South Oz Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday November 1st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Great waves at exposed Victor spots on Saturday (only small on the Mid)
• Gusty onshore winds easing Sunday; a late pulse of groundswell may provide some fun lumpy waves on dark
• Fun waves on Monday with a nice swell for both coasts with generally light winds
• Smaller Tuesday but with OK conditions
• More strong swell due next weekend

Recap

The Mid Coast’s maintained small just-rideable waves for the last few days, whilst Victor has seen onshore winds spoil conditions as wave heights have gradually eased.

Small waves persisting on the Mid this afternoon

This weekend (Nov 2 - 3)

Surf size will ease into Saturday, and winds will freshen from the NE before tending N’ly through the day - so the Mid Coast is looking a little lacklustre. Baby waves may provide rideable options for beginners, otherwise it’s not worth worrying about.

Victor looks like a much better bet with slow, inconsistent surf easing from 2ft to 1ft at Middleton as the day progresses, with bigger, better options at Waits, Parsons and Goolwa in the 2-3ft range, brushed clean by offshore winds. 

It’s worth noting that the current onshore flow is modeled to slowly veer SE then E’ly overnight, before tending NE around dawn. So, early morning may retain some surface lumpiness at exposed spots - but it’ll only get better as the day progresses. However the best conditions (later in the afternoon) will coincide with smaller wave heights.

A vigorous front will cross the coast just before midnight, delivering gusty SW winds to all coasts, though strength will ease by dawn Sunday and it’ll continue to abate through the day. In fact, we could have light winds and therefore lumpy conditions by late afternoon.

Sunday will see initially poor quality local windswell across the Mid Coast (2-3ft, easing during the day) however a new groundswell generated by the parent low to the front will arrive very late, and may provide a boost of stronger surf in the few hours before dark (Monday is a safer bet for this). 

Sunday will initially be quite small down south owing to the short swell period and westerly component in the windswell, but the new groundswell should start to show 3-4ft sets at Middleton later in the afternoon, which will coincide with easing winds. 

So the take home message for Sunday is - leave it until very late on both coasts.

Next week (Nov 4 onwards)

The bulk groundswell from this mid-latitude low (see below) will fill in overnight Sunday, and peak early Monday with 2-3ft sets across the Mid and 3-4ft sets at Middleton. 

Fortunately, the front will have cleared well to the east by this time so conditions are looking clean on both coasts with light variable winds and sea breezes. Aim for an early surf for the most size and best conditions. 

Generally light variable winds will persist on Tuesday some a small reinforcing swell from a secondary front (in fact, initially an impressive polar low south of Heard Island today!); this should maintain 3-4ft sets at Middleton, with 1-2ft waves along the Mid Coast. 

Wednesday will see freshening N’ly winds ahead of an afternoon SW change as a weak front clips the coast, along with a small pulse of new long period swell, originating from the aforementioned polar low. Middleton should see inconsistent 2-3ft sets and there’ll probably be some small waves on the Mid too, maybe 1-2ft if we’re lucky -but local winds do look a little funky right now. I’ll take a closer look at this in Monday’s update.

Otherwise, no major swells are on the radar for the rest of the week - but we have a large Southern Ocean low expected to develop south of the continent around this time that should set up a strong swell for the weekend - probably Sunday - with plenty of size expected throughout the state. More on this in Monday’s update.

Have a great weekend!