South Australian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 27th March)

Best Days: Thurs: rapidly easing, but clean at Victor with light winds. Late Fri/Sat/Sun: plenty of surf but bumpy with mainly onshore winds. Next week: plenty of surf for Victor (only small on the Mid) with generally good winds. 

Recap: Large surf early Tuesday eased steadily from 6ft+, with early cross-offshore winds cleaning things up at Victor ahead of a redeveloping onshore breeze throughout the day. The Mid saw improving 2-3ft surf with abating winds. Today has delivered great waves ahead of the afternoon sea breeze, with morning offshore winds across both coasts, small clean waves on the Mid and larger surf down south. 

This week (Mar 28 - 29)

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Smaller surf is expected on Thursday with winds tending light N’ly as a series of fronts approach from the west. There’ll be fun waves at exposed Victor beaches though it’ll be considerably smaller and weaker than what we’ve seen in the last couple of days.

Don’t expect much more than a small residual line of weak swell along the Mid Coast on Thursday.

On Friday, a gusty front will push through the state, strengthening onshore winds from the W/SW and building wave heights from the local fetch, in addition to a decent underlying groundswell that’ll peak late afternoon or early Saturday.  

This swell is being generated by a broad, slow moving polar low and front just off the ice shelf (well below WA) today (see chart below); it’s not ideally positioned for the Mid Coast but we should see late afternoon pushing 2-3ft (unfortunately, it’ll be bumpy with the onshore breeze).

Middleton is expected to increase into the 3-5ft range by the end of the day, though it’ll be less than half that size early morning, with an outside chance for a brief W/NW wind at dawn. 

This weekend (Mar 30 - 31)

Friday’s swell is expected to hold into Saturday - in fact I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a few bigger sneaky sets at Victor early in the day - but we’ve got potential issues with local winds.

Although Friday’s change will have cleared to the east, and another front will rear up from the west, we may see lingering SW breezes across most coasts. They’ll swing W’ly through the morning, possibly W/NW so I reckon we’ll see a steady improvement as the day progresses. 

Along the Mid Coast there’ll be a little less onshore breeze but it’ll likely retain plenty of wobble, and with 2-3ft sets on the more favourable parts of the tide, there’ll be rideable options all day. 

Saturday’s swell will ease a little into Sunday, and local winds will again moderate in the wake of the overnight frontal passage. Expect size to hold 3-5ft across theMiddleton to Day Street stretch, possibly easing throughout the day, but it’ll remain bumpy with mainly cross-onshore winds. 

Slightly smaller surf is likely along the Mid with lumpy 2ft+ waves on the afternoon tidal push.

Next week (April 1st onwards)

Unfortunately, the latest model guidance has eased back the size, strength and position of the Southern Ocean low generating a new groundswell for Monday. 

We’re still looking at some great waves at Victor with solid 4ft+ surf and light winds throughout the day, but the Mid will remain small with clean 2ft sets. A gradual decrease is expected through Tuesday with similar light winds. 

The longer term outlook remains very active, though with a blocking ridge across the SE corner of the country keeping swell generating systems away from our near swell window. However, the storm track will be quite busy further west and we’re looking at another strong swell arriving Wed/Thurs that should produce more great waves for the South Coast (local winds pending.. NE breeze are a possibility). Small clean peelers are likely across the Mid Coast all week.

More on this in Friday’s update.