South Australian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 10th January)

Best Days: South Coast tomorrow, Mid Coast into the afternoon, protected spots early Saturday down South, Mid Coast Sunday, both coasts Wednesday

Recap

A continuation of fun surf across the Mid Coast, coming in at 1-2ft in the morning and pulsing to a consistent 2ft with cross-shore winds into the afternoon with a reinforcing W/SW swell. The South Coast was average with onshore winds along with an increase in size through the afternoon.

This morning the swell was hanging in with clean 1-2ft sets on the Mid Coast and OK but lumpy 3ft surf off Middleton, cleaner now under a NE breeze.

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This week and weekend (Jan 11 – 14)

This morning's swell should start to ease this afternoon and we'll see it continuing to drop through tomorrow morning as winds improve further for the South Coast.

A moderate to fresh N/NE wind looks to persist most of the day, tending variable into the afternoon as Middleton drops from 2ft to occasionally 3ft through the morning. The Mid Coast is expected to ease back to the 1-1.5ft range, most consistent on the afternoon incoming tide.

Into the afternoon some new SW groundswell is due, with a stronger pulse Friday morning, generated by a good flurry of polar frontal activity south-southwest of WA earlier this week.

We should see Middleton building back to a more consistent 3ft on the sets, holding a similar size Friday, while the Mid looks to persist at 1-1.5ft.

The window of opportunity for clean waves Friday morning looks very limited, with an onshore SW change due shortly after dawn. Therefore make the most of tomorrow.

This change will be related to a weak front pushing through the Bight with no major swell due off it, though the Mid should continue around 1-1.5ft along with onshore W'ly tending SW winds.

A secondary stronger front racing in from the west should produce a reinforcing W/SW swell for Sunday to a stronger 2ft. These swells will be really west in nature and not ideal for the South Coast, with a small increase in windswell Saturday afternoon with the SW change. The morning looks to be a small 2ft off Middleton with an early W/NW breeze.

Sunday should reveal a bit more size down South to 2-3ft off Middleton but gusty S/SE winds in the wake of Saturday's change will create poor conditions. The Mid Coast however will be clean and fun all day.

Into early next week we'll see the W/SW swell fade along with persistent SE winds, limiting surfing options.

Next week onwards (Jan 15 onwards)

Longer term we look to the 'bombing low' in the Southern Ocean between WA and Heard Island later this week.

While a fair distance away, this system is expected to be placed more favourably in our swell window, with a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/NW winds being projected along through our south-western swell window.

The slow moving nature and persistent fetch of severe-gale to storm-force winds will help produce a moderate to large long-period SW groundswell that should be seen to build Tuesday and peak Wednesday.

Middleton looks to peak at an inconsistent 4-5ft, with the odd 6ft set likely, while the direction won't be ideal for the Mid though we should still see 1-2ft surf. Winds at this stage look favourable for both coasts, but more on this Friday.