South Australian forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday February 14th)

Best Days: Monday morning South Coast, possibly next Saturday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Late kick in S/SW swell today down South but with strengthening S/SW winds
• Easing W/SW swell tomorrow on the Mid with strong S/SW-S winds, tending S/SE later
• Moderate sized mix of low quality S/SW swells building tomorrow, easing Sun
• Lighter E/NE winds into Sun AM ahead of S/SE sea breezes
• Easing S'ly swell Mon with NE tending E/SE-SE winds
• Late increase in tiny, inconsistent W/SW groundswell Tue, peaking Wed
• Moderate sized SW groundswell Wed
• Mod-fresh SE tending stronger S/SE winds Tue/Wed
• Smaller surf Thu with stronger SE tending S/SE winds

Recap

Yesterday was a lay day with tiny surf and slowly increasing onshore winds which kick up a building windswell on the Mid Coast.

Winds have backed off a little this morning with slightly cleaner conditions on the Mid Coast, but otherwise bumpy, raw 2-3ft surf while the South Coast is small and bumpy.

A new spike of S/SW swell from the backside of the low is due this afternoon down South but with strengthening S/SW winds.

This weekend and next week (Feb 15 - 21)

We’ve got a generally poor weekend of surfing ahead with strong onshore winds but some sizey swell due across the South Coast. Sunday will start to improve but it’ll be very tricky to work around. More below.

This afternoon’s and tomorrow’s onshore blow will be thanks to an elongated polar front projecting up behind the low moving through yesterday and today, with it due to bring strong S/SW tending S winds tomorrow (S/SE later on the Mid).

The front will clear east on Sunday and with this winds are due to back off quickly and even tend light E/NE for a period on the South Coast but with the low period swell and all day onshore winds tomorrow, the surf will be very lumpy and raw.

Size wise, the South Coast should build to 4-5ft tomorrow and ease from a similar size on Sunday, with the Mid Coast seeing easing levels of W/SW swell from 1-2ft on the favourable parts of the tide tomorrow, tiny Sunday. 

Monday looks like the best chance for a surf down South as winds swing NE through the morning along with moderate levels of easing mid-period S/SW swell back from 3ft to occasionally 4ft across Middleton early, smaller into the afternoon. Sea breezes are due into the early afternoon so try and surf before then.

Looking at Tuesday/Wednesday and a mix of new W/SW and SW groundswell are due but the sizes and timings have changed a little.

The source of these swells will be a broad low forming north-east of the Heard Island region today, with the catalyst being Severe Tropical Cyclone Vince drifting south into the westerly storm track.

The structure and intensity of the low have changed and not for the better, with most of the swell being aimed more north, towards Indonesia and with less size. The westerly component of the swell now looks much smaller with the Mid Coast unlikely to top 1.5ft later Tuesday and Wednesday.

For the South Coast, as the low tracks east-southeast along the polar shelf on the weekend, a better aligned fetch  of SW gales should produce a more noticeable SW groundswell that’s due later Tuesday, peaking Wednesday morning.

Middleton looks to come in at 3-4ft but the main issue will be the local winds with moderate to fresh SE tending stronger S/SE winds due both Tuesday/Wednesday and then stronger SE-S/SE on Thursday as it eases.

Cleaner conditions are likely later week and more so next Saturday with some fun swell likely, more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!