South Oz Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday November 15th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun beachies down south Saturday morning with freshening NE winds and easing swells
• Building stormy on the Mid on Sunday (small early, biggest late arvo), maybe some small metro beaches too
• Strong surf down south Monday with easing onshore winds
• Fun surf on the Mid on Monday with easing onshores and lumpy but improving surf
• Easing surf Tues/Wed with light winds tending SE and freshening
• Another decent groundswell Thurs/Fri with potentially light winds

Recap

Small surf early Thursday built in size during the day with decent 3ft sets at Middleton in the afternoon and 1-2ft waves along the Mid Coast, however conditions became bumpy during the day as early light winds freshened from the south. We’ve seen better surf today with light to moderate onshore winds down south for the most part, and 3ft sets persisting at Middleton. The Mid Coast has been very slow, though occasionally 1-2ft with clean offshore conditions early ahead of afternoon sea breezes. 

This weekend (Nov 16 - 17)

No changes to the weekend outlook.

Saturday morning should offer clean conditions with easing size from today (2-3ft Middleton, smaller later) and strengthening NE tending N’ly then NW winds, ahead of a weak trough crossing the coast mid-afternoon that’ll bring gusty SW winds for a few hours. These winds will probably ease back on dark but it’s not worth scheduling things around.

So make the most of the early session. And expect small, increasingly wind-affected surf on the Mid Coast all day.

A series of stronger fronts will then cross the coast overnight on Saturday through Sunday, bringing strong W/SW winds to all areas. We’ll see a combination of (wind affected) surf across the Mid building from 1-2ft at dawn to somewhere in the stormy 3-5ft range by late afternoon, with small waves on the metro beaches too. Quality will be low but it’ll be a standard winteresque affair. You know the drill.

Victor won’t offer much on Sunday with initially small leftovers and freshening W/NW tending strong W/SW winds through the day. Size will build later but with these conditions it won’t be worth a look.

Next week (Nov 18 onwards)

A deep low south of the state Sunday (see below) will generate a final pulse of S/SW swell for Monday that will favour the South Coast for the most size (bumpy, wind affected 4-6ft, improving a little into the afternoon), though there’ll be plenty of residual surf on the Mid Coast too (2-3ft) - lumpy on top but improving as winds become light by mid-late morning.

Easing wave heights through Tuesday and Wednesday should still be quite strong down south (3-4ft easing to 2-3ft) but we’ll see surf size ease more rapidly along the Mid Coast thanks to the less favourable southerly swell direction. That being said, Tuesday should have some small options.

Local winds should be light on Tuesday but a strengthening high in the Bight is expected to push SE breezes into our region Wednesday which will create issues at Victor. I’ll have more on this in Monday’s update. 

A new groundswell is expected to fill in on Thursday, generated by a strong polar low developing east of Heard Island from Sunday onwards (and gaining strength rapidly below West Oz) - this should kick up inconsistent 3-5ft sets across the South Coast that’ll persist into Friday, and we should see small, inconsistent 1-2ft lines along the Mid Coast on the more favourable parts of the tide - and early indications are for generally light winds and clean conditions (early Thursday may have some leftover wobble from Wednesday’s winds though) . 

Looking beyond this and a small spell is finally on the cards for the following week. 

Have a great weekend! See you Monday.