South Australian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 29th October)

Best Days: South Coast tomorrow morning, Wednesday morning though not as clean, Thursday morning, Mid Coast Saturday, both coasts Sunday

Recap

Poor waves over the weekend with no size and average winds. Today we've seen a slight lift in swell from the SW, with tiny peelers on the Mid Coast, though poor onshore conditions down South.

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This week and weekend (Oct 30 – Nov 4)

Winds should improve over the coming mornings along with some fun pulses of groundswell.

The first which may be seen later today and will peak tomorrow morning was generated late last week and over the weekend.

A pre-frontal fetch of NW gales was followed up by polar strong to gale-force W/SW winds, generating a longer-period SW groundswell for tomorrow morning.

We should see fun 3ft sets off Middleton, with 0.5-1ft waves continuing across the Mid Coast, but winds will swing light N/NE through the morning (NE on the Mid Coast) creating improving conditions down South, but there'll still likely be a fair bit of lump, ironing our as the day progresses ahead of sea breezes.

Into Wednesday we'll see our secondary slightly stronger long-period SW groundswell fill in.

There's been a slight downgrade in the size expected off this swell, with the low forecast to be broader last week, but instead it's a tight system generating a concentrated fetch of severe-gale W'ly winds, weakening while tracking east-southeast in direction.

The storm will expand a little in scope through our south-western swell window, with a long-period SW groundswell due to fill in Wednesday, arriving through the mid-morning and building to 3-4ft off Middleton with 1ft to possibly 2ft sets developing with the incoming tide on the Mid into the afternoon.

Winds look to go back a little more to the east on Wednesday morning, likely tending NE through the morning before sea breezes kick in, while Thursday looks much better with a bit more strength in the offshore out of the N/NE, tending N/NW and then W/NW into the afternoon.

The swell will be on the ease from a fun 3ft or so off Middleton, if not for the odd sneaky bigger one early, 1ft+ on the Mid Coast.

Friday will be smaller and more so around 2ft off Middleton and with an early W/NW offshore ahead of a W/SW change as a strong storm pushes in from the west. The Mid Coast should hang around 1ft+ as a small W/SW swell from a weak fetch of strong W/SW winds south-west of WA fills in.

But coming back to the front and we'll see this start as a polar system, projecting a fetch of W/SW gales up towards WA, and then pushing east south of the Bight and through western swell window before strengthening in our southern swell window, south of us on Friday.

What should result is a moderate sized W/SW groundswell for Saturday, tending more SW through the afternoon across the South West, resulting in increasing size.

The Mid Coast should come in at 2-3ft on the favourable parts of the tide, with building surf to 4-5ft across Middleton down South (3-4ft in the morning). Winds at this stage look best for the Mid Coast with a ridge of high pressure moving in behind Friday's change bringing S/SE offshores. Sunday looks cleaner down South as the swells eases, with plenty more action due into next week. More on this Wednesday.