Flukier period into spring

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

South Australian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday August 28th)

Best Days: Today, South Coast tomorrow, Mid Coast Friday (small), South Coast Friday morning for the keen, South Coast Saturday, South Coast Sunday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Inconsistent SW groundswell building tomorrow afternoon, easing Wed
  • Strengthening N/NW-NW winds tomorrow, W/NW into the PM
  • Fresh SW winds Wed, persisting Thu but weaker
  • Moderate sized mid-period SW swell arriving late Thu, peaking Fri with variable S/SE winds down South, increasing
  • Light E/SE winds ahead of sea breezes on the Mid Fri
  • Easing surf Sat with fresh N/NE tending weaker N/NW winds
  • Smaller easing surf Sun with N/NW winds
  • Mod-large W/SW groundswell building Mon with strengthening W/NW winds

Recap

The Mid Coast offered the best surf into Saturday with clean 1-2ft sets, dropping back to 1-1.5ft yesterday and even smaller today.

The South Coast offered plenty of size Saturday but light breezes created lumpy/bumpy conditions, deteriorating yesterday with freshening S'ly winds. This morning winds are light and conditions are smooth and glassy though lumpy with sets to 2-3ft hanging off Middleton. Sea breezes are only expected to be light this afternoon keeping conditions decent down South.

Glassy, fun waves this morning

This week and weekend (Aug 29 – Sep 3)

After an excellent autumn and winter the coming week looks a little iffy and dicey with troughy weather, shifting winds and weaker swells.

A small, inconsistent pulse of SW groundswell is due to build through tomorrow, peak overnight and ease slowly Wednesday, generated by a distant but healthy fetch of severe-gale to gale W/NW winds that fired up to the south-west of Western Australia late last week.

A little lift back to 2ft to occasionally 3ft is due across Middleton into tomorrow afternoon, easing from a similar size Wednesday, with tiny 0.5-1ft sets max on the Mid Coast.

Strengthening N/NW-NW winds are due tomorrow morning, shifting W/NW into the afternoon favouring protected spots, while Wednesday will be a lay day as a front brings a fresh SW change before dawn.

Onshore winds look to persist into Thursday out of the SW tending lighter S on Friday and likely variable through the morning along with some new, moderate sized mid-period SW swell.

The mid-period energy is starting to be generated by a strong polar frontal system that's currently around the Heard Island region.

The frontal system will weaken while moving slowly east, directing strong W-W/SW winds through our south-western swell window producing a moderate sized, prolonged mid-period W/SW swell from Friday through Saturday morning, easing into the afternoon.

Middleton should come in around 4ft on Friday, a little less consistent but 3-4ft Saturday morning while the Mid Coast looks to offer surf either side of 1.5ft.

Clean conditons are due on the Mid Coast Friday morning with light offshores, lumpy to down South with the variable breeze, cleaner Saturday with N/NE offshore winds down South, tending N/NW into the afternoon with bumpy conditions on the Mid Coast.

Smaller, easing surf is expected on Sunday from 2ft to possibly 3ft across Middleton under N/NW winds, tiny on the Mid Coast.

Moving into next week, we're looking at a moderate-large W/SW groundswell for Monday afternoon, easing Tuesday, generated by a strong mid-latitude low firing up, under Western Australia late this week.

We're looking at a great fetch of gale to possibly severe-gale W/SW winds projected east, but the swell looks to arrive with W-NW winds as the remnants of the low and following frontal systems move in from the west.

We'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday both size and wind wise.