South Australian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday July 22nd)

Best Days: Today South Coast, tomorrow South Coast, Wednesday morning South Coast, Thursday afternoon and Friday South Coast, Saturday morning South Coast

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate + sized SW groundswell for later today and tomorrow AM, easing, smaller Wed
• Mod-fresh N/NE tending stronger N winds tomorrow, strong N-N/NW Wed
• Reinforcing W'ly swell for the Mid Wed with a building N/NW windswell
• Mix of building W windswell and new moderate sized, mid-period W/SW swell for Thu PM and Fri AM, easing thereafter
• Moderate W/NW winds Thu, strengthening into the PM
• Strengtehning N/NW winds Fri, with fresh N/NW tending S winds Sat
• New W/SW-SW swell on the weekend with tricky winds

Recap

A severe cold front brought a large increase in stormy swell to the gulf on Saturday with plenty of size also seen across the South Coast. The Cape du Couedic wave buoy saw maximum wave heights peaking just below 15m at 14.7m on Saturday morning (right), easing into Sunday.

Yesterday was the pick for the South Coast as winds eased and shifted more offshore from Saturday along with good, easing 4ft sets across Middleton. The Mid Coast was chunky but still onshore and average.

This morning there were still 3ft sets in the mix across the gulf but with an average northerly wind and lots of cross-chop and bump, best across the South Coast and to 4-5ft thanks to the arrival of some stronger groundswell.

This week and weekend (Jul 23 -28)

Today and tomorrow are the best of the coming period for the South Coast regarding size and offshore winds.

Following the weekend’s severe, mid-latitude frontal progression, a trailing and more southward positioned frontal system should generate a reinforcing pulse of SW groundswell for this afternoon and tomorrow morning, easing through the day.

The South Coast should come in around 4-5ft across Middleton with the Mid offering surf to 2ft, easing in consistency through the day.

Conditions will remain bumpy and wind affected on the Mid Coast tomorrow with a moderate to fresh N/NE breeze, strengthening from the N’th during the day while the South Coast will be clean and perfect.

Come Wednesday, a front passing under Western Australia last night and this morning should help maintain 1-2ft sets inside the gulf, while the South Coast looks to ease back from 3ft across Middleton.

Strong N-N/NW winds will favour the South Coast while whipping up a poor quality 2-3ft of northerly windswell inside the gulf through the afternoon.

The strengthening winds will be ahead of a weakening frontal system with it due to move through into the evening and early morning Thursday, leaving moderate W/NW winds that look to quickly strengthen again into the afternoon and evening.

This will be along with some new localised W/SW swell and a better pulse of moderate sized, mid-period W/SW swell for later in the day and Friday morning.

The mid-period swell will be generated by the earlier stages of the front moving through Thursday, with it currently south-west of Western Australia.

Wind strengths will fall below gale-force in the swell generating fetch but we should see fun 3ft sets across Middleton late Thursday and Friday morning with 2ft+ sets across the Mid Coast.

Unfortunately strengthening N/NW winds will create choppy conditions inside the gulf on Friday, best down South, with the weekend seeing fresh N/NW winds due Saturday morning, shifting S into the afternoon as a trough moves through.

At this stage the models diverge on the strength and intensity of this system with GFS showing a stronger low moving through, generating some sizey swell Sunday, but with tricky winds. More on this Wednesday and Friday.

Regardless next week looks smaller and with N winds, but check back next update.