South Australian forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday January 15th)

Best Days: Early tomorrow and later tomorrow Mid Coast, Friday morning Mid Coast, South Coast Saturday, Sunday and Monday morning, Mid Coast Sunday and Monday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate + sized mid-period W/SW swell tomorrow, easing Fri and Sat
• Moderate to fresh S/SW winds tomorrow, S/SE early and late on the Mid Coast
• SE winds Fri, strengthening from the S/SE through the day
• Smaller Sat with NE tending S/SE winds
• Moderate + sized mix of W/SW swells building later Sat, better Sun and strongest late, holding Mon
• Light variable winds ahead of sea breezes Sun, tending S/SE-SE late on the Mid
• Variable winds Mon AM, shifting S/SW through the day and freshening
• Easing swell Tue with strong S winds

Recap

The Mid Coast eased back to the tiny 1-1.5ft yesterday with morning offshores, workable into the afternoon but bumpy. The South Coast was also smaller but OK off Middleton for the keen.

Today a trough has brought strengthening onshore winds which will kick up some poor localised windswell mixed in with some strong, long-range W/SW groundswell across both coasts.

This week and next (Jan 16 - 24)

Today’s change will be linked to a fast moving, weakening trough pushing east and with this the localised windswell will back off through tomorrow along with the peak in inconsistent W/SW groundswell and mid-period energy (discussed Monday).

The Mid Coast should come in around 2ft+ on the favourable parts of the tide, easing back to 1-2ft on Friday with the South Coast offering 3ft waves off Middleton, smaller Friday.

Local winds look generally S/SW and moderate to fresh in nature tomorrow, though the Mid Coast should see early and late S/SE breezes. There’s a very slim chance of lighter W’ly winds at dawn around Victor harbor but it’s not worth chasing.

Friday will be cleaner across the Mid Coast as winds shift more SE, only strengthening out of the S/SE into the afternoon. With these winds the South Coast will remain poor.

The weekend should provide better options for a surf down South with Saturday now expected to see a morning NE breeze but with smaller, fading 2ft sets across Middleton, tiny on the Mid Coast.

Now later Saturday but more so Sunday/Monday, our long-range W/SW groundswell is due to start filling in, generated by a great, slow moving frontal progression that’s currently moving across the Heard Island region, generating various fetches of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds.

The progression will ease over the coming days while projecting more north towards Western Australia and through our western swell window, with a moderate + sized W/SW groundswell expected.

The Mid Coast should offer 2ft surf into Sunday with 3ft sets likely later and through Monday on the favourable parts of the tide, while the South Coast looks to peak around 3-4ft off Middleton but inconsistent.

Local winds on Sunday morning look variable favouring both coasts, giving into sea breezes before tending back S/SE-SE on dark across the Mid Coast, variable again on Monday morning before sea breezes kick back in again.

A trough will bring a stronger S’ly change on Tuesday that will persist Wednesday as the groundswell eases.

The outlook thereafter looks slow so make the most of the coming run of W/SW groundswell.