South Australian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 22nd December)

Best Days: South Coast Saturday morning (Mid Coast keen surfers for tiny waves), South Coast keen surfers Tuesday morning, swell magnets early Wednesday

Recap

Great waves down South yesterday with a strong S/SW swell to 3-4ft off Middleton with variable winds through the morning, while the Mid Coast offered clean fun 2ft sets.

This morning the swell was back to a tiny 1-1.5ft, swallowed by the morning high tide, while the South Coast was super fun again with clean conditions and sets to 3ft off Middleton.

This afternoon we should see a new pulse of long-period S/SW groundswell filling in down South, produced by a strong polar frontal system firing up on the tail of the severe low linked to yesterday's waves. Middleton should kick back to 3-4ft as the Mid hangs in at 1-1.5ft though with afternoon sea breezes. Lighter winds near dark should provide fun surf.

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This weekend and next week (Dec 23 - 29)

This afternoon's pulse of long-period S/SW groundswell is expected to peak overnight and ease slowly from 3-4ft off Middleton, and 1-1.5ft across the Mid Coast. Conditions will be great through the morning again on both coasts with a NE-N/NE breeze on the Mid Coast and N/NE breezes down South, giving into weak onshore breezes late morning and stiffer sea breezes through the afternoon ahead of a stronger S'ly change.

This change will be linked to a high pressure system moving in from the west and this will spell the end of our great run of swell and winds.

We'll continue to see plenty of size across Middleton Sunday to 3ft, but fresh to strong S/SE winds will create poor conditions while also adding some windswell to the mix. The Mid Coast will be cleaner but tiny and only to 1ft and fading.

A weak but broad and persistent polar front projecting slowly towards Victoria over the coming days should generate some reinforcing S/SW swell for Monday to 3ft+ off Middleton.

Unfortunately winds will remain poor and gusty out of the SE tending E/SE, not worth the drive from Adelaide (tiny to flat on the Mid Coast).

Tuesday will become cleaner, though be quite peaky with a morning E/NE-NE breeze and easing surf from 2ft to possibly 3ft across Middleton, better at Waits and Parsons.

A straight offshore N/NE'ly will be seen Wednesday though the swell will be tiny at Middleton, with the odd stray 2ft set at Waits and Parsons.

Longer term we're looking at some very inconsistent long-range W/SW groundswell from Thursday, though with no major size for either coast. Better size and consistency is expected late week and next weekend as the frontal activity pushes closer towards us, but more on this Monday. Have a happy and safe Christmas!