South Australian forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday February 19th)

Best Days: South Coast tomorrow morning but more so Friday morning and Saturday, Mid Coast Monday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing mix of swells tomorrow with mod-fresh E/NE tending S/SE winds
• Small-mod sized S/SW swell for Fri PM and Sat AM, easing into the evening and further Sun
• Moderate N/NE-NE winds Fri AM, shifting E/SE-SE into the PM
• Mod-fresh N/NE winds Sat AM, shifting N/NW and strengthening a little into the early PM, then NW-W/NW later
• Mod-large mix of W/SW swells building Sun PM, peaking Mon AM, then easing
• Gusty W/SW-SW winds Sun, lighter at times during the AM and possibly tending W/NW down South
• S/SE-SE winds Mon AM, strengthening from the S/SE into the PM

Recap

Yesterday was a lay day across both coasts while this morning we’ve got a lift in W/SW groundswell and better SW energy that’s providing infrequent 1.5ft waves on the Mid Coast with 3-4ft sets down South. Early onshore winds swung more easterly down South creating better than expected, improving conditions.

This week and weekend (Feb 20 - 23)

Today’s mix of swells will ease into tomorrow and further Friday across the state, but some fun, mid-period S/SW swell is due into Friday afternoon and Saturday morning (3ft Middleton), generated by a healthy and elongated fetch of mostly strong W/NW-W winds moving along the polar shelf the last couple of days.

Winds look similar to this morning down South, tending E/NE through the morning creating OK conditions with easing sets from 3ft while the Mid Coast is only due to be 1ft or so.

Friday and Saturday are the pick though with a N/NE-NE offshore on the former during the morning ahead of E/SE tending S/SE sea breezes, with Saturday seeing favourable N/NE-NE winds, freshening ahead of a N/NW change into the early afternoon, shifting more W/NW-NW into the evening.

This change will be linked with a strong mid-latitude low moving in from the west.

The low will form under Western Australia on Friday, with a fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW-SW winds being projected through our western swell window as it moves slowly east on Saturday, then under us Sunday, more through our south-western swell window.

A moderate to large sized mix of mid-period W/SW swell and groundswell are due to build Sunday afternoon/evening to 2ft+ on the Mid Coast with a late increase in size down South, peaking Monday to 3ft across the Mid Coast and 5-6ft down South.

Winds on Sunday will be average and strong out of the W/SW, easing slightly during the day and possibly tending W/NW for a period down South (but with no size), freshening out of the W/SW-SW again into the afternoon.

Monday is the pick with a S/SE-SE offshore due on the Mid Coast, S/SW-S down South, strengthening from the S/SE into the afternoon.

The swell will ease into the middle of the week as conditions improve down South, with a possible fun new swell due later week. More on this Friday.