South Australian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday July 14th)

Best Days: Tomorrow both coasts (beginners on the Mid), South Coast Wednesday, Friday morning South Coast, Saturday protected spots down South, Sunday, next week

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing SW swell tomorrow with a small reinforcing SW groundswell for the PM, fading Wed
• Local offshore winds tomorrow AM, variable into the PM on the Mid, fresher E/NE down South
• Fresh N/NE tending N/NW winds Wed
• Late increase in inconsistent W/SW groundswell Wed, peaking Thu with fresh SW tending stronger W/SW winds
• Easing swell Fri AM, with a building windswell for the PM
• Strong NW tending SW winds Fri
• Mod-large SW groundswell Sat, easing and smaller Sun
• W/SW winds Sat (likely W/NW down the South Coast in the AM)
• N/NW-NW winds Sun
• Mod-large W/SW groundswell for early next week with N/NW-NW winds

Recap

The Mid Coast continued to over-perform on the weekend, hovering in the mostly expected 1-1.5ft range but the magnets saw moments of 2ft sets and this morning we’ve got similar sized surf.

The South Coast was best Saturday morning and to 3ft, bigger yesterday but with an E/SE wind.

This morning is much cleaner and better with solid sets still hanging in at 4ft across Middleton. Afternoon sea breezes will develop across both coasts through the day as the swell eases.

Plenty of size across both regions this morning

This week and weekend (Jun 15 - 20)

We’ve got easing surf over the coming days following a peak in energy yesterday from the elongated, healthy polar frontal progression that fired up through last week.

One final pulse of reinforcing SW groundswell is due tomorrow afternoon, generated by a trailing front producing a pre-frontal fetch of NW gales aimed towards the polar shelf on the weekend.

This wasn’t ideally aimed for the South Australian region and will impact the South East more than Victor but it should slow the easing trend, with Middleton easing from 2-3ft tomorrow, then down from 2ft on Wednesday morning.

The Mid Coast should still be 1-1.5ft tomorrow morning but then easing. Conditions look great for both coasts with light local offshore winds, tending variable on the Mid Coast into the afternoon and E/NE down South. Wednesday will be best down South with fresher N/NE tending N/NW winds.

Looking at Thursday, and a trough is expected to bring a S/SW change for the morning, shifting back to the W/SW through the day and strengthening ahead of an approaching front. We’ll also see an inconsistent, long-range W/SW groundswell in the water, with it possibly showing later Wednesday.

The source of this swell was a strong and persistent polar frontal progression that developed south of South Africa last week, pushing east along the polar shelf before weakening to the south-west of Western Australia today.

It’ll be inconsistent but we should see Middleton coming in at a strong 4ft with the Mid Coast offering 2ft sets on the favourable parts of the tide, easing into Friday morning.

Unfortunately a secondary front moving in Friday will bring a strong NW tending S/SW-SW change around midday, leaving the Mid Coast choppy, with a morning window for the South Coast.

Some additional W/SW swell will be generated by this front Friday afternoon across the Mid Coast, ahead of a larger SW groundswell Saturday morning.

This will be thanks to the earlier incarnations of the front moving through Friday, that being a fetch of gale-force W/NW winds developing around a low just east of the Heard Island region today, projecting east while maintaining strength, only weakening south-west of us Thursday evening.

The swell should arrive Friday evening and peak Saturday morning with good 6ft sets across Middleton with 2-3ft sets on the Mid Coast but with moderate to fresh W/SW winds. Protected spots down South will be the go with a likely morning W/NW breeze.

Sunday should see better N/NW-NW winds down South as the swell eases.

We’re looking at another pulse of moderate to large sized W/SW groundswell from a secondary frontal progression firing up between the Heard Island region and Western Australia later this week and weekend, arriving early/mid next week along with favourable winds from the north-wester quadrant, but check back here on Wednesday for an update on this.