South Australian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 4th November)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong but easing surf at Victor early Sat with light NE winds (get in early before the sea breeze)
• Another strong groundswell Sat PM, easing Sun, with light winds Sun AM ahead of a'noon sea breezes
• Only small on the Mid this weekend
• Fun clean waves at Victor all of next week, rebuilding into Wed/Thurs
• Small on the Mid early next week, slightly better options Wed-Fri though not a lot of size

Recap

There’s been plenty of surf at Victor over the last few days, though onshore winds created bumpy conditions on Thursday. This morning saw much better conditions with early light offshores, and a strong pulse of new swell building from 4-5ft to 5-6ft. Onshore winds kicked in just after lunch and conditions are once again bumpy. The Mid has been generally very small though the mornings have been clean with light offshore winds. Today’s new swell has increased wave heights a touch into the afternoon (see below), though winds are now onshore so it’s bumpy too.

This weekend (Nov 5 - 6)

We’ve got some more great waves due over the weekend.

A weak high pressure ridge will swing winds back around to a light NE breeze, though south-east sea breezes are expected through the day, so don’t dawdle - early morning will offer the best window of conditions.

As for surf, the current groundswell will slowly ease back overnight and into Saturday morning, ahead of a renewal of long period energy after lunch, generated by a strong fetch at the tail end of our recent Southern Ocean conveyor belt.

This activity looks really good on paper, though I’m cautious of suggesting any more size than we’re seeing today (i.e. 4-6ft across the Victor stretch) as the source storm track was/is somewhat unusual: starting off as a broad belt of off-axis N/NW gales to the south-east of Madagascar, before strengthening a polar low and front along the ice shelf as it tracked below Western Australia, and exiting our swell window today as a broad westerly flow under South Australia (see below).

I’m genuinely pretty excited about what we’ll see the coming days from this next pulse, as all of the storm generating activity has happened quite some distance from the coast, which will allow it to organise into really well defined swell lines once it filters into Bass Strait. However, Saturday afternoon’s increase will coincide with the afternoon sea breeze, so Sunday morning may provide the best window of bigger waves.

So, enough waffle - let’s fly some numbers.

I’m expecting today’s swell to ease back to 3-4ft on the Middleton stretch on Saturday morning (bigger at exposed spots), with a slight wobble through the lineup from this afternoon's onshores. After lunch we'll see a new pulse of long period swell that will will show best late in the day, pushing 4-6ft across most exposed breaks by dinnertime ahead of an overnight peak. 

This swell direction is expected to be quite south so confidence isn’t high for the Mid, though we should see some minor residual energy on Saturday morning (from today) and the new pulse should push through a few little waves. Keep your expectations low though.

Sunday morning will see surf size slowly abating, still very small on the Mid but 4-6ft across the Middleton stretch, easing steadily to 3-4ft during the day. Again, make it early before the afternoon sea breeze kicks in. 

Next week (Nov 7 onwards)

Next week looks very good too. 

The broader outlook is for a continuation of high pressure over the state and light winds tending NE through the mornings, then northerly on Wednesday ahead of a shallow southerly change for Thursday. 

In addition to this, we’ll see fun sized back-to-back groundswells, sourced from polar lows. These storms are expected to be quite strong (great for swell potential) and well aligned for our region, but unfortunately they'll be most active in the far reaches of our swell window, which will temper wave heights across the South Oz coast due to significant wave decay.

So, expect a slow decrease in size from Sunday through Monday (early 3-4ft sets from Middleton to Day Street, easing to 2-3ft during the day), persisting in this size range Tuesday, before restrengthening in the 2-3ft+ range Wednesday, holding Thursday morning, ahead of a slightly bigger long period SW swell due Thursday afternoon and Friday that should nudge the 3-4ft range. 

Winds look good for the second half of the week with a weak synoptic flow, but most days will probably only see favourable conditions in the early mornings, as we’re in strong sea breeze territory right now, sometimes kicking in early. 

On the Mid Coast, these swells will produce small rideable waves most days, though Wednesday, Thursday and Friday all have the most potential for a little more size that should push through most phases of the tide. I’ll be surprised if we see much more than inconsistent 2ft sets later next week though (it’ll be much smaller earlier in the week).

So… get into it!