South Australian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 19th)

Best Days: Selected spots tomorrow down South, keen surfers Wednesday morning, Mid Coast Saturday, South Coast Sunday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small-mod sized lift in mid-period S/SW swell this afternoon, easing tomorrow and further Wed
• Funky dawn E/NE-NE winds tomorrow, tending SE during the AM, then gusty E/NE into the PM
• N tending S winds mid-PM Wed
• W/NW tending fresh W/SW-SW winds Thu
• Large SW groundswell Fri with strong S/SW winds
• Large, reinforcing S/SW swell Sat with SE tending S/SE winds
• Easing S swell Sun with E/NE-NE tending SE winds

Recap

Saturday looked to offer the best waves down South with clean conditions and light winds, a bit slower yesterday and not as clean with funkier winds. The Mid was tiny all weekend.

Today the surf has started small and lumpy with a little lift in mid-period due this afternoon, better tomorrow morning as it eases and outlined below.

This week and weekend (Feb 20 - 25)

This afternoon's small lift in mid-period energy was generated by a strengthening frontal system under the country on the weekend, with it now well clear of our swell window.

A lift to 2-3ft is due this afternoon across Middleton, easing back from a similar size tomorrow morning but with funky winds. A trough moving into the region looks to bring N/NE-NE winds at dawn, possibly shifting SE and then freshening from the E/NE.

With this try those easterly favourable breaks, while Wednesday will be clean across most breaks with a N'ly offshore and smaller, easing 2ft sets (1-2ft generally).

Thursday looks to be a lay day as the swell bottoms out under W/NW tending fresh W/SW-SW winds as a significant mid-latitude low starts moving in from the west.

As touched on last Friday, this low is due to form under the Bight during this week, with the catalyst for the strong storm being the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Djoungou (currently in the Indian Ocean) drifting south-east into the westerly storm track, combining with a cold front.

The low will deepen rapidly, with a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds due to develop Wednesday evening, south of the Bight in our south-western swell window.

As the low moves under us it'll weaken, but it'll be slow moving, resulting in a prolonged, large groundswell event that will tend more S/SW in direction through the weekend while easing. EC has the low a little weaker than GFS at this stage and less size forecast along with a quicker easing trend. So check back here on Wednesday for a clearer idea on how it's tracking.

Either way it looks safe to say that we'll see large surf in the 6ft range on Friday down South, 2ft+ on the Mid Coast but with strong S/SW winds.

The swell will swing more south into Saturday and still likely be in the 5-6ft range down South but easing from 1-2ft on the Mid Coast as winds shift SE. Sunday looks better down South as the swell eases back from 3-4ft or so and winds shift E/NE-NE during the morning.

Longer term more swell is due mid-late next week though with what looks to be S'ly winds, but check back here Wednesday for the latest.