Southeast Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 9th May)

Best Days: Sat: decent S/SE swell in Northern NSW with good winds across the Mid North Coast (probably OK early morning in the Far North, and also in SE Qld - but it'll be much smaller north of the border). Sun: steadily easing swell with good winds in most regions.

Recap: Persistent southerly swells for the last few days, with a strong new S/SE pulse pushing into the lower Mid North late Thursday and then filling in across remaining regions today. Wave heights came in under size expectations across some regions, which is a little surprising given the system that generated the swell was verified quite well via satellite mid-week. Surfcam observations from our cam at The Pass this afternoon suggests that there may be a little more size around than what was observed this morning, although this hasn’t been verified yet. 

This weekend (May 10-11)

Today’s S/SE swell should maintain a similar size into Saturday morning before easing during the afternoon and further into Sunday. Exposed beaches in Northern NSW are likely fare the best with wave heights in and around the the 3-4ft+ range for the early session, however there is a risk of a lingering SE breeze in the Far North and throughout SE Qld at times. That being said, an early period of SW winds are likely in many areas for a few hours after dawn.

In SE Qld, surf size will be much smaller (inconsistent 2ft at most beaches, possibly 3ft at exposed south facing beaches), and with the risk of a SE’er you’ll have to surf early for the best waves.

To the south of about Ballina, a building ridge of high pressure will create light variable winds ahead of an afternoon northerly tendency. So, the Mid North Coast is on track for a pretty good day of beach breaks, you may just have to head into those sheltered northern corners after lunch if the northerly develops some muscle (which it probably won’t).

Much smaller surf is expected Sunday with generally light variable winds swinging NW during the morning. A late shallow S’ly change may impact the Lower Mid North Coast but for the most part it’ll be clean with small beachies your only option across the entire region.

Next week (May 12-16 onwards)

Next week is a tricky call right now. Model guidance from Monday onwards generally has a similar broadscale synoptic pattern with a stalling trough setting up camp in the western Tasman, but the specifics are very important due to the close proximity to the coast. 

Our surf forecast graph is based around the GFS model and its most recent solution has the trough further north-east (i.e. in the central/northern Tasman) than previous model runs had. However, future model runs may rein this back closer to the southern/central NSW coast, which would be more inline with the other model output (EC and ACCESS). 

Either way, the Mid North Coast should see a building low quality short range S’ly tending SE swell from this system from Monday through Tuesday and possibly holding into Wednesday. Set waves may reach the 3ft+ range at exposed beaches at the height of the swell (probably late Tuesday) but winds won’t be friendly so it’s not worth working around at this stage.

The North Coast may pick up a similar degree of energy from this fetch but again, quality won’t be high and with gusty S’ly winds, exposed south facing beaches (which will be biggest) will also be choppy. Smaller surf would be expected in SE Qld due to the swell direction and low period, however winds would be a little more favourable. Anyway, let’s check back on Monday to see how the models are handling the situation. 

The latest developments around this trough have also thrown a spanner into the works regarding the previous suggestion for a restrengthening of the trades south of New Caledonia, which was hoped to bring some mid-range easterly swell to the Gold and Sunshine Coasts later next week. It’s still a possibility but right now the model guidance is too shaky to make a call on. So keep it pencilled in for the second half of next week but don’t get your hopes up.

Elsewhere, we’re also looking at the arrival of a small long period SE groundswell around Wednesday, generated from a rare part of our swell window. A deep Southern Ocean low well to the S/SE of New Zealand today is expected to stall and form a small but intense band of storm force SE winds off the ice shelf, aimed briefly at the Australian East Coast. The small fetch length, short duration and large travel distance will probably restrict wave heights to just a couple of feet, but if you see some long period (~16 second) from the SE at the buoys during this time, you’ll know where it came from.

See you all on Monday!