South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 13th October)

Best Days: Tuesday: good, clean NE swell in the Lower Mid North (smaller on the North Coast and in SE Qld, with less favourable winds). Wednesday: building S'ly swell peaking late with generally good winds (best on the North Coast). Still very small in SE Qld away from the swell magnets. Thursday: good condtions early with an early peak in S'ly swell (again, very small in SE Qld away from the swell magnets). Friday: small clean residual swell at exposed beaches in Northern NSW.

Recap: Small surf over the weekend with persistent northerly winds. Building NE windswell today but mainly in the south (i.e. Lower Mid North Coast) due to the position and length of the associated fetch. Very little increase as yet north of about Yamba.

This week (Oct 14-17 onwards)

The surf outlook is very dynamic for the next few days. An East Coast Low is modelled to form in the far south-western Tasman Sea overnight, and will intensify through Tuesday, driving gale to storm force S/SE winds into much of the southern NSW coast. 

Somewhat unrelated to the ECL, a southerly change is moving northwards along the NSW right now and is due to reach the Lower Mid North Coast in the early hours of Tuesday morning, but probably won't progress much further north than there. This change won't penetrate very far out into the Tasman Sea and consequently won't generate much, if any new swell for the region. 

However it'll disrupt the existing coastal northerly airstream, creating moderate W'ly winds across the Lower Mid North Coast for most of Tuesday.  Winds will tend more NW across the North Coast but may remain more N'ly in direction from about Byron Bay up into the SE Qld region.

The upshot of this is that we're looking at a fun day of NE windswell in the Lower Mid North, with good winds and peaky 3-4ft surf at exposed NE swell magnets. Wave heights will become smaller with increasing northerly latitude, probably 2ft to maybe 3ft through to the border and probably a little smaller than that (1.5-2ft) at exposed beaches in SE Qld. However the N'ly airstream will probably make life very difficult at those beaches north of the border actually picking up the swell.

A gusty W'ly change is due across all regions late Tuesday afternoon - and once it arrives we'll see a rapid improvement on the surface - but I wouldn't hold your breath for it to push through before 5pm.

So, on to Wednesday. By this time the ECL will have delivered gale to storm force S/SE winds across southern NSW (and a very large short range swell) however this weather system is expected to concentrate most of its energy into the one area. And being positioned so close to the coast, we'll see a much smaller percentage of size push northwards.

This will begin with a straight southerly swell building throughout Wednesday that should reach 6ft+ at most south facing beaches south of Byron Bay, with possibly larger waves in the Lower Mid North Coast (due to its closer proximity to the core fetch). However much smaller surf is expected at beaches not open to the south. A peak in size is expected through the afternoon and winds will generally remain moderate W/SW north of Coffs Harbour, with strong to gale force SW winds expected south from Coffs to Seal Rocks (that'll probably make things tricky).

In SE Qld, we'll mainly see a tiny fraction of residual NE swell and building S'ly swell during Wednesday, due to the poor alignment of the low and fetch. An afternoon peak is also expected north of the border but most beaches will be lucky to see 1-2ft (however, the region's handful of south swell magnets should pick up occasional 3-4ft sets late in the day and winds should be generally good for these locations).

Wednesday's late peak should then hold into early Thursday morning before easing during the day. Conditions are looking really good for the early session with early light off shores ahead of an afternoon sea breeze. Size will ease from lunchtime onwards, if not earlier.

Smaller, steadily easing surf and similarly light/variable wind patterns are expected for Friday. By this time the south swell will be very small across SE Qld but we'll also start to see a small, inconsistent E'ly swell arrive throughout the day that should maintain occasional 1-2ft sets at exposed beaches. 

This weekend (Oct 18-19)

Nothing major on the cards for the weekend at this stage. A weak southerly change is due into the Northern NSW coast on Saturday morning (without any major strength, and probably little swell too) and a ridge may develop across the Qld coast, both of which will dictate local winds.  

In addition to general small residual swells, we'll also see a small E'ly swell perk up throughout the weekend, generated by a slowly developing E'ly fetch north of New Zealand during the second half of this week - however no great size is expected from it (maybe some inconsistent 2ft+ sets at exposed beaches, but very slow). 

So in general, it's just another weekend with small average waves about the region.

Long term (Oct 20 onwards)

No major patterns on the long term charts at this stage. We've got some trade activity that may contribute varying degrees of small+ east swell through next week but nothing to get excited about; generally quite standard for this time of year. Let's see how the numbers are stacking up on Wednesday.