South Australian forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday February 21st)

Best Days: South Coast this morning and tomorrow, Monday Mid Coast, both coasts Tuesday, both coasts Friday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small-mod sized S/SW swell for Fri PM and Sat AM, easing into the evening and further Sun
• Moderate N/NE winds Sat AM, shifting N/NW into the early PM and then W/NW later
• Moderate + sized mix of W/SW swells building Sun PM, peaking Mon, then easing
• W/NW tending fresh W/SW-SW winds down South Sun, moderate SE tending fresh S/SE-S on the Mid Mon (S/SE down South)
• Easing swell Tue with E/NE-NE winds down South in the AM, E/NE on the Mid
• Smaller Wed with early N tending W/SW-SW winds later AM
• Building mid-period W/SW-SW swell later week with variable morning winds

Recap

Wednesday’s small swell inside the gulf backed off to a tiny 1-1.5ft yesterday while the South Coast continued to offer size and OK conditions for the keen under cross-shore winds.

This morning the swell has held in at 3ft across the South Coast with improving conditions that were lumpy early and the Mid Coast is coming in at 1ft.

This week and weekend (Feb 22 - 28)

Tomorrow is still the pick of the period for the South Coast as we see a fun pulse of reinforcing mid-period S/SW swell arriving overnight, peaking tomorrow morning.

The source of this and the last couple of days swell has been persistent, drawn out fetches of W’ly winds on the polar shelf.

Middleton is expected to hold 3ft on the sets tomorrow morning (tiny Mid Coast), with chunky options on the magnets and a moderate N/NE breeze will shift N/NW into the afternoon and then tend more W/NW towards the evening. This should create a near full day of great surf, with the swell easing back later in the day, down from a smaller 2ft or so Sunday morning.

We’re now expected to see morning W/NW winds on Sunday, creating clean conditions in protected spots before freshening W/SW winds kick in later morning, S/SW into the afternoon.

This change in winds will be linked to a strong but weakening mid-latitude low moving in from the west, with it due to deliver a late increase in W/SW swell, peaking Monday.

The low is currently forming south of Western Australia, and core wind speeds have been downgraded a little since Wednesday.

We’re expected to see strong to gale-force W/SW winds generated through our western swell window from this afternoon (south of Western Australia) through tomorrow as it moves through the Bight, moving across us Sunday in a weakened form.

A moderate + sized W/SW swell is still due to build later Sunday to 2-3ft on the Mid Coast, holding 3ft on the favourable parts of the tide Monday with the South Coast building later Sunday and peaking Monday to 4-6ft across Middleton. 

The Mid Coast will offer the best waves on Monday as high pressure moves in from the west, shifting winds SE for the morning (S/SE down South), freshening from the S-S/SE through the day, improving Tuesday down South under an E/NE-NE breeze as the swell drops quickly from 3-4ft. The Mid Coast will also be clean and fading from a fun 2ft.

The surf looks to reach a low point on Wednesday under early, light offshore winds, while an approaching trough will bring a shallow W/SW-SW change later morning.

This change will be associated with the next incoming frontal progression, with moderate levels of mid-period SW swell due later week with possible favourable morning winds. The Mid Coast should see a little wave off this progression, while we may see a stronger increase in swell from a more significant low forming under the country next weekend. More on this Monday, have a great weekend!