South Australian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday July 15th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Poor surf next three days
• Small clean surf at Victor on Friday
• Average conditions Saturday
• Bumpy building surf on the Mid Sunday, better down south with cross/offshore winds
• Plenty of punchy W'ly swells Mon/Tues/Wed but tricky winds for the Mid (to begin with)

Recap

Saturday and early Sunday delivered good surf across the Victor stretch with solid 4-5ft+ surf Saturday (smaller Sunday) and light winds. The Mid also produced nice 2ft+ waves on Saturday, holding 2ft through Sunday with light winds keeping conditions clean. Today’s seen size ease across the Mid, and onshore winds deteriorate surf conditions down south with smaller surf. 

This week (Jul 16 - 19)

A deep low pressure system near Tasmania is directing strong southerly winds across the South Oz coast. This will continue for the next few days, so Victor will remain a write-off (though, we will see some solid short-range 4-6ft S’ly swells Tues/Wed, with surfable options at novelty spots if you're desperate). 

As for the Mid, local winds will remain fresh side-shore here and with no new groundswell in the water, we’ll only see minor windswells, generally unsurfable due to the short fetch length. It'll be ideal for kiteboarding though.

The recent trough block in the Tasman Sea has also stalled eastward-moving frontal systems in the Southern Indian Ocean, hence the lack of groundswell for the next few days.

However, we’ve got some long range W/SW groundswell due around Thursday, sourced from weekend activity in and around Heard Island longitudes, but it’ll be small on the Mid (inconsistent 1-2ft sets) and despite light local winds down south, the Victor region will retain quite a bit of lumpiness from the strong onshore due over the next 48 hours. Expect 2-3ft sets across this region, maybe some bigger waves earlier leftover from the short range S'ly energy.

Friday’s probably your best chance for a surf this week, with strengthening N/NW winds and a small combo of residual swells at Victor in the 1-2ft range at Middleton, bigger and better at exposed spots. Bear in mind winds will become quite gusty at times and this may take the sheen off things. 

This weekend (Jul 20 - 21)

We’ve got a great winter synoptic pattern setting up for the long term, and the weekend will be right at the start of it.

An overnight W’ly change will deliver W/SW winds for Saturday morning, before trending W’ly through the day and easing. Initially there won’t be much swell trailing the change so expect small weak surf in the gulf and wobbly options at Victor without a lot of size.

Sunday will start to see the first of a series of new W’ly swells fill in to the region, though freshening W/NW tending NW winds will probably deteriorate conditions on the Mid - which is shame as I’m expecting 2-3ft surf by the afternoon. 

Victor should manage better options with Middleton building to 2-3ft, and bigger surf expected at exposed spots.

Let’s fine tune the specifics in Wednesday’s update.

Next week (Jul 22 onwards)

The synoptic pattern for next week is a little unusual, relative to swell prospects. But it’s all somewhat positive.

A series of strong fronts migrating around an amplifying long wave trough will maintain a broad, sustained W/NW flow from South Oz longitudes out to the west of West Oz. Although this doesn’t look very well aimed towards South Oz, its only a few degrees outside of the Mid’s W’ly swell window (see below), and given the long fetch length, should allow the swell energy to efficiently spread back into the gulf. 

Even better, this pattern is expected to last for a few days. So rather than a one-day swell event, we’re looking at pulsing energy from Sunday thru’ Tuesday or Wednesday, which should give you a few opportunities to pick the eyes out of the local wind outlook. 

There’ll also be some W/SW and SW groundswell in the mix from other regions within the storm track. It’s a very broad, slow moving system - not perfectly consolidated by any means (which will keep a lid on max wave heights) but still a good event for South Oz surfers. 

It’s also worth keeping in mind that the dominant W’ly swell direction will attenuate wave heights at Victor quite a bit, so don’t expect heaps of size along the South Coast.

It’s too early to pin down local winds, but the general consensus right now is that Monday will probably retain plenty of W/NW breeze - bumping up the Mid but doing good things at Victor - with Tuesday and Wednesday likely to see better conditions along the Mid as the pressure gradient eases and local wind speeds throttle back. 

Let’s take another look on Wednesday.