South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 24th October)

Best Days: Saturday lunch/afternoon and Sunday morning are looking pretty fun for the Lower Mid North Coast. Northerly winds look like they'll ruin the surf elsewhere. Fun S'ly swell due Tues and then late Wed/Thurs for exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW.

Recap: Small but persistent east swell, marred by mainly northerly winds. 

This weekend (Oct 25-26)

No major changes to the weekend forecast from my end.

We’ve got a strengthening N’ly fetch off the coast that’ll whip up some short range energy for Saturday. However, the position of the fetch will result in the Lower Mid North Coast seeing the most size (3-4ft+) with smaller waves along the North Coast (2-3ft) and smaller surf again in SE Qld (1-2ft).

In SE Qld and across the Far Northern NSW coast, these northerly winds will wipe out local conditions for most of the weekend. So, keep your expectations very low in this neck of the woods. However, south of about Coffs Harbour is a different story.

A shallow southerly change is expected to nudge the Lower Mid North Coast after lunch on Saturday, with variable winds preceding it by a few hours. However it doesn’t look like the change will penetrate much further north than about Forster or (at a stretch) Port Macquarie.

So although Saturday morning may be wind affected early on, conditions should improve across the Mid North Coast from about lunchtime (especially in the far southern region) with the afternoon producing fun waves.  

On Sunday, we’ll see a steady short range N/NE swell across the coast, probably of a similar size as per Saturday in the Mid North Coast, but with a little more size in the Far North and SE Qld regions. Southerly winds should push north up to about Coffs Harbour or possibly even Yamba if we’re lucky, so there should be plenty of clean options about the southern corners. 

However, it’s hard to have any confidence in there being favourable winds north of Yamba. I certainly wouldn’t rule it out (these complex troughy periods are well known for wide variations in winds across small regions) but if you were basing a day trip on the raw model data, I’d be very hesitant to commit any significant highway miles in search of quality waves. 

Next week (Oct 27-31)

Next week looks really tricky, both for swell and local conditions.

A persistent troughy pattern across the East Coast will create a wide range in winds - Monday for example may see continuing northerlies about the SE Qld and Far Northern NSW regions, but the Mid North Coast may again be blessed with a period of light and variable winds (freshening nor'easters are due in the afternoon though, as a southerly chnge aproaches). 

And to add insult to injury, the northern northerly flow should maintain a peaky north swell for exposed north facing beaches across the Mid North Coast (that’s five instances of the word ‘north’ right then and there in one sentence, did ya see?). It certainly won’t be epic but there should be something to ride for those with a flexible timetable and a bunch of enthusiasm.

Otherwise, the pendulum will swing to the south for the rest of the week. A shallow, gusty southerly change is due overnight Monday across the North Coast, and while the change itself won’t be much of a swell producer, a strong W/SW fetch existing eastern Bass Strait should supply a small south swell for exposed south facing beaches (in Northern NSW) on Tuesday. 

At this stage inconsistent 3ft+ sets are possible but they’ll be exclusive to the better performing swell magnets, with very small waves on offer elsewhere.

From Wednesday onwards, the southern Tasman will fall under the influence of a vigorous frontal passage as a Long Wave Trough tracks across the south-eastern corner of the continent. This will drive a sustained period of SW gales across the Tasman region, and consequently we’ll see a couple of strong south swells push up along the southern NSW coast.

The first is due in through Wednesday afternoon in the Mid North, arriving overnight in the Far North and peaking on Thursday morning. A second, slightly stronger swell due Thursday afternoon, and we should see south facing beaches around 3-4ft+ at the height of the activity.

Unfortunately, these south swells almost never perform for SE Qld so expect small residual activity north of Byron Bay.

Long term (Nov 1 onwards)

Currently long range models suggest our southern swell window will remain the dominant region into next weekend and beyond, which should lead to a continual supply of south swell for Northern NSW through into the following week.