South Australian Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday November 8th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong groundswell building Saturday, peaking late, easing slowly Sunday
• Plenty of waves across both coasts, with generally favourable winds all day (light/variable and sea breezes)
• More surf Monday for Victor with early light winds, freshening SE through the day
• Easing on the Mid from Sunday onwards, still OK Monday but only small Tues/Wed
• Small new swell for both coasts Thursday, pulsing a little more Friday

Recap

Early Thursday morning offered super inconsistent but clean leftovers on the Mid around 1-2ft for just a few hours (see below) before northerly winds deteriorated conditions. The South Coast offered very good 2-3ft waves at Middleton for most of the morning (see below) ahead of gusty westerly winds that kicked in around lunchtime. Today’s seen initially strong onshore winds in the gulf abate rapidly through the day, with lumpy/clean conditions now showing across the Mid Coast (see below) as the groundswell builds in size. Middleton is also seeing a rapid increase in size this afternoon, though winds are still fresh onshore here.

Fun empty waves on the Mid early Thurs

Middleton Bay looking very erm, un-Middleton Bay Thursday morning

Plenty of lines and improving conditions on the Mid Coast mid-Friday afternoon

This weekend (Nov 9 - 10)

The weekend is still looking great.

Broadly speaking the size trend will be steadily up Saturday, and then slowly down on Sunday, with peak of the cycle expected on dark Saturday.

How big? There’s no need to adjust Wednesday’s outlook, overall we’re looking at surf size along the Mid Coast holding 2-3ft on Saturday, with a few bigger waves expected at the swell magnet reefs with the tidal push Saturday afternoon. Size will slowly ease on Sunday; early 2-3ft sets are possible but it'll be down to a more slow 2ft by the afternoon. Early light winds and sea breezes are expected both days, so conditions should be generally favourable throughout.

Down south, we’re looking at 3-5ft surf at Middleton building to 4-6ft by the afternoon, with the offshore bombies and other regional swell magnets likely to see bigger waves upwards of 6ft to maybe 6-8ft. Expect a slow decline through Sunday.

Conditions also look very good for Victor with light variable winds and afternoon sea breezes both days. Just a gentle reminder: ‘light and variable’ means ‘from any direction’, which could potentially be onshore. But I don’t think it’ll be overly detrimental to the surf. 

Next week (Nov 11 onwards)

Freshening SE winds are expected across the South Coast on Monday though early morning should see periods of lighter conditions (maybe variable too). So I am expecting there to be a decent chance for good waves to persist here.

Fortunately there’s a strong reinforcing swell on the way, from a polar low developing at the tail end of the frontal system responsible for the weekend’s swell. This should rebuild the Middleton region back up to 4-5ft+, before easing through Tuesday with similarly flukey winds (generally moderate onshore, with pockets of variable winds possible). 

This reinforcing swell won’t be ideally aligned for the Mid Coast so we’ll see slowly easing wave heights on Monday, still up to 1-2ft on the more favourable parts of the tide, and then 1ft+ on Tuesday. Conditions will remain clean through the mornings ahead of moderate afternoon sea breezes from the S/SW.

Modest frontal activity trailing behind should maintain plenty of swell for the rest of the week, bottoming out Wednesday (2-3ft Middleton, 0.5-1ft Mid Coast) before pulsing a little higher on Thursday - but southerly winds remain a risk through this period. I’ll revise this in Monday’s notes.

The models are still showing another strong front moving through the Southern Ocean early in the week which will setup a swell renewal for Friday, though they have downgraded a touch so I’m ballparking size range in the 3-4ft range at Middleton for a couple of days around Friday. The Mid Coast should also pick up occasional 1-2ft sets. This will still be a very good result for mid-November.

Long term activity remains quite boisterous with a whole heap of polar lows developing through our swell window, keeping us busy through the last two weeks of spring. 

Have a great weekend!