South Australian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 29th October)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Nothing great this weekend, Sun the pick with small surf down south and light winds
• Nice new groundswell later Mon, peaking Tues with great surf at Victor under NE winds
• Moderate chance for fun small waves on the Mid late Mon/Tues
• Nice round of swell for the Mid lining up next weekend and the following week

Recap

Thursday offered some small ‘leftover’ groundswell from Wednesday, though interestingly it wasn’t really visible in the water mid-week (when Wed’s FC Notes were prepared). Seems that the bulk surfable part of that particular swell event was located some 36 hours behind the initial swell front - which arrived Tuesday afternoon - so the small swell expected Wednesday (in Monday's notes) that didn’t show, eventually did - but a day later than expected. Unusual, but hey! At only one foot it’s not worth getting too fussed about. Victor was small on Thursday with early onshore winds becoming light though the morning, then tending gusty from the SE into the afternoon as thunderstorms developed. Today we’ve seen almost no surf on the Mid under a light to moderate southerly breeze, whilst building short range S’ly swells at Victor hard provided average waves under fresh onshore. All in all, pretty average stuff.

This weekend (Oct 30 - 31)

Not much to look forward to this weekend. 

Winds should become light across all coasts as a high pressure system moves in from the west, though Victor will see residual lumpiness through Saturday - we really need a stiff N’ly to iron out today’s bumps, as as that’s unlikely, it’ll be a slow process on the road to improvement. 

All of the energy in the water today is short range S’ly windswell, so quality will be very low at Victor and surf size will rapidly ease through the day - maybe some early 2-3ft sets at Middleton, down to 1-2ft by the afternoon. Expect tiny conditions to persist on the Mid.

On Sunday, a small new swell will fill in to the region though it probably won’t lift Middleton much above a slow, inconsistent 1-2ft. It should be cleaner with light winds tending some form of N’ly. So, hit up the swell magnets for the best waves. 

This swell probably won’t do much on the Mid, so keep your expectations low.

Next week (Nov 1 onwards)

The first half of next week looks very good, for Victor at least.

Monday will start off a little undersized, but the leading edge of a multi-front swell event is due to push through just before dawn, and we should see building size through the day ahead of a peak overnight or early Tuesday.

Monday’s winds look good for most coasts (light and variable with sea breezes), but a developing trough to the west will swing this wind around to the NE on Tuesday - ideal for most spots at Victor. 

At its peak - more likely early Tuesday, but also a possibility late Monday - we should see 3ft+ surf at Middleton, with bigger waves in the 4-5ft range at the regional swell magnets. 

The Mid Coast won’t pick up a great deal of size, but we may see 1-2ft sets through the gulf on Monday afternoon and at times on Tuesday. I’m a little concerned that the swell direction may have too much south to properly allow the swell to swing into the gulf (which may negatively affected size prospects on the Mid), so don’t get your hopes up for anything especially worthwhile. But it’ll be worth closely monitoring.

Wednesday will see surf size rapidly easing from Tuesday, but winds will should from the north ahead of a late onshore change. So, an early surf at the Victor swell magnets looks like a good choice. 

Onshore are then expected Thursday and Friday as a weak front slips to the south of the state, though we’ll concurrently see an increase in new W/SW swell from a strong frontal progression to the SW of WA, starting from this weekend onwards and peaking mid-next week as an amplifying Long Wave Trough. 

Although positioned a long distance from our coast (see below), this looks like a really good set up for an extended period of fun surf on the Mid Coast, initially showing late Thurs/Fri with small lines, but then pushing through strongly next weekend and into the start of the following week with a couple of days in the 2-3ft range.  

As such, this time frame is well worth pencilling into your diary.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!