mid morning. The good news is that the latest model data has nudged the northern extent of the southerly change up to the Sunshine Coast (but only just!), probably late morning or lunchtime on Sunday - so we’ll eventually see some respite from the N’ly breeze in this region.

Surf wise on Sunday, the Northern NSW coast will consist of a peaky mix of easing NE and building S’ly windswells, probably around 3ft of each - although with the NE swell biggest in the morning and the S’ly swell biggest in the afternoon, at their respective north or south facing beaches.

Winds will however be fresh S’ly tending S/SE, so protected southern corners will offer the best waves - aim for an early paddle before the NE swell vanishes throughout the day.

In SE Qld, we won’t see quite as much size in the NE swell on Sunday but there should be a few 1-2ft+ sets early morning at exposed beaches on the Gold and Tweed Coasts, with smaller surf on the Sunny Coast. Still, there should be small peaky options across the open beaches around the wind change.

Next week (Nov 3-7)

A strong front/low combo tracking below Tasmania is expected to maintain plenty of south swell through the start of next week. Monday should in fact see the biggest waves of this cycle, up to 3-5ft across south facing beaches in Northern NSW through the afternoon, before easing slowly into Tuesday.

We’ll see much less of this southerly swell in SE Qld, however a building ridge across the southern Coral Sea will generate some short range SE swell for the first half of the new week, nothing huge but possibly 2-3ft at exposed beaches on Monday and maybe Tuesday if we're lucky. Fresh SE winds will limit the best waves to the semi-exposed points across this region, and similar conditions across Northern NSW (at least on Monday) will confine the best waves south of Byron to protected southern corners. Tuesday looks better in Northern NSW with early light winds in Northern NSW ahead of a sea breeze. 

From Wednesday onwards we’re really just looking at small residual swells as a weak pressure pattern dominates the Tasman Sea. The afternoon NE regime is due into the Mid North Coast on Wednesday, but the Far Northern NSW and SE Qld coasts may still be under the influence of the (weakening) ridge at this time, resulting in amore E/SE flow. However through Thursday and Friday most locations will see NE winds dominating from late morning/lunchtime onwards, and will small surf on offer you’ll have to work around the swell magnets.  

Longer term (Nov 8 onwards)

Nothing standing out at this early stage. If anything, it appears that a developing high pressure system in the Tasman Sea will allow the trades to start forming across our far eastern swell window, so I’ll be keeping an eye on this neck of the woods for potential activity. But at the present time there’s not much to speak of. More on the longer term outlook on Monday.