South Australian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 15th June)

Best Days: Mon: lumpy but solid and improving surf at Victor. Tues/Wed: small clean surf at Victor.

Recap: Plenty of swell on the Mid Coast but strong onshore winds have kept quality to a minimum. Periods of W’ly winds have allowed for a few options at Victor as swell size has built considerably. 

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This weekend (Jun 16 - 17)

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Note: Today’s Forecaster Notes will be brief, as Craig is away on annual leave.

No surprises for the weekend, with a significant cold outbreak impacting the southern states thanks to a large, slow moving low south of Tasmania. We’ll see gale force winds from the SW early Saturday, veering more towards the south into Sunday.

The Mid Coast is currently seeing a mix of swells generated over previous days (plus a lot of local windswell) but the primary low in question is now positioned outside of its swell window, with all new swell for the weekend being too south in direction to bend around Kangaroo Island. As such, we’ll see easing size through the gulf all weekend despite winds holding strength rom the southern quadrant.

Conversely, the South Coast is expected to see a kick in size from later Saturday through Sunday, because the strongest winds around the Tasmanian low are only just beginning to develop, just to the SW of Tasmania - generating a fresh, strong pulse of new energy. This fetch will be quite southerly in direction and the resulting swell direction will also be out of the south.

Unfortunately, all of this swell will largely go to waste at Victor thanks to accompanying southerly gales. 

So, your best option this weekend is to look for a novelty wave down south - though to be honest, it’s not going to be anything amazing in the size department (6ft+ sets at exposed spots) so all of those unusual waves close to Victor will be pretty small, if they’re breaking at all. 

Otherwise, there’ll be bumpy but slowly easing surf across the Mid Coast all weekend in the 2-3ft range - the upper end of this size range more likely Saturday than Sunday. Keep your expectations low. 

Next week (June 18 onwards)

Easing winds and swells are expected from Monday as the Southern Ocean low tracks to the east, away from our swell window. Although we’ll probably see light variable winds by Monday morning, it’ll take another day or so for Victor to properly clean up from the weekend’s onshores. Expect size to ease from 4-6ft to 3-4ft throughout the day, with OK lumpy surf around a few spots, improving during the day. There’ll be small clean leftovers on the Mid Coast to start the working week too, but nothing overly special.

Freshening northerlies are then expected Tuesday and early Wednesday as a weakening front approaches from the west. Unfortunately, we’re not expecting any major new swells through this time period - the current atmospheric pattern is in a bit of a block, and upstream through our swell window there’s not a lot of favourable storm action east of Heard Island right now. 

Interestingly, despite the lack of major storm systems, the weakening front entering the western Bight around Monday (and its earlier parent system to the SW over the weekend) should be enough to maintain small waves across the Mid Coast through the middle of the week. Tuesday will be a write-off with freshening northerlies but Wednesday and Thursday stand a greater chance at more favourable winds as the front passes. Perhaps some slow 1-2ft sets on the more favourable parts of thr tide if we're lucky.  

Otherwise, aim for Victor these days as we’ll see small clean surf at Waits, Parsons and Goolwa.

The regional block does look like it’ll break down through the first half of next week though, which should lead to a renewal of strong swell activity from about Friday onwards, persisting for a at least three of four days - with very good surf potential for all coasts throughout this time frame. More on this in Monday’s update.