South Australian Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday November 18th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Average waves for the next few days down south
• Possible small leftovers on the Mid early Tuesday, but not much
• Friday the pick of the forecast period with winds swinging from the NE to the N, favouring the South Coast
• Potentially OK waves at Victor on the weekend
• No major swells on tap for next week at this stage

Recap

Victor Harbor offered fun waves on Saturday with freshening offshore winds and easing 2-3ft waves across the Middleton stretch that became a lot smaller by lunchtime. A late onshore change then persisted through Sunday as surf size slowly built from a small starting point. Today’s seen strong 4-6ft surf but with poor conditions under fresh onshore winds. As for the Mid Coast, Saturday was tiny and Sunday morning offered only a small bumpy windswell, but surf size built into the afternoon with solid 3-5ft waves across most spots and 2-3ft sets across metro beaches under gusty onshore winds. Surf size eased to 2-3ft this morning and conditions have cleaned up quickly with decent surf available until about lunchtime when the southerly picked up again.

Metro beaches offering workable waves Sunday afternoon

Fun surf on the Mid Coast this morning

This week (Nov 19 - 22)

A reinforcing S/SW swell from a polar low (trailing the system that generated today’s waves) will build across the South Coast into Tuesday, but I’m not expecting any major size compared to what’s easing right now. 

As it is, winds will freshen from the SE through the afternoon and surface conditions will deteriorate rapidly. Early morning should offer a reasonable window of light variable winds but given today’s fresh onshores, it’s unlikely to improve a great deal on the surface. So keep your expectations low. 

Further easing size is expected into Wednesday with persisting SE breezes. 

Along the Mid Coast, Tues/Wed’s winds will be favourable through the mornings but surf size will slowly abate. Tuesday should see some 1-2ft leftovers at the reefs from time to time but it’ll be a dwindling resource and the early high tide won’t help much either. Expect this swell to be mostly gone by Wednesday. 

Thursday is where things get a little more interesting.

A new long range SW groundswell from a deep polar low currently below West Oz will build during the day - though it probably won’t be in the water at first light. By late afternoon, the South Coast should push somewhere into the 3-4ft range at Middleton, maybe bigger at the regional swell magnets though it’ll be terribly inconsistent.

Early morning winds should swing to the E/NE though again, leftover lumpiness is likely thanks to Wednesday’s breeze - and the afternoon’s kick in size will probably be accompanied by a sea breeze.

Therefore, Friday is the pick of the week as we’ll be around to a light N/NE breeze thanks to a weak trough of low pressure to the west. Wave heights will slowly ease through the day but early morning should see most of the peak expected late Thursday.

The Mid Coast will see only small waves from this swell on Thursday afternoon and Friday, probably just enough for beginners and/or enthusiastic longboarders, but it won’t be worth too much attention (there’ll be more south in the swell direction than is ideal for the gulf). 

This weekend (Nov 23 - 34)

Local winds look tricky this weekend as the trough slowly moves over the state.

This is expected to bring about a southerly change at some point, current modelling is tipping late Saturday though I’d expect the timeline to shift around over the next couple of days. 

Fortunately, ahead of the change we’ll see offshore winds from the north, so Saturday morning is looking like a great option for Victor with easing surf from Friday, probably 2-3ft easing to 2ft through the day. I’m not expecting much action on the MId, unfortunately.

Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday.

Next week (Nov 25 onwards)

A small sideband swell from a polar low is due next Monday but no major size is expected as the low is not expected to line up particularly well within our swell window. It should however keep the South Coast active with fun waves (local winds pending). 

Otherwise, we’ve got a bit of a blocking pattern setting up camp and therefore the rest of next week looks slightly inactive through the South Oz swell window. This doesn’t necessarily mean there won’t be good waves to find, however it does suggest you’ll need to work around local winds to plan your Victor missions, as the Mid Coast will probably be very small most days.

More on this in Wednesday’s update.